By Eddie Mayrose

To most Fantasy Football Owners, the key to a successful season is a stable of capable ball-carriers.  Given the amount of touches they receive, it’s a logical concept to spend early round picks on running backs.  In most Fantasy Football Drafts, they dominate the first round; often taking up the first five slots.  However, there is significant, year-to-year turnover on the list of elite backs, something owners don’t always take into account and the reason bargain hunting could lead to a championship.

Last season, many Fantasy Football Players were all smiles after landing Matt Forte and Marion Barber in the first two rounds.  That was likely the only happiness enjoyed by those owners as both of the supposed studs failed to fire.  Yet, discount rushers like Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles delivered top shelf numbers at a much lower price.

Heading into the season, there are two running backs that, because of the circumstances of their teams, are newcomers to the “Elite List”.  There are two others, in similar situations, who are not as highly regarded but could become productive members of your championship squad at a fraction of the cost.   Just remember to shoot the old Professor a thank you note as you celebrate your title.

Versatility

The darling of the 2010 Fantasy Football Season is Ray Rice, based on his running and receiving ability as well as the fact that he’s now the lead guy in Baltimore.  He’s a Top 5 pick in most Fantasy Mock Drafts and is often the top selection in PPR (Points per Reception) leagues.  However, the presence of Willis McGahee as the Ravens’ goal line back is a concern as it will limit Rice’s scoring opportunities.

Everything that has owners drooling over Rice is what was said about the aforementioned Forte last year.  While the Bears’ youngster crushed the dreams of many, a closer look at his numbers reveals minimal drop-offs in receptions and yards-per-carry.  The death knell came from his plummeting TD total, which fell from 12 to 4.  However, with new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz bringing his “Greatest Show On Turf” to Chicago, Forte is positioned for a nice bounce-back campaign; returning solid value for the fourth rounder he’ll cost you.

Quarterback Changes

“I love Rashard Mendenhall.  With Roethlisberger suspended for at least the first four games of the season, Mendenhall will get a lot of carries.”  How many times have you heard that this summer?  While it’s true that the Steelers will be without Big Ben to begin the season, his backup, Byron Leftwich, is no Kellen Clemens.  This is a QB that has led his team to the playoffs and is perfectly capable to step in and run the Pittsburgh offense as it is.  Mendenhall will have a solid year but will not see the bump in statistics expected of him by those owners taking him in the first round.

In Arizona, however, Beanie Wells will absolutely benefit from a change as QB as well as his own move up the Cardinals’ depth chart.  With Kurt Warner retired, Matt Leinart gets a second chance to establish himself as an NFL starter.  You can bet he’ll rely heavily on Wells, who took a large part of last season to get his feet under him.  His strong final month gave Fantasy owners every indication that he’s a star in search of opportunity, something he’s guaranteed in 2010 for the small price of as fourth or fifth round pick.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Running Backs

1       Chris Johnson
2       Adrian Peterson
3       Maurice Jones-Drew
4       Michael Turner
5       Stephen Jackson
6       Ray Rice
7       LeSean McCoy
8       Frank Gore
9       Beanie Wells
10    DeAngelo Williams
11    Ryan Grant
12    Shonn Greene
13    Knowshon Moreno
14    Ryan Matthews
15    Jamaal Charles
16    Rashard Mendenhall
17    Cedric Benson
18    Jonathan Stewart
19    Matt Forte
20    Pierre Thomas
21    Steve Slaton
22    Cadillac Williams
23    C.J. Spiller
24    Ahmad Bradshaw
25    Ronnie Brown

By Eddie Mayrose

If you’re a Wagstaff follower, you’ve heard this refrain before.  “Grab the best Fantasy Receivers as early as possible.”  It’s a theory put into practice every year by the Professor as he constructs his Fantasy Football Roster; one that has annually provided a tremendous edge over Fantasy Owners locked into the standard system of front-loading running backs.  Here’s why.

It’s a widely accepted (yet flawed) idea that the elite ball carriers produce more than the best wideouts.  While I’ll agree that running backs are guaranteed significantly more touches, it doesn’t guarantee better production.  Texans’ star Andre Johnson was a Wagstaff first rounder in every draft.  Compare his 1,500 YDS and 9 TD to Stephen Jackson’s 1,300 YDS and 4 TD.  Now, it’d be crazy to pass on Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Maurice Jones-Drew with any of the first three picks but, after that, guys like Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss are way more likely to deliver their career averages than what’s left in the backfield.  Not to mention that running backs are infinitely more likely to get hurt.

So, take advantage of those in your Fantasy Football League that are mired in the conventional wisdom.  Stockpile two of the elite receivers before anyone realizes how that the position has thinned out and then scoop up mid-round running backs who’ll still help your team.

Fantasy Football Star

We’ve already mentioned Johnson, Fitzgerald and Moss.  The next guy on the Wagstaff list is Lions’ WR Calvin Johnson.  He actually may be the most talented guy on our list and with QB Matt Stafford gaining experience behind an improved offensive line, Calvin is ready to explode.

Fantasy Football Stiff

Don’t get trapped by the notion that Santonio Holmes is a bargain because he’ll go late in your draft.  He’ll miss four weeks, more than a third of your Fantasy Football season, and come back to an unfamiliar offensive scheme led by the erratic Mark Sanchez.  Holmes is likely to struggle into November.

Fantasy Football Sleeper

One of the best NCAA receivers in the last decade, Michael Crabtree never really got cooking last year after a long contract holdout.  In 2010, with a full training camp under his belt, Crabtree will make Frank Gore the Niners’ second-most important player.

