By Eddie Mayrose

To most Fantasy Football Owners, the key to a successful season is a stable of capable ball-carriers.  Given the amount of touches they receive, it’s a logical concept to spend early round picks on running backs.  In most Fantasy Football Drafts, they dominate the first round; often taking up the first five slots.  However, there is significant, year-to-year turnover on the list of elite backs, something owners don’t always take into account and the reason bargain hunting could lead to a championship.

Last season, many Fantasy Football Players were all smiles after landing Matt Forte and Marion Barber in the first two rounds.  That was likely the only happiness enjoyed by those owners as both of the supposed studs failed to fire.  Yet, discount rushers like Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles delivered top shelf numbers at a much lower price.

Heading into the season, there are two running backs that, because of the circumstances of their teams, are newcomers to the “Elite List”.  There are two others, in similar situations, who are not as highly regarded but could become productive members of your championship squad at a fraction of the cost.   Just remember to shoot the old Professor a thank you note as you celebrate your title.

Versatility

The darling of the 2010 Fantasy Football Season is Ray Rice, based on his running and receiving ability as well as the fact that he’s now the lead guy in Baltimore.  He’s a Top 5 pick in most Fantasy Mock Drafts and is often the top selection in PPR (Points per Reception) leagues.  However, the presence of Willis McGahee as the Ravens’ goal line back is a concern as it will limit Rice’s scoring opportunities.

Everything that has owners drooling over Rice is what was said about the aforementioned Forte last year.  While the Bears’ youngster crushed the dreams of many, a closer look at his numbers reveals minimal drop-offs in receptions and yards-per-carry.  The death knell came from his plummeting TD total, which fell from 12 to 4.  However, with new Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz bringing his “Greatest Show On Turf” to Chicago, Forte is positioned for a nice bounce-back campaign; returning solid value for the fourth rounder he’ll cost you.

Quarterback Changes

“I love Rashard Mendenhall.  With Roethlisberger suspended for at least the first four games of the season, Mendenhall will get a lot of carries.”  How many times have you heard that this summer?  While it’s true that the Steelers will be without Big Ben to begin the season, his backup, Byron Leftwich, is no Kellen Clemens.  This is a QB that has led his team to the playoffs and is perfectly capable to step in and run the Pittsburgh offense as it is.  Mendenhall will have a solid year but will not see the bump in statistics expected of him by those owners taking him in the first round.

In Arizona, however, Beanie Wells will absolutely benefit from a change as QB as well as his own move up the Cardinals’ depth chart.  With Kurt Warner retired, Matt Leinart gets a second chance to establish himself as an NFL starter.  You can bet he’ll rely heavily on Wells, who took a large part of last season to get his feet under him.  His strong final month gave Fantasy owners every indication that he’s a star in search of opportunity, something he’s guaranteed in 2010 for the small price of as fourth or fifth round pick.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Running Backs

1       Chris Johnson
2       Adrian Peterson
3       Maurice Jones-Drew
4       Michael Turner
5       Stephen Jackson
6       Ray Rice
7       LeSean McCoy
8       Frank Gore
9       Beanie Wells
10    DeAngelo Williams
11    Ryan Grant
12    Shonn Greene
13    Knowshon Moreno
14    Ryan Matthews
15    Jamaal Charles
16    Rashard Mendenhall
17    Cedric Benson
18    Jonathan Stewart
19    Matt Forte
20    Pierre Thomas
21    Steve Slaton
22    Cadillac Williams
23    C.J. Spiller
24    Ahmad Bradshaw
25    Ronnie Brown

By Eddie Mayrose

Ranking  quarterbacks for a Fantasy Football Draft isn’t exactly rocket science.   Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are the top three, followed closely by Tom Brady and Matt Schaub.  Easy stuff, actually, and pretty much universal.  Rating the next five becomes a little dicey, however, as you’ll get very different opinions from Fantasy Football Owners as to which signal callers warrant these spots.  The vast differences of opinion create the potential for selections that will make or break a Fantasy Football Season.  For Professor Wagstaff’s money, the one man in that second five with the best chance of producing on the same level as the top tier is the Ravens’ Joe Flacco.

