by Moonlight Graham

The top ten in my draft this season were Pujols, Hanley, ARod, Mauer, Utley, Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Howard, Longoria and Lincecum.  I know it’s early, but how many of these are still in next year’s first round and who replaces the guys that drop?  Artie DiSori -  Wallin, PA

Hey, Artie.  Looks like your fantasy baseball draft was standard, shotgun format last season. However, it’ll bear little resemblance to next year’s I’m afraid, especially with the emergence of a few young superstars.  If I was to sit at a draft table today, I’d still expect Pujols to top the list.  What follows may surprise some, but it’s how Moonlight’s first draft list will look.  Votto, Hanley, Cabrera, Cano, Braun, CarGO, Longoria, Tulo and King Felix.  Don’t get me wrong; I still love guys like Mauer and Lincecum but prefer to populate my Top Ten with young studs on the rise.

A big problem in my fantasy baseball league this year was that the guys that dumped failed to maintain their rosters for the rest of the season.  Any ideas how we might be able to avoid the same problem next year?  Pete Westad – Ruth, OK

A perennial problem, Pete, like kids stealing candy in a candy store.  You can never really stop it, but you can minimize the effect by adding incentive to team maintenance.  In the Hausier’s Krowedum Roto League, we’re content that we’ve handled it.  First, in a ten team league, we pay the top four spots instead of three.  Second, there is a cash award for each of the twelve statistical categories so, even if a team is out of the running, there’s still a chance for financial gain.  Finally, although our draft order is determined by the previous season’s standings, we don’t just flip the order.  The first selection goes to the fifth place finisher; the highest finisher not in the money.  Then sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth so that everyone is motivated to finish as high as possible.

I’ve finished in the bottom half of my league in each of my first three seasons, mostly due to lack of preparation, I must confess.  How early can I get moving on my fantasy baseball draft prep for 2011 and what are the best resources?  Ray Reilly-  Mumble, AZ

First thing I would do, Ray, is take a look at last year’s draft and see where you may have reached for a player too early and how many guys you drafted based on a peak performance that was probably a career year now unattainable.  That done, my first move is to get a Sirius/XM radio account and tune in to both the MLB Network and the Fantasy Sports Channel (especially Rotowire’s Fantasy Sports Today with Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss).  Both are terrific resources for off-season info not available elsewhere.  Another helpful tool is Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster which ships in early December and can be ordered online at baseballhq.com.  It’s a little heavy on the math and you won’t use all of his theories but there are some tremendously useful trends and statistical info that should give you a leg up on the competition. Lastly, log on to MockDraftCentral and CBSSportsline for free mock drafts starting in January.  Try different tactics: pitchers first, outfielders first, etc., and you’ll garner a very helpful sense of where players are being drafted.

I came very close to winning my head to head league this season on the strength of a terrific draft.  What really ticks me off, however, is that, even though I prepared for my draft better than my competition, I lost to a guy that made in-season pickups like Buster Posey, Travis Wood and Ike Davis.  What’s the best way to identify next year’s rookie stars?  Cookie Gilchrist- Farco, MO

Well, Cook, my first stop would be the Organizational Rankings issues of Baseball America that print throughout the winter. But, at the risk of sounding like a shill for Sirius/XM, MLB Network offers the most comprehensive source of minor league information with its Minors and Majors program every Sunday morning from 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM.  The host, Grant Paulsen, is quite simply, the most knowledgable broadcaster on the subject. That he is also funny and carries the enthusiasm you’d expect from a 22 year old makes the listen that much more enjoyable.

