Stand outside the draft room of any Fantasy Baseball League and you’ll run into him when it’s all over.  He’s in every league; we all know him.  He’s the guy who selects an All Star team from two years prior but, because of injuries, starts every scouting report with, “If he stays healthy…”

Truth be told, there is room for but one or two comebacks on any successful Fantasy baseball team.  More than that and you’re pushing the odds that are stacked against you.  And, like your buddy who’ll spend the winter telling anyone who’ll listen that, “If my guys hadn’t gotten hurt…” you’ll be at the bottom of your standings.

Here at FantasySportsDirt.com, there’s an opinion on a few guys at each position that are trying to return to form.  Some, we’d stay away from at all costs while others, we’d roll the dice on.  Keeping in mind that, no matter how much we like any of them, there’s no way in the world we’d take more than two.

Catcher-   Stay away from Jesus Flores in Washington.  The Nationals had high hopes for him just two years ago but chronic shoulder problems do not sit well behind the plate.  The same cannot be said for Ryan Doumit in Pittsburgh as his injuries have forced the Pirates to send him to the outfield.  We love catcher-eligibles playing other positions.

First Base- It’ll be tough to pass on an all time favorite, Justin Morneau.  But, pass we must as the Twins’ first baseman has still not resumed baseball activities.  Concussions can be dicey and this one’s not worth the gamble.  We’re less worried by broken bones, however, so Kendry Morales will be on the radar.  Don’t forget that he was having a great start to 2010 before that fateful walk-off.

Second Base- Dustin Pedroia is another star with a broken bone but a full complement of healthy ligaments and tendons.  Slot the former MVP accordingly.  Brian Roberts is another story.  All we have to say; what we’ve always said, is that “back” is a four letter word.

Shortstop- New Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson may have ignited a terrific season from Jose Reyes when he declined to negotiate a long term contract before the season.  Reyes, who came back from a thyroid problem, will now have to sing for his supper.  Take him and enjoy the discount.  Down the turnpike, Jimmy Rollins is an gaing injury risk, who, even when healthy, has seen his fantasy totals plummet, especially OBP.

Third Base- We’ve reached the point where we have to categorize certain injuries as “steroid induced”. Such is the case with Alex Rodriguez, whose joints seem to be a problem.  However, he’s a virtual lock for 30 HR and 100 RBI, just forget the steals.  Aside from all of his other ailments, Chipper Jones, at 38, will now attempt to return from ACL surgery.  He may be a first ballot Hall of Famer, but if he was a horse, they’d shoot him.

Outfield- Over the course of the last few years, micro-fracture surgery has become a somewhat insurmountable procedure.  Carlos Beltran proved our theory last year and, even though he’s in the last year of his contract, a FantasySportsView.com favorite, we have to say no.  Same goes for Grady Sizemore, as we focus more on his lackluster ’09 and the weak Cleveland lineup than his return to form with a broken wrist.  Keeping our focus in New York, Jason Bay should be available in the late rounds of any draft.  He’s returning from a concussion but is said to be OK and will likely make an adjustment to the expanse of CitiField .  In Boston, Jacoby Ellsbury finally got the proper amount of time to rest his ribcage, the only way that was ever going to heal.  He missed virtually all of 2010 because he wasn’t patient with his rehab but should score 120 runs at the top of Boston’s new lineup.

In the more than twenty years that the Forte Bellino Fantasy Baseball League has been in existence, the most consistently fatal blow to the title chances of any league member has been the obsession with positions where there are just a few elite options and a significant drop to the next tier.  There are some Fantasy players, no matter how often they’ve been burned, that will grab a catcher or middle infielder in the first three rounds regardless of the fact that they have no chance to receive adequate return on such an expensive investment.  If you number yourself among that group, read on and see if you can be convinced that you’re putting yourself behind the eight ball before the season begins.

