By Eddie Mayrose

Ranking  quarterbacks for a Fantasy Football Draft isn’t exactly rocket science.   Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are the top three, followed closely by Tom Brady and Matt Schaub.  Easy stuff, actually, and pretty much universal.  Rating the next five becomes a little dicey, however, as you’ll get very different opinions from Fantasy Football Owners as to which signal callers warrant these spots.  The vast differences of opinion create the potential for selections that will make or break a Fantasy Football Season.  For Professor Wagstaff’s money, the one man in that second five with the best chance of producing on the same level as the top tier is the Ravens’ Joe Flacco.

In 2008, Flacco, then a rookie out of Delaware, led the Ravens to the AFC Championship game; mostly by managing an offensive system that had been scaled down significantly in order to limit his mistakes.  The handcuffs came off last year and Flacco owners benefited from an increase in his production although, Baltimore’s less than stellar wideouts limited the bump in Fantasy points.

This season, however, Flacco could be directing an offensive juggernaut; something Ravens’ fans have never seen before, even during their Super Bowl season.  WR Mark Clayton, last year’s go-to guy, is now the third option after the acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth while RB Ray Rice has become a first rounder in most Fantasy Football drafts due to his status as the NFL’s best receiver out of the backfield.  With the supporting cast now at Flacco’s disposal, he need only to continue the improvement he’s already shown to be that middle round pick you’ll point to when recounting how you managed to win your league in 2010.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 20 Quarterbacks

1) Drew Brees
2) Peyton Manning
3) Matt Schaub
4) Tom Brady
5) Aaron Rodgers
6) Joe Flacco
7) Tony Romo
8 )Donovan McNabb
9) Carson Palmer
10)Matt Ryan
11)Philip Rivers
12)Brett Favre
13)Jay Cutler
14)Eli Manning
15)Kevin Kolb
16)Matt Cassell
17)Jason Campbell
18)Matt Hasselbeck
19)Matt Stafford
20)Kyle Orton

New York Jets Suddenly Not “Same Old”

This time it was different.  The Jets loss to the Colts in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game just didn’t feel as bad as the litany of playoff debacles that have dotted the team’s history.  There was no fumble on the opening kickoff or a roughing the passer call with a win virtually sealed.  There was neither mud nor A.J. Duhe.  The Head Coach was not so frightened as to forget that a quarterback sack stops the clock or paranoid enough to claim that he received a crank phone call from Al Davis.  Even the blown lead was different; surrendered not to turnovers, as was the case at Mile High Stadium in ’98, but to a good, old fashioned, butt-kicking at the hands of one of the greatest to ever play his position.  What felt so different was that, this time, the other guys were just better.

Peyton Manning took everything the Jets and Rex Ryan could throw at him over most of the first half.  He was sacked a few times, hit a few more and even stood up at the goal line.  But, once he’d seen the Jets’ entire repertoire and figured it out as only he can, Manning began to methodically pick them apart.  That the Jets shut down All-Pro receivers Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark mattered little to the league MVP as he simply turned to Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie in order to send Gang Green home.  Each had a touchdown and numerous catches of pinpoint passes with Jet defenders draped all over them.  You got the feeling that Indy could pull a couple of athletic looking guys out of the stands and Manning would find a way to get them the ball.  Late in the game, CBS posted a graphic that was a testament to Manning’s greatness.  In the four playoff games that saw two Colt receivers gain 100 yards, as Garcon and Collie did, Indianapolis was 4-0.  Amazingly, Manning had accomplished the feat with eight different receivers.  On this day, the better man won.

Difficult as I may find it to be optimistic about the Jets, there is every reason to view this season as a starting point for bigger and better things.  In 1986, as the Giants ran over the rest of the league on their way to their first Super Bowl title, many players cited the previous year’s playoff loss to Chicago as the starting point of their championship run.  In losing to the best team in the league, they had gained an insight as to how far they had to go to be the best.   These Jets may have had the same epiphany. The postseason provided invaluable experience to Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene emerged as a potential star and Darrelle Revis established himself as the best defender in the game.  The core of the team is made up of young studs; all with less than five years experience, the Patriots looked old, slow, injured and disinterested on the road and in the playoffs and, through Rex Ryan, they finally have an identity.  More importantly, they’ve seen how good the best is and what it will take to beat them.  The Jets have a chance to be one of the elite teams in the league for a few years; something that could rarely, if ever, be said about them before.  That may be a tough concept for seasoned fans to swallow considering how often they’ve had their hopes dashed in the past.  It certainly is for me. However, even the most cynical fan has to agree, these weren’t the “Same Old Jets”.

