Beware the Young Studs

So, you’re beginning to prepare for your Fantasy Baseball Draft and the annual dilemma of when to start assembling your pitching staff rears its ugly head. “Can I really let Tim Lincecum get past my early, second round pick?”  “If Johan Santana falls to the fourth round, is he worth the risk?” And, finally, “When do I look to grab one of the young guns that could put my staff over the top?”  Well, to answer the first two, Lincecum would be a tough pass at that point in any Fantasy Baseball Draft and Johan is a steal if he drops to the fourth round.  As for the third question, there’s a little more to consider than potential.

In The Sporting News 2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview, Brad Pinkerton wrote a terrific piece on young pitchers titled, Folding Aces.  In it, he analyzed the performance of these rising stars in the season after their stellar debuts.  He presented a formula for targeting those young hurlers that could reasonably be expected to turn up on the disabled list or suffer a disappointing campaign.  He had my interest when he presented those hurlers that violated his criteria in 2007.  Ian Kennedy, Dustin McGowan, Fausto Carmona, and Yovani Gallardo all turned out to be disappointing selections for Fantasy Baseball owners in 2008.  His ’09 list was equally clairvoyant, as Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Manny Parra (above) either underperformed or landed on the DL.  So, what are these criteria and who’s on the list for 2010?

Pinkerton looked for pitchers 25 and younger who experienced a jump of 30 innings pitched over their previous career high in pro ball. Next, he eliminated any who’d registered 200 IP in any Major League season or had exceeded 35 career starts. What was left was a roster of hurlers with the potential to destroy your season.  Now, it’s not a perfect indicator,as evidenced by the ’09 performance of Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw.  What it does tell you, though, is that you’re running a big risk if you take more than one of the following guys:

Max Scherzer
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Wade Davis
Joba Chamberlain
Mat Latos
Trevor Cahill
Ricky Romero
Marc Rzepczynski
Derek Holland

Moonlight Graham’s Top 20 Pitchers

Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
C.C. Sabathia
Zack Greinke
Felix Hernandez
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
Dan Haren
Javier Vasquez
Chris Carpenter
Josh Beckett
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
John Lackey
Jon Lester
Tommy Hanson
Jair Jurrjens
Matt Cain

It’s been a disappointing Major League season for those fans that enjoy September pennant races as each division seems to be locked up and only the NL Wild Card spot is still being contested.  We might see one more divisional race if the Twins can sweep the Tigers this weekend but, with their pitching, it’s not likely.  For baseball purists, the final month has been a letdown.

The absence of close races will have a bearing on Fantasy Baseball owners also, as they’ll be forced to keep an eye on star players that are vital to their Fantasy Baseball teams being rested as their MLB team preps for the post season.  So, if you’re looking to pick up an important point or two in the W or ERA categories, be aware that C.C. Sabathia or Chris Carpenter might be passed over in order to get a little more rest before the playoffs.  Likewise, dependable veterans on teams out of the mix; guys like Paul Konerko and Miguel Tejada, to name two, may find a seat on the bench as their teams audition younger players.  The bottom line is, if you’re lucky enough to still be in the running for your league title, it is more important to keep an eye on the box scores now than at any other point in the season.

Streaking

Arizona’s Juan Gutierrez is making a case to be the D’Backs’ 2010 closer with 4 S and 1 W in September… Tommy Hanson has a 0.45 ERA over three September starts for Atlanta… Kansas City’s Robinson Tejeda is 2-0 over three starts with 18 K.  When did you ever think he’d be a piece of your puzzle?… Seattle’s Ryan Rowland-Smith has gone 7 IP in each of his last four starts while posting a 2.61 ERA…

Stalling

Houston’s Miguel Tejada will see his playing time decrease as the Astros audition Tommy Manzelli at SS… Chad Billingsley’s most recent turn in the rotation was skipped as he has struggled over the last month… Despite extended rest, Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo was ripped in his last start and could be shut down for the rest of the year… Even though his last outing was a strong one, Chris Tillman may be shut down by the Orioles as they try to limit his IP… Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona is 1-5, 5.48 in his last nine starts… Jorge Posada will miss the weekend after being suspended for his ridiculous display during the Yankees- Blue Jays game on Wednesday… A.J. Burnett continues to struggle, going 1-4, 6.75 over his last six starts.  It’s been awhile since any of his teammates hit him with a pie… Take the 5-0 record given you by Pedro Martinez and run.  In his last start, the fragile Martinez threw 130 pitches, the most he’s thrown since 2002.  That followed a 119 pitch game in his previous outing.  You can’t expect him to hold up under the strain…

Sick Bay

Washington C Jesus Flores is done for the year after shoulder surgery… Justin Morneau will be out for the year with a stress fracture in his back… Kevin Youkilis has missed three straight with back spasms and could be out through the weekend… Detroit’s Jarrod Washburn is out with a bad knee… Yankees’ starter Andy Pettitte will miss a turn due to shoulder fatigue… Texas OF Josh Hamilton may miss the rest of the year with back issues…