You know you’ve had a good run as a Fantasy Baseball League when you’ve been around to see the entire career of a Hall of Famer like Ken Griffey Jr. Long the property of the Monroe Pearls of the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie League, Griffey was one of the reasons the league decided to no longer retain players from year to year. “I’d like a shot at Junior”, was a common refrain, “why should Fat Cat get to keep him forever?” Griffey, a first-ballot Cooperstown entrant regardless of the injuries that plagued the latter part of his career, was one of the game’s greats; certainly one of Fantasy Baseball’s greatest, and, now that he’s decided to retire,  will be missed. However, he was not the only giant lost to the Fantasy Baseball world as Forte Bellino, long-time owner of the U.B.40′s, U.B. Jews and charter member of the HK Roto League as well as its first champion, passed away suddenly at the sinfully young age of fifty eight.  A high school teacher, administrator and coach, Fortunato left behind legions of family, students, colleagues and waiters (his favorites)  that he filed under the one category that mattered to him most: friend.

Known to many simply as “B”, his legacy spread nationwide as his young charges grew into middle age, forged successful careers and became parents.  It was a secret to no one that he had, literally, thousands of friends yet, no matter how crowded the venue, his patented, “What’s up there, son?”, made you feel as if he’d arrived specifically to see you.  While everyone has a few hundred “B” stories, those told about his time in our Fantasy Baseball League are, far and away, my favorites.

Founded in 1988, the HK League preceded the website era.  No CBSSportsline there; our stats were compiled by a guy on Long Island working out of his garage. The biggest problem we faced was determining which owner was the first to claim a free agent.  The solution, as it evolved, was to install a phone line in someone’s house, get him to volunteer to keep track of the daily transactions and change the outgoing message on the answering machine so that everyone else in the league was current. It was in this role that Forte developed something of a cult following.

Not content to simply drone on about the acquisition of Mark Gubicza or the dismissal of Tim Laudner, Forte quickly expanded the format. There were trivia questions, birthday and anniversary wishes, thoroughbred handicapping, predictions about anything from elections to the Academy awards, movie critiques and, of course, the thing for which he became most famous, restaurant reviews. There were more than a few times that I called in and, by the time he was done, forgot the move I’d wanted to make.

His performances became legendary.  At one time, Forte counted twenty daily callers that had absolutely nothing to do with our league.  Friends and acquaintances began to call and passed the number along to others.  My personal favorite was the telemarketer from Wisconsin. Having reached the league line without knowing the nature of its existence, he enjoyed that day’s message so much that he jotted the number down and called every day for two seasons. And everyone looked forward to a transaction involving former MLB pitcher Kenny Rogers; as it prompted B into his favorite ditty, “Gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, know when to run…”

We’ll all miss Forte Bellino for a very long time as he was someone who, through his own example, inspired people in all walks of life to be better men and women.  By extension, their good work will extend his legacy forever. I just wish I could still pick up the phone and learn where to find the best German restaurant in Queens. Clarence, the guardian angel,  told George Bailey that “no man is a failure who has friends.”  Congratulations, then, Forte, on your wonderful life.  “What’s up there, son?”

In the Hausier’s Krowedum Fantasy Baseball League, as well as many Dynasty, or Keeper, leagues across the country, Minor Leaguers can play an important role.  Drafting and holding on to prospects that are close to making contributions on the Major League level is a great way to supplement your Fantasy Baseball roster and increase your chances for a championship. If you don’t draft Minor Leaguers, it’s still worth a look, as some are good enough to warrant selection in a regular Fantasy Baseball Draft. What follows is a list of Moonlight’s Top Ten prospects for 2010; players who have yet to play in the majors ranked as much for their chances to see significant time in the big leagues this year as for their talent.  Good luck. Just twenty one days ’til pitchers and catchers!

1) Stephen Strasburg RHP (Nationals-AFL) As a senior at San Diego State, Strasburg had a 13-1 record that featured a 1.95 ERA and 195 K in 109 IP.  He and his 100 MPH fastball could be in Nats’ rotation without ever having played in the Minors. He was 4-1 as he made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League.

2) Chris Carter 1B (Athletics-AAA) His OBP of .422 is enough to make GM Billy Beane swoon.  He also clouted 32 HR and 115 RBI while batting .329.  AL Rookie of the Year candidate will probably start the year in Oakland.

