By Eddie Mayrose

To most Fantasy Football Owners, the key to a successful season is a stable of capable ball-carriers.  Given the amount of touches they receive, it’s a logical concept to spend early round picks on running backs.  In most Fantasy Football Drafts, they dominate the first round; often taking up the first five slots.  However, there is significant, year-to-year turnover on the list of elite backs, something owners don’t always take into account and the reason bargain hunting could lead to a championship.

Last season, many Fantasy Football Players were all smiles after landing Matt Forte and Marion Barber in the first two rounds.  That was likely the only happiness enjoyed by those owners as both of the supposed studs failed to fire.  Yet, discount rushers like Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles delivered top shelf numbers at a much lower price.

Heading into the season, there are two running backs that, because of the circumstances of their teams, are newcomers to the “Elite List”.  There are two others, in similar situations, who are not as highly regarded but could become productive members of your championship squad at a fraction of the cost.   Just remember to shoot the old Professor a thank you note as you celebrate your title.

Versatility

The darling of the 2010 Fantasy Football Season is Ray Rice, based on his running and receiving ability as well as the fact that he’s now the lead guy in Baltimore.  He’s a Top 5 pick in most Fantasy Mock Drafts and is often the top selection in PPR (Points per Reception) leagues.  However, the presence of Willis McGahee as the Ravens’ goal line back is a concern as it will limit Rice’s scoring opportunities.

Everything that has owners drooling over Rice is what was said about the aforementioned Forte last year.  While the Bears’ youngster crushed the dreams of many, a closer look at his numbers reveals minimal drop-offs in receptions and yards-per-carry.  The death knell came from his plummeting TD total, which fell from 12 to 4.  However, with new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz bringing his “Greatest Show On Turf” to Chicago, Forte is positioned for a nice bounce-back campaign; returning solid value for the fourth rounder he’ll cost you.

Quarterback Changes

“I love Rashard Mendenhall.  With Roethlisberger suspended for at least the first four games of the season, Mendenhall will get a lot of carries.”  How many times have you heard that this summer?  While it’s true that the Steelers will be without Big Ben to begin the season, his backup, Byron Leftwich, is no Kellen Clemens.  This is a QB that has led his team to the playoffs and is perfectly capable to step in and run the Pittsburgh offense as it is.  Mendenhall will have a solid year but will not see the bump in statistics expected of him by those owners taking him in the first round.

In Arizona, however, Beanie Wells will absolutely benefit from a change as QB as well as his own move up the Cardinals’ depth chart.  With Kurt Warner retired, Matt Leinart gets a second chance to establish himself as an NFL starter.  You can bet he’ll rely heavily on Wells, who took a large part of last season to get his feet under him.  His strong final month gave Fantasy owners every indication that he’s a star in search of opportunity, something he’s guaranteed in 2010 for the small price of as fourth or fifth round pick.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Running Backs

1       Chris Johnson
2       Adrian Peterson
3       Maurice Jones-Drew
4       Michael Turner
5       Stephen Jackson
6       Ray Rice
7       LeSean McCoy
8       Frank Gore
9       Beanie Wells
10    DeAngelo Williams
11    Ryan Grant
12    Shonn Greene
13    Knowshon Moreno
14    Ryan Matthews
15    Jamaal Charles
16    Rashard Mendenhall
17    Cedric Benson
18    Jonathan Stewart
19    Matt Forte
20    Pierre Thomas
21    Steve Slaton
22    Cadillac Williams
23    C.J. Spiller
24    Ahmad Bradshaw
25    Ronnie Brown

By Eddie Mayrose

If you’re a Wagstaff follower, you’ve heard this refrain before.  “Grab the best Fantasy Receivers as early as possible.”  It’s a theory put into practice every year by the Professor as he constructs his Fantasy Football Roster; one that has annually provided a tremendous edge over Fantasy Owners locked into the standard system of front-loading running backs.  Here’s why.

It’s a widely accepted (yet flawed) idea that the elite ball carriers produce more than the best wideouts.  While I’ll agree that running backs are guaranteed significantly more touches, it doesn’t guarantee better production.  Texans’ star Andre Johnson was a Wagstaff first rounder in every draft.  Compare his 1,500 YDS and 9 TD to Stephen Jackson’s 1,300 YDS and 4 TD.  Now, it’d be crazy to pass on Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew with any of the first three picks but, after that, guys like Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss are way more likely to deliver their career averages than what’s left in the backfield.  Not to mention that running backs are infinitely more likely to get hurt.