In 2008, Flacco, then a rookie out of Delaware, led the Ravens to the AFC Championship game; mostly by managing an offensive system that had been scaled down significantly in order to limit his mistakes.  The handcuffs came off last year and Flacco owners benefited from an increase in his production although, Baltimore’s less than stellar wideouts limited the bump in Fantasy points.

This season, however, Flacco could be directing an offensive juggernaut; something Ravens’ fans have never seen before, even during their Super Bowl season.  WR Mark Clayton, last year’s go-to guy, is now the third option after the acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth while RB Ray Rice has become a first rounder in most Fantasy Football drafts due to his status as the NFL’s best receiver out of the backfield.  With the supporting cast now at Flacco’s disposal, he need only to continue the improvement he’s already shown to be that middle round pick you’ll point to when recounting how you managed to win your league in 2010.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 20 Quarterbacks

1) Drew Brees
2) Peyton Manning
3) Matt Schaub
4) Tom Brady
5) Aaron Rodgers
6) Joe Flacco
7) Tony Romo
8 )Donovan McNabb
9) Carson Palmer
10)Matt Ryan
11)Philip Rivers
12)Brett Favre
13)Jay Cutler
14)Eli Manning
15)Kevin Kolb
16)Matt Cassell
17)Jason Campbell
18)Matt Hasselbeck
19)Matt Stafford
20)Kyle Orton

Wagstaff Eliminated From McGee Survivor League

It’s been two weeks since our beloved Professor was sent packing and he still hasn’t gotten over it.  The dreams he had of collecting the grand prize of Christmas booty have been dashed, by in-laws no less. The pain became worse when the elimination process spilled over to his birthday.  Then, the sweetest competitor left in the competition actually sought out some old classmates of the Prof and dished some more dirt.  It’s been quite a humbling experience.

The Staten Island Division has now been decimated while just one remains from the Holmdel and Long Island loops.  The Midwest Division is alive and well heading into the semi final round, each hoping to collect a Christmas gift from the rest of the league.  Good luck to all but, keep it down on the ferry, will ya, Jen?

Fantasy Football News and Notes

Thought it was very cool last week when Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew, after taking a knee on the one yard line in order to run down the clock in the fourth quarter, apologized to his Fantasy Football owners…RB Steve Slaton will be back in the Texans’ starting lineup on Monday night vs. Tennessee…Eagles RB Brian Westbrook will miss up to three weeks with his second concussion in a month.  If he has people that love him, however, he’ll sit the rest of the year…Denver QB Kyle Orton missed a lot of practice time with a sprained ankle and is doubtful for Sunday…Michael Turner, listed by the Falcons as doubtful for Sunday, probably won’t go…Washington RB Clinton Portis is still out with a concussion…Bengal RB Cedric Benson missed the entire week of practice with a hip injury and won’t play Sunday… A bum hip has Colts’ DE Dwight Freeney doubtful at Baltimore…Saints’ RB Reggie Bush is out with a knee injury…Troy Polamalu will not be in the Steelers’ secondary in Kansas City.

Fantasy Football Stars-

How often do the Texans get to show their stuff to a national audience?  That’ll happen Monday night and WR  Andre Johnson should take full advantage.  He and QB Matt Schaub are probably the deadliest passing duo in the league this side of Brady-Moss and not many know it.  Look for Johnson to make life miserable for the Tennessee defense.

Fantasy Football Stiffs -

Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez was the beneficiary of the team’s hot start and Tom Brady’s rust when Gang Green knocked off the Patriots in Week 2 at the Meadowlands.  That won’t happen today as a ticked off Patriots’ defense will be bringing schemes the rookie has never seen.  If you lose points for QB turnovers, you’ll want to sit Sanchez.

Fantasy Football Sleepers-

RB Larry Johnson was signed by the Bengals this week after a month of turmoil inn Kansas City caused by his insensitive remarks about gays cost him his job.  Desperate for a new start and working with fresh legs, he should pur up solid numbers as Cedric Benson’s replacement in Cincinnati.

