By Eddie Mayrose

If you’re a Wagstaff follower, you’ve heard this refrain before.  “Grab the best Fantasy Receivers as early as possible.”  It’s a theory put into practice every year by the Professor as he constructs his Fantasy Football Roster; one that has annually provided a tremendous edge over Fantasy Owners locked into the standard system of front-loading running backs.  Here’s why.

It’s a widely accepted (yet flawed) idea that the elite ball carriers produce more than the best wideouts.  While I’ll agree that running backs are guaranteed significantly more touches, it doesn’t guarantee better production.  Texans’ star Andre Johnson was a Wagstaff first rounder in every draft.  Compare his 1,500 YDS and 9 TD to Stephen Jackson’s 1,300 YDS and 4 TD.  Now, it’d be crazy to pass on Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew with any of the first three picks but, after that, guys like Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss are way more likely to deliver their career averages than what’s left in the backfield.  Not to mention that running backs are infinitely more likely to get hurt.

So, take advantage of those in your Fantasy Football League that are mired in the conventional wisdom.  Stockpile two of the elite receivers before anyone realizes how that the position has thinned out and then scoop up mid-round running backs who’ll still help your team.

Fantasy Football Star

We’ve already mentioned Johnson, Fitzgerald and Moss.  The next guy on the Wagstaff list is Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson.  He actually may be the most talented guy on our list and with QB Matt Stafford gaining experience behind an improved offensive line, Calvin is ready to explode.

Fantasy Football Stiff

Don’t get trapped by the notion that Santonio Holmes is a bargain because he’ll go late in your draft.  He’ll miss four weeks, more than a third of your Fantasy Football season, and come back to an unfamiliar offensive scheme led by the erratic Mark Sanchez.  Holmes is likely to struggle into November.

Fantasy Football Sleeper

One of the best NCAA receivers in the last decade, Michael Crabtree never really got cooking last year after a long contract holdout.  In 2010, with a full training camp under his belt, Crabtree will make Frank Gore the Niners’ second-most important player.

Fantasy Football Slipper

While San Diego’s Vincent Jackson is one of the league’s rising stars, his contract holdout as well as the Chargers’ depleted offensive line will likely take his production down a few notches. Don’t get caught paying 2010 prices for his 2009 stats.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Wide Receivers

New York Jets Suddenly Not “Same Old”

This time it was different.  The Jets loss to the Colts in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game just didn’t feel as bad as the litany of playoff debacles that have dotted the team’s history.  There was no fumble on the opening kickoff or a roughing the passer call with a win virtually sealed.  There was neither mud nor A.J. Duhe.  The Head Coach was not so frightened as to forget that a quarterback sack stops the clock or paranoid enough to claim that he received a crank phone call from Al Davis.  Even the blown lead was different; surrendered not to turnovers, as was the case at Mile High Stadium in ’98, but to a good, old fashioned, butt-kicking at the hands of one of the greatest to ever play his position.  What felt so different was that, this time, the other guys were just better.

Peyton Manning took everything the Jets and Rex Ryan could throw at him over most of the first half.  He was sacked a few times, hit a few more and even stood up at the goal line.  But, once he’d seen the Jets’ entire repertoire and figured it out as only he can, Manning began to methodically pick them apart.  That the Jets shut down All-Pro receivers Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark mattered little to the league MVP as he simply turned to Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in order to send Gang Green home.  Each had a touchdown and numerous catches of pinpoint passes with Jet defenders draped all over them.  You got the feeling that Indy could pull a couple of athletic looking guys out of the stands and Manning would find a way to get them the ball.  Late in the game, CBS posted a graphic that was a testament to Manning’s greatness.  In the four playoff games that saw two Colt receivers gain 100 yards, as Garcon and Collie did, Indianapolis was 4-0.  Amazingly, Manning had accomplished the feat with eight different receivers.  On this day, the better man won.