3) Carlos Santana C (Indians-AA) His power numbers are sterling enough for a backstop,(22 HR 93 RBI), but what sets him apart from the pack is the 90 runs he scored and his .413 OBP; unheard of for players at his position. The Indians traded both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach to clear room for him so; he may be the Tribe’s starter on Opening Day.

4) Jason Heyward OF (Braves-AAA) In just 99 games, Heyward, Atlanta’s top prospect, hit .323 with 17 HR and 63 RBI.  Throw in 25 doubles, a few of which will become dingers as he matures, and you can see why the Bravos are so hot for him.

5) Pedro Alvarez 3B (Pirates-AA) Biggest obstacle facing the top overall pick from ’08 may be the Pirates tight checkbook.  Keeping his arbitration clock from starting would be the only reason to keep Alvarez in the Minors to start the season. He turned in a solid pro debut last year, (.288-27-95) and is better than any of the Bucs’ alternatives.

6) Travis Wood LHP (Reds-AAA) Tough to draft a rookie pitcher who’ll call the Great American Ballpark his home, but Wood’s got the stuff. 13-5 at AAA last year with a miniscule 1.777 ERA and 1.04 WHIP; he knows how to pitch.

7) Jeremy Hellickson RHP (Rays-AAA) This far down the list only because the Rays are, historically, patient to a fault with their young hurlers.  However, it’ll be hard to keep his K Rate, (10.4/9IP), or his ungodly WHIP, (0.94) in the Minors for long.  Future ace.

8 ) Michael Taylor OF (Athletics-AAA) A 20-20 prospect that Billy Beane plucked from the Jays for Brett Wallace.  Another high OBP guy, (.395), Taylor might find a spot with the rebuilding A’s

9)Brett Wallace 3B (Blue Jays-AAA)Wallace was the key guy shipped from the Cardinals to the A’s in the Matt Holliday trade and was then sent to Toronto over the winter.  He’s got a solid bat, (.293 BA 20 HR), and has only to beat Edwin Encarnacion and/or Lyle Overbay for AB at either corner spot.

10) Drew Locke 1B (Astros-AA) Posted a ledger of .338-20-109 in just 129 games last year.  At first glance, blocked at 1B by Lance Berkman, but Houston could always move Lance back to the outfield if Locke continues to mash.

Fantasy Baseball League

Streaking- Your biggest concern here is making sure you have players that will actually be in the lineup.  As insane as it might sound to waive/bench Alex Rodriguez for Minnesota’s Matt Tolbert, it makes sense when you realize that ARod will probably rest this weekend while Tolbert and the Twins desperately strive for the post season.  Other teams that will still be playing for something are the Braves, Rockies, Cardinals, Phillies and Dodgers.  St. Louis and Philadelphia are battling for the second seed in the NL while the Braves and rockies contend for the Wild Card.  Even Los Angeles has a vested interest this weekend as they’re head to head matchup with Colorado will determine the Wild Card.  Make no mistake, Joe Torre’s boys absolutely care about that as they look to avoid seeing the Cards’ deep rotation in the first round.  You’ll also want to use players approaching milestones as well as rookies being auditioned by bad teams; Washington’s Mike Morse for example.  One other piece of advice:  Pick up as many free agents from the Twins and Tigers as you can.  If they finish in a tie, their one game playoff is a regular season game and the stats count.  Right now it looks like Nate Robertson and Carl Pavano would be the starters.

Stalling- Veteran players and starting pitchers on the Angels, Red Sox and Yankees will likely be no help to you this weekend as they will be rested by managers fine-tuning their lineups for the post season.  You’ll get a game from each, probably, but that won’t do you any good if you need a few R or RBI.  You’ll also want to rid yourself of young pitchers whose teams are looking to limit their IP.  No matter what’s listed, the possibility exists they won’t go.  Stay on top of that.  Continue, also, to keep away from veterans like Miguel Tejada who are losing playing time while the organization auditions rookies at their positions.