Fantasy Football Slippers-

Broncos’ WR Brandon Marshall could see his numbers drop vs. San Diego if QB Kyle Orton can’t go.  Back-up QB Chris Simms does not have Orton’s arm and will likely work the underneath routes; costing Marshall and his owners valuable YDS and scoring opportunities.

So, here we are. Week 1 for Fantasy Football Owners and the inaugural season for the members of The McGee Survivor League, a pressure cooker of a Fantasy Football League made up of Nieces, Nephews, In-Laws and Uncles; all vying for the bragging rights that will turn the family Christmas party into their very own championship locker room. In a brutal format that does not allow for trades or free agent pickups, the lowest scoring team of the fourteen that make up the league will be eliminated each week until only one is left standing. Or, simply put, don’t screw up your Fantasy Football Draft because you could be one and done. Advice that the good Professor should have followed in Round 6 when I got caught watching the Miami-Florida State game. I didn’t realize I was on the clock until after the computer auto picked Cincy TE Chase Coffman. Now, Wagstaff readers know I like the Bengals’ rookie but not that much. He was in my queue for a last round pick until he became my sixth. I spent the rest of the draft one player short as I scrambled to cover the mistake. It probably won’t matter anyway because, with two girls in the league, the guys don’t have a chance. The Fantasy Gods seem to love women and these two know what they’re doing; a double whammy. So, I’ll keep my fingers crossed that Beanie Wells can get something done and hope that Reggie Bush, the player Coffman should have been, doesn’t light it up in New Orleans. Good luck to all.

Fantasy Football Studs

Have to love San Diego’s Philip Rivers against any divisional foe but especially the Raiders. With Tomlinson and Gates healthy, Rivers has too many weapons for the defenseless Raiders to handle… Think Carson Palmer is anxious to get back on the field for the Bengals? He couldn’t ask for a weaker secondary to face than Denver’s. Chris Henry had a great preseason, the former Chad Johnson seems motivated and Wagstaff has to hope that Chase Coffman has a big year… Pity the poor Lions, trying to rebuild and having to face Drew Brees on opening day. Look for 300+ YDS and 3 TD from the Saints’ QB.

Fantasy Football Stars

Love the Texans’ and Saints’ DST as both will face rookie QBs. Four sacks each and a few INTs should be easy pickins’… With Terrell Owens in Buffalo, look for Dallas QB Tony Romo to rely heavily on TE Jason Witten in the season opener against a rebuilding Bucs’ squad with a lot of defensive problems…

Fantasy Football Sleepers

With a rookie QB facing a strong pass rush, the Jets’ will probably gear their passing game to a short, quick hitting style. Great news for owners of TE Dustin Keller… The Rams are undergoing a complete rebuild, especially on their D Line, which could make for a big afternoon for Seattle’s Julius Jones on Sunday… The Bills fired their O Coordinator during the preseason, cut a starting OT and will open vs. New England with three rookies on the O Line. Something tells me the Patriots D is licking its chops.

Fantasy Football Slippers

Injuries to QBs Kyle Orton and Chris Simms and the uncertain status of WR Brandon Marshall will result in a tough debut for Denver RB Knowshon Moreno, who may not even get the lion’s share of the carries… Not that Eli Manning isn’t a Wagstaff favorite, he is, but the Giants’ game plan this week will probably not be well suited for a big game from the QB… Cards’ WR Anquan Boldin has the Professor a little nervous. He’s got a bad hammy, is ticked about his contract and didn’t have a good preseason.

Fantasy Football Stiffs

You can blame Eric Mangini if you’re the owner of whoever starts at QB for the Browns this week. With Cleveland facing one of the top Defenses in the league, it was no time to let Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson twist in the wind. One of them will pay the price on Sunday… Still think that Matt Cassel’s success was a product of the talent surrounding him last year. He heads into the season with a trained knee that limits his mobility against the Baltimore Ravens; not a recipe for success… The Colts’ D will struggle this week vs. the Jags, especially with S Ed Sanders hobbled.