Difficult as I may find it to be optimistic about the Jets, there is every reason to view this season as a starting point for bigger and better things.  In 1986, as the Giants ran over the rest of the league on their way to their first Super Bowl title, many players cited the previous year’s playoff loss to Chicago as the starting point of their championship run.  In losing to the best team in the league, they had gained an insight as to how far they had to go to be the best.   These Jets may have had the same epiphany. The postseason provided invaluable experience to Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene emerged as a potential star and Darrelle Revis established himself as the best defender in the game.  The core of the team is made up of young studs; all with less than five years experience, the Patriots looked old, slow, injured and disinterested on the road and in the playoffs and, through Rex Ryan, they finally have an identity.  More importantly, they’ve seen how good the best is and what it will take to beat them.  The Jets have a chance to be one of the elite teams in the league for a few years; something that could rarely, if ever, be said about them before.  That may be a tough concept for seasoned fans to swallow considering how often they’ve had their hopes dashed in the past.  It certainly is for me. However, even the most cynical fan has to agree, these weren’t the “Same Old Jets”.

Brett Favre Throws Another One Away

The most unbelievable thing I’ve heard in a long time came from Brett Favre, just minutes after throwing another Super Bowl trip to the other team.  Asked why he didn’t simply run the ball at the end of the NFC Championship tilt in New Orleans and allow the Vikes to set up a field goal, Favre said he didn’t even know how many yards he needed.  Twenty years in the league and he didn’t know?  C’mon, Brett. That’s a play that gets a rookie chewed out in his first training camp.  He didn’t need any yards, actually, as Ryan Longwell would have attempted the game winner even if Favre had taken a knee on the third down play.  Instead, he mindlessly threw a floater across the field and sent the Saints to Miami.  Worse, with their wounds still fresh, the Minnesota faithful now have to deal with the off season retirement dance that the self-centered Favre has made so famous.  Yeah, this one’s going to leave a mark.

Holy Sheets! New York Mets Lose Out On Another Pitcher

While there are many Mets fans ready to picket Omar Minaya’s office at CitiField over the team’s failure to bring in a pitcher this winter, it’s worth noting that the same type of hysteria led to the terrible contract given to Oliver Perez last year. Lack of depth in the starting rotation is certainly the Mets biggest problem but, an acquisition just for acquisition’s sake is not the answer.  Once John Lackey signed with Boston, the prudent plan was patience.  Joel Pineiro is, most likely, a product of Dave Duncan’s Kool-Aid in St. Louis as he struggled mightily before becoming a Card. Jon Garland is the type of high ERA/low strikeout guy already populating the roster and Ben Sheets is too risky at $10 million, even for just a year.  The fact is, Kelvim Escobar, signed early in the off season and returning from elbow surgery, is no more of a risk than any of these guys but with a much bigger upside.  Once Escobar was on board, Sheets was too expensive.  I’m as pessimistic about the Amazins’ staff as anyone, but can’t see the logic in paying up for guys likely to provide little, if any, improvement over those already in the fold.

“Got a Feeling 21 is Gonna Be A Good Year…”

Happy 21st Birthday to one of my all-time favorite athletes, Danny Mayrose.

While many Fantasy Football owners focus on the running backs position as the starting point for their roster, it’s a Wagstaff tenet to, instead, stockpile Wide Receivers at the top of the Fantasy Football draft.  The idea is to take advantage of the fact that many owners severely undervalue the position and by grabbing two WR as soon as possible, you create a huge talent gap between your squad and the first of your opponents to realize that the pool just got very thin.  Now, I wouldn’t recommend that you burn one of the top five picks on a wideout but, if you do find yourself in that position, take an elite back and use the next two picks at WR.  You’ll not only end up with two elite players but you’ll likely start a position run that nets you a RB that slips through the cracks. 