It’s always sad to see the season come to an end.  Congratulations to the winners and good luck to those less fortunate as they prepare their rosters for a big 2010.  We’ll be back next week with a playoff preview and follow that up with out Fantasy Awards.

It’s been a disappointing Major League season for those fans that enjoy September pennant races as each division seems to be locked up and only the NL Wild Card spot is still being contested.  We might see one more divisional race if the Twins can sweep the Tigers this weekend but, with their pitching, it’s not likely.  For baseball purists, the final month has been a letdown.

The absence of close races will have a bearing on Fantasy Baseball owners also, as they’ll be forced to keep an eye on star players that are vital to their Fantasy Baseball teams being rested as their MLB team preps for the post season.  So, if you’re looking to pick up an important point or two in the W or ERA categories, be aware that C.C. Sabathia or Chris Carpenter might be passed over in order to get a little more rest before the playoffs.  Likewise, dependable veterans on teams out of the mix; guys like Paul Konerko and Miguel Tejada, to name two, may find a seat on the bench as their teams audition younger players.  The bottom line is, if you’re lucky enough to still be in the running for your league title, it is more important to keep an eye on the box scores now than at any other point in the season.

Streaking

Arizona’s Juan Gutierrez is making a case to be the D’Backs’ 2010 closer with 4 S and 1 W in September… Tommy Hanson has a 0.45 ERA over three September starts for Atlanta… Kansas City’s Robinson Tejeda is 2-0 over three starts with 18 K.  When did you ever think he’d be a piece of your puzzle?… Seattle’s Ryan Rowland-Smith has gone 7 IP in each of his last four starts while posting a 2.61 ERA…

Stalling

Houston’s Miguel Tejada will see his playing time decrease as the Astros audition Tommy Manzelli at SS… Chad Billingsley’s most recent turn in the rotation was skipped as he has struggled over the last month… Despite extended rest, Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo was ripped in his last start and could be shut down for the rest of the year… Even though his last outing was a strong one, Chris Tillman may be shut down by the Orioles as they try to limit his IP… Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona is 1-5, 5.48 in his last nine starts… Jorge Posada will miss the weekend after being suspended for his ridiculous display during the Yankees- Blue Jays game on Wednesday… A.J. Burnett continues to struggle, going 1-4, 6.75 over his last six starts.  It’s been awhile since any of his teammates hit him with a pie… Take the 5-0 record given you by Pedro Martinez and run.  In his last start, the fragile Martinez threw 130 pitches, the most he’s thrown since 2002.  That followed a 119 pitch game in his previous outing.  You can’t expect him to hold up under the strain…

Sick Bay

Washington C Jesus Flores is done for the year after shoulder surgery… Justin Morneau will be out for the year with a stress fracture in his back… Kevin Youkilis has missed three straight with back spasms and could be out through the weekend… Detroit’s Jarrod Washburn is out with a bad knee… Yankees’ starter Andy Pettitte will miss a turn due to shoulder fatigue… Texas OF Josh Hamilton may miss the rest of the year with back issues…