Fantasy Football Slipper

While San Diego’s Vincent Jackson is one of the league’s rising stars, his contract holdout as well as the Chargers’ depleted offensive line will likely take his production down a few notches. Don’t get caught paying 2010 prices for his 2009 stats.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Wide Receivers

By Eddie Mayrose

Ranking  quarterbacks for a Fantasy Football Draft isn’t exactly rocket science.   Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are the top three, followed closely by Tom Brady and Matt Schaub.  Easy stuff, actually, and pretty much universal.  Rating the next five becomes a little dicey, however, as you’ll get very different opinions from Fantasy Football Owners as to which signal callers warrant these spots.  The vast differences of opinion create the potential for selections that will make or break a Fantasy Football Season.  For Professor Wagstaff’s money, the one man in that second five with the best chance of producing on the same level as the top tier is the Ravens’ Joe Flacco.

In 2008, Flacco, then a rookie out of Delaware, led the Ravens to the AFC Championship game; mostly by managing an offensive system that had been scaled down significantly in order to limit his mistakes.  The handcuffs came off last year and Flacco owners benefited from an increase in his production although, Baltimore’s less than stellar wideouts limited the bump in Fantasy points.

This season, however, Flacco could be directing an offensive juggernaut; something Ravens’ fans have never seen before, even during their Super Bowl season.  WR Mark Clayton, last year’s go-to guy, is now the third option after the acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth while RB Ray Rice has become a first rounder in most Fantasy Football drafts due to his status as the NFL’s best receiver out of the backfield.  With the supporting cast now at Flacco’s disposal, he need only to continue the improvement he’s already shown to be that middle round pick you’ll point to when recounting how you managed to win your league in 2010.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 20 Quarterbacks

1) Drew Brees
2) Peyton Manning
3) Matt Schaub
4) Tom Brady
5) Aaron Rodgers
6) Joe Flacco
7) Tony Romo
8 )Donovan McNabb
9) Carson Palmer
10)Matt Ryan
11)Philip Rivers
12)Brett Favre
13)Jay Cutler
14)Eli Manning
15)Kevin Kolb
16)Matt Cassell
17)Jason Campbell
18)Matt Hasselbeck
19)Matt Stafford
20)Kyle Orton

So, here we are. Week 1 for Fantasy Football Owners and the inaugural season for the members of The McGee Survivor League, a pressure cooker of a Fantasy Football League made up of Nieces, Nephews, In-Laws and Uncles; all vying for the bragging rights that will turn the family Christmas party into their very own championship locker room. In a brutal format that does not allow for trades or free agent pickups, the lowest scoring team of the fourteen that make up the league will be eliminated each week until only one is left standing. Or, simply put, don’t screw up your Fantasy Football Draft because you could be one and done. Advice that the good Professor should have followed in Round 6 when I got caught watching the Miami-Florida State game. I didn’t realize I was on the clock until after the computer auto picked Cincy TE Chase Coffman. Now, Wagstaff readers know I like the Bengals’ rookie but not that much. He was in my queue for a last round pick until he became my sixth. I spent the rest of the draft one player short as I scrambled to cover the mistake. It probably won’t matter anyway because, with two girls in the league, the guys don’t have a chance. The Fantasy Gods seem to love women and these two know what they’re doing; a double whammy. So, I’ll keep my fingers crossed that Beanie Wells can get something done and hope that Reggie Bush, the player Coffman should have been, doesn’t light it up in New Orleans. Good luck to all.

Fantasy Football Studs

Have to love San Diego’s Philip Rivers against any divisional foe but especially the Raiders. With Tomlinson and Gates healthy, Rivers has too many weapons for the defenseless Raiders to handle… Think Carson Palmer is anxious to get back on the field for the Bengals? He couldn’t ask for a weaker secondary to face than Denver’s. Chris Henry had a great preseason, the former Chad Johnson seems motivated and Wagstaff has to hope that Chase Coffman has a big year… Pity the poor Lions, trying to rebuild and having to face Drew Brees on opening day. Look for 300+ YDS and 3 TD from the Saints’ QB.

Fantasy Football Stars

Love the Texans’ and Saints’ DST as both will face rookie QBs. Four sacks each and a few INTs should be easy pickins’… With Terrell Owens in Buffalo, look for Dallas QB Tony Romo to rely heavily on TE Jason Witten in the season opener against a rebuilding Bucs’ squad with a lot of defensive problems…

Fantasy Football Sleepers

With a rookie QB facing a strong pass rush, the Jets’ will probably gear their passing game to a short, quick hitting style. Great news for owners of TE Dustin Keller… The Rams are undergoing a complete rebuild, especially on their D Line, which could make for a big afternoon for Seattle’s Julius Jones on Sunday… The Bills fired their O Coordinator during the preseason, cut a starting OT and will open vs. New England with three rookies on the O Line. Something tells me the Patriots D is licking its chops.

Fantasy Football Slippers

Injuries to QBs Kyle Orton and Chris Simms and the uncertain status of WR Brandon Marshall will result in a tough debut for Denver RB Knowshon Moreno, who may not even get the lion’s share of the carries… Not that Eli Manning isn’t a Wagstaff favorite, he is, but the Giants’ game plan this week will probably not be well suited for a big game from the QB… Cards’ WR Anquan Boldin has the Professor a little nervous. He’s got a bad hammy, is ticked about his contract and didn’t have a good preseason.

Fantasy Football Stiffs

You can blame Eric Mangini if you’re the owner of whoever starts at QB for the Browns this week. With Cleveland facing one of the top Defenses in the league, it was no time to let Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson twist in the wind. One of them will pay the price on Sunday… Still think that Matt Cassel’s success was a product of the talent surrounding him last year. He heads into the season with a trained knee that limits his mobility against the Baltimore Ravens; not a recipe for success… The Colts’ D will struggle this week vs. the Jags, especially with S Ed Sanders hobbled.