Brett Favre Throws Another One Away

The most unbelievable thing I’ve heard in a long time came from Brett Favre, just minutes after throwing another Super Bowl trip to the other team.  Asked why he didn’t simply run the ball at the end of the NFC Championship tilt in New Orleans and allow the Vikes to set up a field goal, Favre said he didn’t even know how many yards he needed.  Twenty years in the league and he didn’t know?  C’mon, Brett. That’s a play that gets a rookie chewed out in his first training camp.  He didn’t need any yards, actually, as Ryan Longwell would have attempted the game winner even if Favre had taken a knee on the third down play.  Instead, he mindlessly threw a floater across the field and sent the Saints to Miami.  Worse, with their wounds still fresh, the Minnesota faithful now have to deal with the off season retirement dance that the self-centered Favre has made so famous.  Yeah, this one’s going to leave a mark.

Holy Sheets! New York Mets Lose Out On Another Pitcher

While there are many Mets fans ready to picket Omar Minaya’s office at CitiField over the team’s failure to bring in a pitcher this winter, it’s worth noting that the same type of hysteria led to the terrible contract given to Oliver Perez last year. Lack of depth in the starting rotation is certainly the Mets biggest problem but, an acquisition just for acquisition’s sake is not the answer.  Once John Lackey signed with Boston, the prudent plan was patience.  Joel Pineiro is, most likely, a product of Dave Duncan’s Kool-Aid in St. Louis as he struggled mightily before becoming a Card. Jon Garland is the type of high ERA/low strikeout guy already populating the roster and Ben Sheets is too risky at $10 million, even for just a year.  The fact is, Kelvim Escobar, signed early in the off season and returning from elbow surgery, is no more of a risk than any of these guys but with a much bigger upside.  Once Escobar was on board, Sheets was too expensive.  I’m as pessimistic about the Amazins’ staff as anyone, but can’t see the logic in paying up for guys likely to provide little, if any, improvement over those already in the fold.

“Got a Feeling 21 is Gonna Be A Good Year…”

Happy 21st Birthday to one of my all-time favorite athletes, Danny Mayrose.

Things went better than expected last week for the star of Ryno Rife Sports Handicappers.  He may not have won any money, but he did manage to break even on this season’s first venture into the world of pro football.  Gil, having assured us he’d confer with his wife, Jill, returns this week to give his two cents on who we might be watching two weeks from now in Super Bowl XLIV.

New Orleans -3 1/2 over Minnesota- When you take away the obligatory three points usually granted a home team, this one looks too close to call.  Both teams dominated their first round opponents after stumbling through the month of December.  I’m going with New Orleans here because I’m buying into Reggie Bush.  His performance last week brought back memories of his Heisman days at USC and served to make Drew Brees and his receivers that much more dangerous.  Strangely, he could be the best runner in the game as Brett Favre’s “me first” attitude has neutralized Adrian Peterson over the last two months.  Who’d a thunk AP would go eight weeks without a 100 yard game?  Look for New Orleans to go up early and then feast on Favre as he starts slinging the ball to anyone on the field.

New York + 7 1/2 over Indianapolis- How can I jump off the Rex Ryan bandwagon now?  This oversized Pied Piper has convinced players and fans alike that his team belongs in the Super Bowl.  As with San Diego, Gang Green matches up with an offense that can’t run the ball effectively and will have to deal with the loss of its best receiver; courtesy of Darrelle Revis.  Unlike San Diego, however, the Jets will have difficulty getting their different defensive packages on the field because of the Colts’ no huddle offense.  Then there’s the small problem of stopping Peyton Manning.  I agree with the many that see this contest as a close one so, I expect Indy to come out on top.  I mean, really, who picks against Manning in a close game?  That said, I think 7 1/2 points is too wide a margin.

Enjoy the games.

Football Gods Still Smiling On New York Jets

Shonn Greene had just crossed the goal line at the end of a bruising fifty-one yard run that had given the Jets a stunning 17-7 lead over San Diego with seven minutes left in their Divisional Round playoff game on Sunday.  As Greene was being mobbed by his teammates and my sons and I were jumping all over the living room, the phone rang.  It was my dad, a well-meaning yet naive Giant fan, calling to congratulate us on a big win.  I picked up the phone, horrified, and said, “Are you crazy?  You can’t call me now.  Do you have any idea how much disaster the Jets can pack into seven minutes?”  And, sure enough, Rex Ryan immediately suffered his only brain cramp of the day; electing to squib the kickoff and hand the ball to the Chargers on the New York side of the field.  There wasn’t a fan over thirty that didn’t believe we were about to be treated to another Jet horror show.