As if being a fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates wasn’t tough enough, there was this gem to deal with from Bucs’ GM Neal Huntington after the latest rounds of trades stripped the franchise of most of its remaining Major League talent.  “We don’t feel like we’ve broken up the ’27 Yankees.”  Maybe not, but they’re certainly on there way to assembling the ’62 Mets.  While it is the bane of the small market team that it must eventually dump promising players that become too expensive, most still manage to be cyclically competitive.  Not the Pirates, though. They resemble the guy in your Fantasy Baseball League that buys his preview magazines on his way to the draft. During Pittsburgh’s current streak of 17 consecutive losing seasons, the Twins, A’s, Marlins, Brewers, Reds, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays and Rays have all managed at least one playoff appearance.  What have they done differently than the Pirates?  They’ve actually developed the prospects they’ve received in exchange for their stars.  But, in Pittsburgh, there exists a revolving door through which even young and relatively inexpensive talent is dispatched.  It is not uncommon for a struggling franchise to request the patience of its fans as it rebuilds.  Hell, watching young, exciting players earn their stripes is a lot of fun.  The Pirates, however, have stripped their fans of even that bit of enjoyment by trading away the very players they said they were building upon just last winter.  As for Huntington’s crack about the ’27 Yankees, he has a point.  However, while he may not have had this era’s equivalent of Murderer’s Row, a lineup featuring Nate McLouth, Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Doumit, Aramis Ramirez and Nyjer Morgan would absolutely be a contender in the NL Central… The White Sox acquisition of Jake Peavy smells of desperation, especially since the former Cy Young winner won’t be available for another month… Alex Gordon is back in the Royals lineup but is admittedly not at full strength, as evidenced by his sub-Mendoza BA… Ben Zobrist is now the Rays’ cleanup hitter…  With the departure of Nick Johnson to the Marlins, Washington recalled OF Elijah Dukes, who will likely see regular playing time… NL Rookie of the Month, Greg Jones of Pittsburgh, had 10 HR and just 17 RBI… Love Felipe Lopez, playing for a contract, at the top of the Brewers’ lineup… Cleveland will use the newly acquired Justin Masterson as a starter… Brandon Inge has yet to hit a dinger since the All Star break.  As predicted here, he’s tailing off but still a prime player if you can use him as a catcher… Andre Ethier, the Dodgers’ leading RBI man is now their #2 hitter…

BUY LOW- John Danks has raised his record to 9-7 in giving the White Sox 3 solid starts since the break… Love Orlando Cabrera’s potential for R, BA and even a few HR hitting in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau in Minny… The Tigers skipped rookie Rick Porcello’s turn once before the break and then slotted him into the back end of the rotation afterward, essentially giving him more than two weeks off.  The rest has done him wonders, as he’s been dominant in his last two outings… Jarrod Washburn should see his W total get a nice bump now that he’s in Detroit… D’Backs OF Gerardo Parra leads all NL rookies in RBI… Adam LaRoche spent a week in Boston before returning to Atlanta, where he can resume his annual assault on the season’s second half…

SELL HIGH- Were it not for his HR prowess, Tampa’s Carlos Pena would be listed in the Drop Zone instead.  As it is, unless you’re desperate for power, dump his .216 BA… All Star closer, Andrew Bailey, leads AL rookies with 14 S but may not see a lot of opportunities the rest of the way if the A’s rotation continues to struggle.  Their ERA for July was 6.34…

GRAB BAG- With manager Dave Trembley souring on Melvin Mora, Ty Wigginton will likely get regular playing time at 3B… The Royals recalled Kyle Davies, who struggled early in the season but went 4-2, 2.14 in AAA Omaha… Sean O’Sullivan, fresh off a AAA no-hitter, may be an option to supplant Joe Saunders in the Angels’ rotation. He’s 3-0, 3.72 for Los Angeles this year…  Rangers’ rookie Neftali Feliz, he of the 100 MPH fastball, will be used out of the pen and could get a look in the ninth inning if Frank Francisco continues to deal with health issues… Jason Frasor is Toronto’s first choice as closer with Scott Downs on the DL… Love Nick Johnson in the middle of the Marlins’ order.  He’s a great OBP option…

DROP ZONE- Milwaukee’s Braden Looper has become a BP pitcher since the break, going winless while watching his ERA balloon to 5.16… Pull the plug on Detroit’s Armando Gallaraga before Jim Leyland does and chalk up last season’s numbers as a fluke… Minnesota’s Glen Perkins gave the Twinkies one solid start after coming off the DL and then reverted back to his struggling form in his next outing.  Can’t wait on a guy with a 5.42 ERA that’s on the rise… Melvin Mora has lost his starting job in Baltimore and has started whining about a lack of respect from the manager…