Fantasy Football Rankings for Wide Receiver:

Studs

Andre Johnson is the man here, as the Texans’ superstar carried Waggy’s Holy Shirts and Pants to a semifinal appearance all by himself last season.  220 catches over the last two seasons and an emerging QB in Matt Schaub make him the top guy on our list.   He’ll grab another 100 REC this year and set a career high in TD…  Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald may be the most talented WR in the league but he’s got one drawback for Fantasy Owners that doesn’t exist for the others on this list: A star on the other side.  Fitzgerald’s career year was aided immensely by the prolonged absence of Anquan Boldin, who traditionally scores more TD.  Fitz will still be worth your first pick but his AVG and TD will likely drop…  Imagine what  Calvin Johnson could do if he wasn’t the focus of every team facing the Lions.  In a winless season, he managed 100 YDS in 11 games and scored 12 TD… With Tom Brady returning, Randy Moss should once again be the league’s best home run hitter.  Even though Mat Cassel did an incredible job guiding the Pats to the brink of the playoffs last year, he led a scaled down offense designed to limit mistakes, which hurt Moss owners.  In ’09′ however, chicks dig the long ball.

Stars

The arrivals of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner made a new man of Roddy White as he became Atlanta’s go-to receiver in their unexpected playoff season.  The only thing holding him back was a meager TD total of 7.  As Ryan improves, look for White to top the 88 REC and 1,382 YDS he delivered in ’08… Despite missing 4 games, Anquan Boldin still managed 89 REC and 11 TD.  He’s, once again, looking for a new contract and could find himself taking a back seat to Fitzgerald as the Cards’ shift the focus of their offense to the guy who’s staying.  He’s worth a 2nd or 3rd rounder, just don’t reach… With Marvin Harrison finally out of the picture, Reggie Wayne will get Peyton Manning’s undivided attention.  Considering how well he’s done while sharing it, Wayne is looking at a career year…  Steve Smith was suspended by the Panthers for the first two games of last season then made geniuses of all the Fantasy owners willing to wait for him.  He had over 1,400 YDS on 78 REC.  The only concern here is that his TD total (6) declined for the 4th straight season.

Sleepers

Michael Crabtree was such a great college receiver that Matt Millen would have drafted him were he still the man in Detroit.  As it is, Crabtree brings his incredible skills to San Fran, where he’ll probably team with Josh Morgan to form a terrific young tandem… Good news, bad news for Jericho Cotchery of the Jets. The departure of Laveraneus Coles means that he becomes the big gun but the absence of an established QB could hinder the process.  Bet on Mark Sanchez and take a flier on Cotchery as your third receiver…  Houston’s Kevin Walter is entering his contract year, (we love that), is playing with a QB on the verge of stardom and has defenses focusing on teammate Andre Johnson.  A repeat of last year’s stellar 60 REC, 900 YDS and 8 TD at the cost of a late round pick will make any Fantasy player smile.

Slippers

Has Terrell Owens finally run out of teams willing to put up with his nonsense?  Buffalo is this year’s desperate suitor, acquiring TO in the offseason.  The Bills will likely struggle in the AFC  East, he won’t like sharing the ball with Lee Evans and QB Trent Edwards is nowhere near established enough to command Owens’ respect.  Look for a Thanksgiving meltdown…  Braylon Edwards didn’t make it to the third round of most drafts last year and cost his owners dearly.  A season long case of the drops led to off season trade rumors that never became reality.  Now, he’s back in Cleveland with the same uncertain QB situation and a new coach.  Be careful.

Stiffs

At the end of most drafts, an owner looking to fill his roster inevitably sees a recognizable name and figures there’s no harm in taking the guy.  That’s how Seattle’s Nate Burleson ends up on most fantasy teams.  Don’t let it be yours… Michael Crabtree spells the end of the line for Frisco’s  Isaac Bruce who will be a third down option at best…  Chris Chambers was supposed to find the fountain of youth in San Diego last year.  Instead, he found just 33 REC and 5 TD’s.  Cross Chris off your list.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Fantasy Football Picks for WR:

1. Andre Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Randy Moss
5. Roddy White
6. Anquan Boldin
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Greg Jennings
9. Steve Smith
10. Marques Colston
11. Roy Williams
12. Wes Welker
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Brandon Marshall
15. Vince Jackson
16. Braylon Edwards
17. Michael Crabtree
18. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
19. Antonio Bryant
20. Santonio Holmes
21. Jericho Cotchery
22. Terrell Owens
23. Laveraneus Coles
24. Hines Ward
25. Kevin Walter