It was then, however, that Gang Green entered the Bizarro World, one where the opponent melts down and the good guys triumph.  Instead of Mark Gastineau roughing the passer, it was Vincent Jackson kicking the challenge flag.  While he may have looked like Doug Brien, it was actually Nate Kaeding, the league’s best kicker, who doomed the Chargers with two missed field goals.  And, finally, Norv Turner’s tragic decision to on-side kick with two minutes remaining was right out of Joe Walton’s coaching manual.  As Jets fans, we’d seen each of these gaffes before but, always, they were committed by our side.  Had the football gods decided we’d finally had enough?  Maybe.  But it’s very possible that the smash mouth brand of football being played by the Jets is exactly the style that brings about such good fortune.  Whatever it is, you have to admit they rate somewhat more of a puncher’s chance against Peyton Manning and Co. this week.

There’s no arguing that, since a Week 15 loss to the Falcons, Lady Luck has been wearing green.  The ton of help necessary to make the playoffs was provided by a multitude of teams.  The first round matchup with the Bengals was the best they could’ve drawn, as was San Diego in the second round.  Their cause has been aided immensely by five missed field goals over the first two games and, much like their matchup with the Chargers, they’ll face a team in Indianapolis with an inferior running game.  Could it be that the stars have finally aligned in their favor?   I don’t know.  But, as long as they continue to dominate their opponent with the league’s best ground attack and the NFL‘s top defensive unit forces the Colts off their game plan, their Super Bowl trip to Miami will have nothing to do with luck.  Though, just in case, I’ll be wearing the same clothes I wore the last two weeks.

Funny thing, though, championships are invariably won by the Fantasy Football Owner that pulls the winning ticket out of the hat: the kicker that becomes automatic from beyond fifty yards for an entire season, the tight end who suddenly finds himself with an aging QB coming out of retirement or the defense with the cornerback that starts returning every INT for six.  So, in order to put you in the best position to grab some of that good luck, take a look at the Wagstaff rankings.

Fantasy Draft Preview: Tight End

Studs

Tony Gonzalez was the Falcons’ biggest off season acquisiton and could be the last piece of the offensive puzzle in Atlanta.  He may not match the 96 REC and 10 TD he posted last year but the presence of Michael Turner and Roddy White should open things up enough for Gonzalez to remain at the top of the list… With the departure of Terrell Owens, Jason Witten becomes Tony Romo’s primary option in Dallas.

Stars

Dallas Clark sits on top of a lot of TE lists but not this one.  He’s too much of a possession receiver to bust into the upper echelon and doesn’t catch enough TD.  However, Peyton Manning makes him a valuable pick… Antonio Gates may be the best athlete at the position but is coming off an unproductive season due to injury.  The return of his own health as well as a productive La Dainian Tomlinson, should boost his stats back to their previous levels.

Sleepers

The Jets’ Dustin Keller had a stretch last year as Brett Favre’s favorite target before disappearing over the last month.  That probably won’t happen this year, as the Jets scale down their offense to accomodate rookie QB Mark Sanchez… Chase Coffman won’t even appear in some Fantasy Football rankings.  However, the Bengals’ rookie left Missouri as the all time receptions leader for TE.  If he wins the starting job in Cincy, expect a strong season.

Slippers

Denver’s Tony Scheffler registered just 3 TD last season with Jay Cutler under center.  Doesn’t seem like stardom is in the offing with Kyle Orton aboard… An uncertain QB situation in Oakland in addition to the Raiders’ home run passing philosophy make it difficult to foresee Zach Miller getting many touches

FANTASY FOOTBALL PICKS

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 12 Fantasy Tight Ends

1. Tony Gonzalez
2. Jason Witten
3. Dustin Keller
4. Dallas Clark
5. Antonio Gates
6. Chris Cooley
7. Kellen Winslow
8. Visante Shiancoe
9. Owen Daniels
10. John Carlson
11. Heath Miller
12. Chase Coffman

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 12 Fantasy Kickers

1. Stephen Gostkowski
2. Rob Bironas
3. Neil Rackers
4. Adam Vinatieri
5. Mason Crosby
6. Jason Elam
7. Ryan Longwell
8. Robbie Gould
9. David Akers
10. Nate Keading
11. Matt Bryant
12. Kris Brown

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 12 Fantasy Defense/Special Teams

1. Vikings
2. Giants
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Jets
6. Chargers
7. Ravens
8. Cowboys
9. Eagles
10. Patriots
11. Dolphins
12. Colts

It was a slippery slope in 2008 for owners who decided to grab a signal caller with the first pick of their Fantasy Football Draft.  Tom Brady didn’t make it out of the first quarter of the first game and Peyton Manning struggled early before settling into a productive yet un-Peyton like campaign.  Tony Romo, rated third on most boards, also failed to deliver equal value while Carson Palmer was terrible before going down for the season.  Drew Brees, an early second rounder, was the leagues most productive QB  while late draftees like Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub were super sleepers.  And who among us could’ve seen Matt Cassel coming down the road.  So, what did all of these surprises teach us?