SICK BAY- Kansas City’s Gil Meche may return from a back problem this weekend.  Remember, though, back is a four letter word… Blue Jays’ stopper Scott Downs is on the 15 day DL with a foot injury… Carlos Zambrano left his last start with a bad back, something that will likely continue until he addresses his large front… Astros’ OF Willy Taveras missed four starts with a bad wrist…  Milwaukee place OF Corey Hart on the DL after an appendectomy…

Contenders should always target statistical categories when making a trade and factor potential monetary gains into a player’s valuation.  For instance, if you find that there is potential for a bump of three points in a tightly bunched ERA category and the prize for winning your league is $500, you should give up significantly more for Joel Pineiro or Jarrod Washburn than you would have back in April or May.  They may not be players worthy of a high draft pick or stud keeper under normal circumstances but they are when you can win.  Don’t underbid.

Be alert for peripheral deals that can help you by hurting your opposition.  Earlier this week in the HK League, Bobby Carr found his Skippy Shakes looking up at the Shady Gradys.   Carr saw that he had a big lead in HR and was locked into 6^th place in SB; 20 behind and 20 ahead of his closest rivals.  The Gradys however had a slim 2 SB lead over the Four Horsemen.  As Carr is just 6 points behind the second place Gradys in the overall standings, he sent Alex Rios to the Horsemen, hoping the addition would vault the Horsemen to the top of the category and take a valuable point away from a rival.  A deal like this can be more valuable to you than an acquisition.

If you’re back in the pack and find yourself selling instead of buying, act quickly, as the contenders will be willing to give up only so much and you could be left holding the bag.  Such is the case for Ken Jankowski of GMoney, who came out of the HK Fantasy Baseball draft with a team full of studs that would soon end up on the DL.  Disappointed, Kenny set out to improve draft position for next year.  The problem was, the four contenders had already made a number of deals for high draft picks and there wasn’t a lot left.  He moved Alex Rodriguez for a 2^nd rounder and as of this writing was still holding Mark Teixeira without a deal in sight.

Finally, if you are a seller, don’t just turn your attention to your Fantasy Football Draft as soon as the deadline passes.  Keep an eye on your team as it is your responsibility to help maintain the integrity of the standings.  You don’t have to grab free agents every day, especially if it’ll cost you money, but you owe it to the rest of the league to replace injured player

*              *              *              *              *

Buy Low- Don’t let Cliff Lee’s record fool you.  After a rough April, he’s spent the last three months throwing every bit as well as he did in winning the Cy Young last year.  Now that he’s in Philly, look for the W to pile up… Despite a seven game win streak, Rockies’ starter Aaron Cook remains a free agent in some mixed leagues.  Even if he’s not, see if his owner’s been paying attention… Cole Hamels has put three strong starts together since the break and might be a nice deadline pickup for your squad… Might be your last chance to

Sell High- The Orioles are actively looking to move George Sherrill with the Dodgers as one of the destinations.  With Jonathan Broxton entrenched in the closer’s role, Sherrill would no longer be a source for S… Tampa’s James Shields is winless in his last 7 starts… Rangers’ 2B Ian Kinsler has struggled for two months while his BA has dropped to .242.  If you’re NOT in a keeper league, he’d bring a boat load of draft picks… Clint Barmes’ slump has gotten so bad that Rockies’ manager Jim Tracy recently dropped him from 2^nd to 8^th in the batting order…

Grab Bag- Cubs’ C Koyie Hill has started every game since Geovany Soto went down with an injury. OF/3B is his only backup… Bronson Arroyo has put together quite a few solid starts over the last two months and could see his value leap if he’s traded to a contender… This might be your last chance to pick up the red hot Josh Willingham. Hope you read Moonlight two weeks ago…