Funny thing, though, championships are invariably won by the Fantasy Football Owner that pulls the winning ticket out of the hat: the kicker that becomes automatic from beyond fifty yards for an entire season, the tight end who suddenly finds himself with an aging QB coming out of retirement or the defense with the cornerback that starts returning every INT for six.  So, in order to put you in the best position to grab some of that good luck, take a look at the Wagstaff rankings.

Fantasy Draft Preview: Tight End

Studs

Tony Gonzalez was the Falcons’ biggest off season acquisiton and could be the last piece of the offensive puzzle in Atlanta.  He may not match the 96 REC and 10 TD he posted last year but the presence of Michael Turner and Roddy White should open things up enough for Gonzalez to remain at the top of the list… With the departure of Terrell Owens, Jason Witten becomes Tony Romo’s primary option in Dallas.

Stars

Dallas Clark sits on top of a lot of TE lists but not this one.  He’s too much of a possession receiver to bust into the upper echelon and doesn’t catch enough TD.  However, Peyton Manning makes him a valuable pick… Antonio Gates may be the best athlete at the position but is coming off an unproductive season due to injury.  The return of his own health as well as a productive La Dainian Tomlinson, should boost his stats back to their previous levels.

Sleepers

The Jets’ Dustin Keller had a stretch last year as Brett Favre’s favorite target before disappearing over the last month.  That probably won’t happen this year, as the Jets scale down their offense to accomodate rookie QB Mark Sanchez… Chase Coffman won’t even appear in some Fantasy Football rankings.  However, the Bengals’ rookie left Missouri as the all time receptions leader for TE.  If he wins the starting job in Cincy, expect a strong season.

Slippers

Denver’s Tony Scheffler registered just 3 TD last season with Jay Cutler under center.  Doesn’t seem like stardom is in the offing with Kyle Orton aboard… An uncertain QB situation in Oakland in addition to the Raiders’ home run passing philosophy make it difficult to foresee Zach Miller getting many touches

FANTASY FOOTBALL PICKS

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 12 Fantasy Tight Ends

1. Tony Gonzalez
2. Jason Witten
3. Dustin Keller
4. Dallas Clark
5. Antonio Gates
6. Chris Cooley
7. Kellen Winslow
8. Visante Shiancoe
9. Owen Daniels
10. John Carlson
11. Heath Miller
12. Chase Coffman

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 12 Fantasy Kickers

1. Stephen Gostkowski
2. Rob Bironas
3. Neil Rackers
4. Adam Vinatieri
5. Mason Crosby
6. Jason Elam
7. Ryan Longwell
8. Robbie Gould
9. David Akers
10. Nate Keading
11. Matt Bryant
12. Kris Brown

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 12 Fantasy Defense/Special Teams

1. Vikings
2. Giants
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Jets
6. Chargers
7. Ravens
8. Cowboys
9. Eagles
10. Patriots
11. Dolphins
12. Colts

While many Fantasy Football owners focus on the running backs position as the starting point for their roster, it’s a Wagstaff tenet to, instead, stockpile Wide Receivers at the top of the Fantasy Football draft.  The idea is to take advantage of the fact that many owners severely undervalue the position and by grabbing two WR as soon as possible, you create a huge talent gap between your squad and the first of your opponents to realize that the pool just got very thin.  Now, I wouldn’t recommend that you burn one of the top five picks on a wideout but, if you do find yourself in that position, take an elite back and use the next two picks at WR.  You’ll not only end up with two elite players but you’ll likely start a position run that nets you a RB that slips through the cracks. 

Fantasy Football Rankings for Wide Receiver:

Studs

Andre Johnson is the man here, as the Texans’ superstar carried Waggy’s Holy Shirts and Pants to a semifinal appearance all by himself last season.  220 catches over the last two seasons and an emerging QB in Matt Schaub make him the top guy on our list.   He’ll grab another 100 REC this year and set a career high in TD…  Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald may be the most talented WR in the league but he’s got one drawback for Fantasy Owners that doesn’t exist for the others on this list: A star on the other side.  Fitzgerald’s career year was aided immensely by the prolonged absence of Anquan Boldin, who traditionally scores more TD.  Fitz will still be worth your first pick but his AVG and TD will likely drop…  Imagine what  Calvin Johnson could do if he wasn’t the focus of every team facing the Lions.  In a winless season, he managed 100 YDS in 11 games and scored 12 TD… With Tom Brady returning, Randy Moss should once again be the league’s best home run hitter.  Even though Mat Cassel did an incredible job guiding the Pats to the brink of the playoffs last year, he led a scaled down offense designed to limit mistakes, which hurt Moss owners.  In ’09′ however, chicks dig the long ball.