Well, if nothing else, it’s probably not as good idea to grab a QB in the Top five of the first round.  Consider only the most elite options with your first pick and, if none fall to you, be patient enough to wait into the middle rounds.  Your squad is will be significantly better with a stud RB and a second tier QB than the other way around.  The trick is to separate the studs from the stiffs and then, as always, trust your judgment.  How to accomplish this tricky little feat?  Read on, my Fantasy Football brethren, as Waggie’s here to help.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks for QB

Studs

Will the Saints’ Drew Brees reach the 5,000 YDS mark in passing again?  Probably not.  But, 4,500 is likely, as is his 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  And, if Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can suit up for all 16 games, he’ll have a stronger arsenal… Sometimes, we Fantasy Football players get so caught up with our analysis that we can’t see the forest for the trees.  Such was the case last year, when Peyton Manning missed most of Indy’s  training camp.  We should have seen his sub par September coming but were blinded by the reputation.  Well, Peyton’s been in camp since Day 1 this year and his stats will reflect that.  Bank on a return to 4, 200 YDS and 35 TD… Remember how happy you were last year when New England’s Tom Brady fell to you in the first round?  That euphoria lasted about ten minutes into the season, as Brady went down with a knee.  Expect elite numbers from him this year as he and Randy Moss reunite but don’t buy into the “ahead of schedule” reports coming out of camp.  Keep in mind he had not one procedure but two; the second because his recovery from the first was going too slowly.

Stars

Have to love that San Diego’s Philip Rivers will spend almost half a season facing terrible defenses in the AFC West.  He’ll also have LaDainian Tomlinson at full strength from the get go.  4,000 YDS and 30 TD look like a lock… In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers showed the league why the Pack let Brett Favre walk.  It had been four years since he’d done anything but hold a clipboard and he still posted 4,000 YDS and 28 TD while running for four more TD.  He’ll be even more comfortable this year, which will allow him to boost all of these numbers… Turns out, it didn’t take the Falcons all that long to recover from the Michael Vick debacle.  One draft was all it took, as Matt Ryan settled in as the Falcons’ starter and led them to the playoffs.  He had some help, of course, in Michael Turner and Roddy White and will get more for ’09 in TE Tony Gonzalez.  His 3,440 YDS and 16 TD will probably serve as career lows for this rising star.

Sleepers

Houston’s Matt Schaub burst on to the scene in a big way last year, throwing for 3,000YDS and 15 TD in just 11 games.  A full season with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter could easily add 1,200 YDS to that total and bump the TD up to 25…  In Cincy, Carson Palmer is coming back from an injury riddled season while dealing with the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Laveranues Coles may fill that gap, leaving it to Palmer to reestablish the former Chad Johnson as a threat.  The bet here is that he does…    Miami’s Chad Pennington may not have the best fastball in the game but he’s a proven winner and one of the game’s most accurate passes.   Given that he’ll go in the last few rounds, if at all, a repeat of last year’s 19 TD and 3,600 YDS make him a steal.

Slippers

That I don’t believe Arizona’s Kurt Warner can sustain last year’s success is not the issue.  That he’ll be taken in a position that will likely require improvement over last year’s stats to justify the price is what should concern you…  Now we’ll find out just how much Terrell Owens had to do with  Tony Romo’s success in Dallas.  Even in a disapointing ’08 he had 3,400 YDS and 26 TD.  Romo is still a viable option at QB but don’t reach…  The move to Chicago’s Soldier Field, the lack of a proven receiver on the Bears’ roster will negatively impact  Jay Cutler, a QB who’ll go higher than he should based on reputation.

Stiffs

Even in a season that saw great team success, Tennessee’s Kerry Collins posted very pedestrian Fantasy numbers.  Don’t like his age or the fact that the Titans rely so heavily on the run…  With the Raiders’ organization in such disarray, we mwy never know if  JaMarcus Russell could have been a great QB.  The athleticism he showed at LSU says yes.  The talent surrounding him in Oakland says no…  Buffalo’s  Trent Edwards already had enough pressure on him coming off a sub par season in a tough division.  Then the Bills brought in Terrell Owens.  If Edwards has two bad games in a row, a good bet, Owens will be all over him and the wheels will come off.

Fantasy Football Picks

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 20 Quarterbacks

1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
3. Tom Brady
4. Philip Rivers
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Matt Ryan
7. Matt Schaub
8. Tony Romo
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Kurt Warner
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Eli Manning
14. Ben Roethlisberger
15. Jake Delhomme
16. Chad Pennington
17. Jason Campbell
18. Matt Hasselbeck
19. Joe Flacco
20. Shaun Hill