Drop Zone- No room at the inn for Ben Francisco, who moves from the Indians’ OF to the Phillies’ bench… Magglio Ordonez needs just 130 plate appearances for a 2010 option for $18 million kicks in.  The way he’s hitting, can’t see the Tigers allowing that to happen… Royals’ reliever, Juan Cruz, is 0-2 with two blown saves since the All Star break… Despite the Angels’ success, Joe Saunders continues to struggle with a 6.58 ERA over his last 11 starts… Chad Tracy is no longer an option in even the deepest of NL only leagues as the D’Backs look to the future…

Sick Bay- Carlos Beltran estimates he is 2-3 weeks away from a return to the Mets lineup after sitting out with a bone bruise in his knee… Yanks’ hurler Chien Ming Wang will undergo season ending surgery, as will Twins’ starter Kevin Slowey… Seattle 3B Adrian Beltre is expected back from a shoulder injury in two weeks… Houston’s Lance Berkman is on the 15 day DL with a strained calf…

Buy Low- With his A’s in the basement and the trade deadline approaching, look for Billy Beane to move Matt Holliday soon. A move out of Oakland’s spacious ballpark could be just what he needs… Might be your last chance for David Ortiz, as his 8 HR in June indicate his hand is all the way back…

Sell High- Now that the Padres have traded Scott Hairston, no one is left to protect Adrian Gonzalez, who had 21 BB while Hairston was on the DL… 3B Aramis Ramirez is expected to return to the Cubs’ lineup today, signaling the likely end of regular playing time for Jake Fox… Alfonso Soriano is on this list instead of the Drop Zone only because he has a recognizable name. He’s carrying a .226 BA and has been dropped to sixth in the Cubs’ order…

Grab Bag- Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera has been performing capably in the leadoff spot with a .304 BA… Ben Francisco, after posting a .141 June BA, hit .409 over the Indians’ nine game homestand… Tony Gwynn is the Padres’ only true CF and should remain in the leadoff spot for awhile… Pittsburgh’s Virgil Vasquez has turned in a quality start in each of his two starts since being called up from AAA…

Drop Zone- Just because the Yankees are obsessed with force feeding Joba Chamberlain into their starting rotation doesn’t mean you should. He can’t get out of the fifth inning… Josh Fields is out of a job as the White Sox have given Gordon Beckham the 3B spot…

Sick Bay- Kansas City’s Mike Aviles is through for the season after Tommy John surgery…Randy Johnson left his last start with a left shoulder strain…

Farm Fresh- Milwaukee’s Manny Parra, who struggled mightily early in the season, is 1-2 with a 2.92 ERA in four AAA starts since being sent down.

Never let it be said that anyone mistook Moonlight for Mel Kiper Jr.  While the ESPN NFL Draft pundit subjects each franchise to his highly subjective scrutiny each April, he rarely, if ever, looks back at his own projections to review how successful or disastrous they might have been.  Not so here at the Fantasy Forecast.

It is the nature of Roto players to not only crow about their selections that worked out but also bemoan those picks that derailed their chances at winning.  So, as a dyed in the wool Roto man myself, here is the Moonlight report card for 2008.  A review of the fantasy sleepers that panned out and the studs that blew up.

Best Picks- SP A.J. Burnett fell just short of 20 W in Toronto while leading the AL in K. SP Rich Harden remained mostly healthy and posted an incredible ERA and K ratio.   C Geovany Soto worked his way up to the middle of the Cubs’ order by September while posting 23 HR and 86 RBI in his first full year.  OF Corey Hart gave the Brewers a 20-20 season while Rays’ C Dioner Navarro made his first All Star team. In Texas, 2B Ian Kinsler was leading the league in BA and TB when he went down in August and Rockies’ OF Brad Hawpe was a second half RBI machine. Even Manny Ramirez, devalued in many drafts, brought smiles to those who followed Moonlight’s advice.