Stars

The arrivals of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner made a new man of Roddy White as he became Atlanta’s go-to receiver in their unexpected playoff season.  The only thing holding him back was a meager TD total of 7.  As Ryan improves, look for White to top the 88 REC and 1,382 YDS he delivered in ’08… Despite missing 4 games, Anquan Boldin still managed 89 REC and 11 TD.  He’s, once again, looking for a new contract and could find himself taking a back seat to Fitzgerald as the Cards’ shift the focus of their offense to the guy who’s staying.  He’s worth a 2nd or 3rd rounder, just don’t reach… With Marvin Harrison finally out of the picture, Reggie Wayne will get Peyton Manning’s undivided attention.  Considering how well he’s done while sharing it, Wayne is looking at a career year…  Steve Smith was suspended by the Panthers for the first two games of last season then made geniuses of all the Fantasy owners willing to wait for him.  He had over 1,400 YDS on 78 REC.  The only concern here is that his TD total (6) declined for the 4th straight season.

Sleepers

Michael Crabtree was such a great college receiver that Matt Millen would have drafted him were he still the man in Detroit.  As it is, Crabtree brings his incredible skills to San Fran, where he’ll probably team with Josh Morgan to form a terrific young tandem… Good news, bad news for Jericho Cotchery of the Jets. The departure of Laveraneus Coles means that he becomes the big gun but the absence of an established QB could hinder the process.  Bet on Mark Sanchez and take a flier on Cotchery as your third receiver…  Houston’s Kevin Walter is entering his contract year, (we love that), is playing with a QB on the verge of stardom and has defenses focusing on teammate Andre Johnson.  A repeat of last year’s stellar 60 REC, 900 YDS and 8 TD at the cost of a late round pick will make any Fantasy player smile.

Slippers

Has Terrell Owens finally run out of teams willing to put up with his nonsense?  Buffalo is this year’s desperate suitor, acquiring TO in the offseason.  The Bills will likely struggle in the AFC  East, he won’t like sharing the ball with Lee Evans and QB Trent Edwards is nowhere near established enough to command Owens’ respect.  Look for a Thanksgiving meltdown…  Braylon Edwards didn’t make it to the third round of most drafts last year and cost his owners dearly.  A season long case of the drops led to off season trade rumors that never became reality.  Now, he’s back in Cleveland with the same uncertain QB situation and a new coach.  Be careful.

Stiffs

At the end of most drafts, an owner looking to fill his roster inevitably sees a recognizable name and figures there’s no harm in taking the guy.  That’s how Seattle’s Nate Burleson ends up on most fantasy teams.  Don’t let it be yours… Michael Crabtree spells the end of the line for Frisco’s  Isaac Bruce who will be a third down option at best…  Chris Chambers was supposed to find the fountain of youth in San Diego last year.  Instead, he found just 33 REC and 5 TD’s.  Cross Chris off your list.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 25 Fantasy Football Picks for WR:

1. Andre Johnson
2. Larry Fitzgerald
3. Calvin Johnson
4. Randy Moss
5. Roddy White
6. Anquan Boldin
7. Reggie Wayne
8. Greg Jennings
9. Steve Smith
10. Marques Colston
11. Roy Williams
12. Wes Welker
13. Dwayne Bowe
14. Brandon Marshall
15. Vince Jackson
16. Braylon Edwards
17. Michael Crabtree
18. T.J. Houshmandzadeh
19. Antonio Bryant
20. Santonio Holmes
21. Jericho Cotchery
22. Terrell Owens
23. Laveraneus Coles
24. Hines Ward
25. Kevin Walter