So, take advantage of those in your Fantasy Football League that are mired in the conventional wisdom.  Stockpile two of the elite receivers before anyone realizes how that the position has thinned out and then scoop up mid-round running backs who’ll still help your team.

Fantasy Football Star

We’ve already mentioned Johnson, Fitzgerald and Moss.  The next guy on the Wagstaff list is Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson.  He actually may be the most talented guy on our list and with QB Matt Stafford gaining experience behind an improved offensive line, Calvin is ready to explode.

Fantasy Football Stiff

Don’t get trapped by the notion that Santonio Holmes is a bargain because he’ll go late in your draft.  He’ll miss four weeks, more than a third of your Fantasy Football season, and come back to an unfamiliar offensive scheme led by the erratic Mark Sanchez.  Holmes is likely to struggle into November.

Fantasy Football Sleeper

One of the best NCAA receivers in the last decade, Michael Crabtree never really got cooking last year after a long contract holdout.  In 2010, with a full training camp under his belt, Crabtree will make Frank Gore the Niners’ second-most important player.

Fantasy Football Slipper

While San Diego’s Vincent Jackson is one of the league’s rising stars, his contract holdout as well as the Chargers’ depleted offensive line will likely take his production down a few notches. Don’t get caught paying 2010 prices for his 2009 stats.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Wide Receivers

Wagstaff Eliminated From McGee Survivor League

It’s been two weeks since our beloved Professor was sent packing and he still hasn’t gotten over it.  The dreams he had of collecting the grand prize of Christmas booty have been dashed, by in-laws no less. The pain became worse when the elimination process spilled over to his birthday.  Then, the sweetest competitor left in the competition actually sought out some old classmates of the Prof and dished some more dirt.  It’s been quite a humbling experience.

The Staten Island Division has now been decimated while just one remains from the Holmdel and Long Island loops.  The Midwest Division is alive and well heading into the semi final round, each hoping to collect a Christmas gift from the rest of the league.  Good luck to all but, keep it down on the ferry, will ya, Jen?

Fantasy Football News and Notes

Thought it was very cool last week when Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew, after taking a knee on the one yard line in order to run down the clock in the fourth quarter, apologized to his Fantasy Football owners…RB Steve Slaton will be back in the Texans’ starting lineup on Monday night vs. Tennessee…Eagles RB Brian Westbrook will miss up to three weeks with his second concussion in a month.  If he has people that love him, however, he’ll sit the rest of the year…Denver QB Kyle Orton missed a lot of practice time with a sprained ankle and is doubtful for Sunday…Michael Turner, listed by the Falcons as doubtful for Sunday, probably won’t go…Washington RB Clinton Portis is still out with a concussion…Bengal RB Cedric Benson missed the entire week of practice with a hip injury and won’t play Sunday… A bum hip has Colts’ DE Dwight Freeney doubtful at Baltimore…Saints’ RB Reggie Bush is out with a knee injury…Troy Polamalu will not be in the Steelers’ secondary in Kansas City.

Fantasy Football Stars-

How often do the Texans get to show their stuff to a national audience?  That’ll happen Monday night and WR  Andre Johnson should take full advantage.  He and QB Matt Schaub are probably the deadliest passing duo in the league this side of Brady-Moss and not many know it.  Look for Johnson to make life miserable for the Tennessee defense.

Fantasy Football Stiffs -

Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez was the beneficiary of the team’s hot start and Tom Brady’s rust when Gang Green knocked off the Patriots in Week 2 at the Meadowlands.  That won’t happen today as a ticked off Patriots’ defense will be bringing schemes the rookie has never seen.  If you lose points for QB turnovers, you’ll want to sit Sanchez.

Fantasy Football Sleepers-

RB Larry Johnson was signed by the Bengals this week after a month of turmoil inn Kansas City caused by his insensitive remarks about gays cost him his job.  Desperate for a new start and working with fresh legs, he should pur up solid numbers as Cedric Benson’s replacement in Cincinnati.

Fantasy Football Slippers-

Broncos’ WR Brandon Marshall could see his numbers drop vs. San Diego if QB Kyle Orton can’t go.  Back-up QB Chris Simms does not have Orton’s arm and will likely work the underneath routes; costing Marshall and his owners valuable YDS and scoring opportunities.

Well, here we are.  The first NFL training camp opens on Saturday in Buffalo, perhaps because the Bills can’t wait to immerse themselves in the glow and warmth of newly acquired Terrell Owens.  Whatever the reason, the first whistle will also serve to alert Fantasy Owners that their drafts are just a few weeks away.  In most of those drafts, running backs will dominate most of the first two rounds so; the position seems as good a spot as any to start our 2009 previews.