Worst Picks- Tigers’ 1B, 3B, SS Carlos Guillen made a mockery of his 100 RBI projection with a sub-par fantasy season filled with injury.  Troy Tulowitzki did the same.  What many fail to realize, however, is that he was really bad before he got hurt, raising questions about the Rockies’ SS heading into ’09.  Rickie Weeks was a Moonlight favorite who turned into a bust as he spent most of the year battling to raise his BA over .220. In Houston, C J.R. Towles was so bad, the Astros turned to Brad Ausmus.

Incomplete-Angels’ C Mike Napoli started and finished the season on fire.  It was the injury plagued middle that turned out to be the problem.  Still, a C who pokes 20 HR in under 300 AB has value in any season.  The Twins spent most of the summer with their best pitcher in Rochester.  In a financial gambit that likely cost them the AL Central crown, they left SP Francisco Liriano in AAA where he posted a 10-1 record with a sub 2.00 ERA rather than recall him and start his arbitration clock.

Best Call-SP Chad Billingsley would be the Dodgers’ ace by year end.

Worst Call- Braves’ OF Jeff Francoeur would win the NL MVP award.  (The HK Fantasy League has had a lot of fun with this one.)

The HK Fantasy Baseball League

Did he really do that?

Last Sunday morning, having received an absolute gem from Johan Santana the day before, Skippy Shakes owner Bob Carr looked at the HK Fantasy standings and found himself one point ahead of the Mean Street Posse and a point and a half ahead of Ricciardi Brothers Inc. Having waged a two month assault on the top spot from as far back as twenty seven points, Carr had finally grabbed the lead with just one day to go. Unfortunately, he couldn’t leave well enough alone and almost managed himself out of a title.

One of the deals that catapulted his Shakes squad in the last two months was the acquisition of C.C. Sabathia. As the Brewers’ ace carried his squad toward the playoffs, he also carried Carr; allowing the Shakes to make huge gains in the pitching categories. So, with C.C. on the bump for Milwaukee’s finale, Carr was sitting pretty. Santana had given him the slightest of leads in ERA and WHIP. Leads that were crucial to holding on to the top spot. So, what did Carr do? He reserved Sabathia rather than risk a bad outing. The plan was to stay right where he was and allow the others to fall back. Sadly, he paid no mind to the results of his last grand plan to protect his ERA; the ill fated benching of Hideo Nomo on the day he threw a no-no at Coor’s Field. Lightning couldn’t strike twice in the same place, could it?

As Sabathia was holding the Cubbies to just four hits and one run during his complete game, Carr watched in horror as Jerry Manuel summoned Luis Ayala from the bullpen for the Mets. True to form, Ayala grooved one for Dan Uggla, pushing Carr’s ERA just below Ricciardi Bros. and creating a three way tie. That Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jimenez had strong outings for RBI only served to drop the Shakes further down in the category. Carr was distraught.

Resigning himself to being the perpetrator of the biggest bonehead move in league history, he flipped through the channels to see if there were any games still going on. That’s when he stumbled across the ninth inning of the Mariners- A’s game and found the now beautiful J.J.Putz standing on the mound protecting a one run lead. Forgetting for the moment that he had cursed Putz’s incompetence for two months, he now begged his fellow redhead for just three outs. You see, Carr was also tied in the saves category and could gain a critical half point if Putz could only close out the A’s. He did and Carr had his league title by the slimmest of margins. He still pulled the biggest gaffe in fantasy league history but at least it didn’t cost him a Yoo-Hoo shower.

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Next week, we’ll start to look back at the 2008 season with Fantasy Awards and readers’ tales of their successes and failures, booms and busts and plans going forward. Enjoy the playoffs as we turn our focus back to the world where the only numbers that count are the ones on the scoreboard. Incidentally, I like a Rays- Cubs World Series so, you might want to put a little money down on any of the other six teams.