Fantasy Football Running Backs

Studs

Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson carried the ball 363 times last year.  363!  The NFL’s leading rusher probably won’t carry the same load this season but will still be the first pick in your draft… Michael Turner emerged from LT’s shadow in San Diego and became a superstar in Atlanta.  He ran for 220 YDS on Opening Day and never looked back. Ironically, he’ll likely go before Tomlinson in most Fantasy drafts…  It took a year but DeAngelo Williams finally showed the panthers the talent they expected when they drafted him.  His 1,500 YDS were a team record and 20 TD boosted him to an elite Fantasy ranking…  Jaguars’ star Maurice Jones Drew ran for less YDS than anyone in this group but made up for it with better than 500 YDS receiving.  Look for his rushing total to increase in ’09 as he’ll no longer be splitting time with the departed Fred Taylor… Not a bad rookie year for Matt Forte, who quickly became the focal point of the Bears’ offense.  The addition of Jay Cutler won’t hurt him at all since he’s probably Chicago’s best receiver, as well.

Stars

Talk to Fantasy owners that drafted Marion Barber in the first or second round in ‘08 and they’ll tell you they were somewhat disappointed.  Slowed in the final four games by a toe injury, Barber’s production fell off.  Healthy now, don’t look past the fact that he still managed 1,300 total YDS and 10 TD… Frank Gore, slowed in the latter part of the season by a concussion, had 1,500 total YDS and 8 TD.  A new O Coordinator with a reputation for running the ball will give the 49’ers star a huge boost…  Houston’s Steve Slaton went undrafted in many leagues last year (including mine) and was happily grabbed as a FA early on.  He’ll be the starter out of the gate this year so, expect bigger numbers… Brian Westbrook suffered through a litany of injuries last season yet, the Eagles star still had 14 TD and 1,300 YDS.  He’s had off season surgery on his ankle and knee so, be careful but the risk reward for drafting him is huge.

Sleepers

How does one of the greatest RB in the history of the game end up on a Fantasy sleeper list?  When he’s coming off an injury riddled season and he’s over 30, that’s when.  San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson is Wagstaff’s pick for steal of the draft in ’09 as he’ll probably go late second or early third round in a year where he’ll show everyone how great he is when healthy… Injuries and the emergence of LeRon McLain made for a tough rookie year for the Ravens’ Ray Rice.  However, McLain will be moved to fullback while Rice will split time with Willis McGahee…  We’re going out on a limb here with Arizona’s Beanie Wells, as he’s slated to split time with Tim Hightower.  The thought, however, is that Wells has more breakaway potential; enough to give him the bulk of the carries and some late round value… Given the history, how can you not want a Denver RB?  Knowshon Moreno will quickly become the Broncos’ go to guy, especially as they gently work Kyle Orton into the offense.

Slippers

A decent sleeper pick in ’08, LenDale White became nothing more than a short yardage specialist for the Titans as the season wore on with Chris Johnson taking the reins.  Don’t get sucked in by his TD total… Age and the Browns’ ineptitude have conspired to rob Jamal Lewis of his Fantasy value.  His totals last year were his lowest in four years and the Browns don’t look like they’ve worked out too many of their problems…, Willis McGahee seems to have hit the infamous RB wall; and the Ravens apparently think so, too.  They’re looking to work Ray Rice into the rotation… The Colts’ Joseph Addai was a first rounder in most Fantasy leagues last year but struggled mightily.  So much so, that Indy used its first pick on Donald Brown, who will definitely take touches from Addai.

Stiffs

  Larry Johnson has asked the Chiefs for a trade and will lose touches to Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith… In Tampa Bay, Earnest Graham is returning from an ankle injury that cost him the last five weeks of an already disappointing season while battling the newly signed Derrick Ward for playing time… In Baltimore, LeRon McLain became a viable option when Willis McGahee went down.  However, he’s being moved to FB, making him the Ravens’ third option at best.

Fantasy Football Picks: Wagstaff’s Top 20 Running Backs

1. Adrian Peterson                            
2. DeAngelo Williams                    
3.  Matt Forte                                         
4. Michael Turner                             
5. Maurice Jones Drew                  
6. Steve Slaton                                    
7. LaDainian Tomlinson               
8. Brian Westbrook                         
9. Marion Barber                              
10. Frank Gore                                     
11. Steven Jackson
12. Clinton Portis   
13. Brandon Jacobs   
14. Knowshon Moreno
15. Thomas Jones
16. Marshawn Lynch
17. Ryan Grant
18. Joseph Addai
19. Kevin Smith
20. Willie Parker