Now, if you’ve followed the Fantasy Forecast for any length of time, you’ve become familiar with my draft strategies.  The roster grid, outfielders first, avoiding young hurlers whose IP have spiked, etc., have all been detailed on these pages as staples of the Master Batters selection process.  All strategies that, regardless of any opinion regarding their effectiveness, are cloaked in simplicity.  Important to note, as so many well-prepared, astute Fantasy players can’t avoid outsmarting themselves when it comes to forming their rosters.

Most recently, the Position Scarcity dilemma reared its ugly head at the Fantasy Sports Trade Association draft last week.  Thirteen experts gathered in Las Vegas for the event, aired by SiriusXM radio’s Fantasy Sports Network.  And, it didn’t take long for the elite of the Fantasy world to fall down the rabbit hole; more concerned with where a player is eligible rather than how well he’ll produce.  With the 8th pick, Scott Swanay of the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa cited position scarcity as the main reason he selected Mets’ 3B David Wright instead of  Reds’ 1B Joey Votto.  Now, I’m not here to diminish the across-the-board prowess of Mr. Wright, a Fantasy stud for most of his career.  However, when you analyze this selection a little more deeply, you realize just how much Mr. Swanay sacrificed for a few  SB.

Votto, the reigning NL MVP, posted Pujols-like numbers in 2010.  Second in BA, third in HR and RBI while turning in a league best 1.024 OBP, Votto has entrenched himself as a Triple Crown threat.  He also, by the way, presented his owners with a very solid total of 16 SB.  Wright, on the other hand, managed to rebound from a dismal 2009 and return to an elite level with 29 HR and 103 RBI.  But, the adjustments necessary to crank out that many jacks in the hitter’s cemetery that is Citifield caused his BA to plummet 24 points; from .307 to .283.  Throw in the fact that his SB total was just two bags more than Votto’s and you begin to see where I’m going with this argument:  Is a Fantasy team better with David Wright and Kevin Youkilis, (Swanay’s 3rd Round selection), or with Votto and Ryan Zimmerman, the first two selections made by KFFL’s Tim Heaney?  Let’s take a look at what 2010 revealed.

Sherpa            BA     HR    RBI    SB
Wright            .283   29      103     19
Youkilis          .307  19         62       4
KFFL                 BA    HR    RBI    SB
Votto               .324   37      113     16
Zimmerman      .307   25      85       4

Before you start jumping up and down about how Youk spent significant time on the DL in 2010, I’ll point out that, not only are injuries a part of the game, Zimmerman’s numbers were down from his usual standards, as well.  The point of the example is to re-re-re-emphasize that, no matter how strong the temptation to fill a spot at a weak position, you must, first, get proper value for early round picks.  I don’t care if David Wright is the only 3B in the Majors, Votto is better than Wright by a wide margin and must be grabbed first.

If you listen closely, you can hear the question, “OK, Mr. Genius, what do I do when I’m in the eighth round of my draft and I don’t have a shortstop?”  Glad you asked.  Forget the shortstop and grab another player at a position where you’re already strong.  While you may not need another OF or SP, stockpiling quality at those spots will yield a shortstop in a trade once the season begins.  While you may have no need for Francisco Liriano after taking Roy Halladay and Jon Lester, any of the three could be a chip that brings back a Rollins or Reyes..

Another important thing to keep in mind, especially in Head-to-Head leagues where active rosters are smaller, is that scarce positions yield league-wide weakness.  Simply put, almost everyone in your league will struggle with MI or C so, you’re not at a distinct disadvantage.

Hopefully, what you’ll take away from this discussion is that the foundation of your team is built in the early rounds; making them too valuable to go in any direction other than the best player available.

By Moonlight Graham

It was a banner year for rookies in Major League Baseball as more than a few newcomers not only burst onto the scene in a big way, but turned their teams into contenders. The American League Rookie of the Year, Rangers’ RP Neftali Feliz, set a rookie record for saves and firmed up the Texas bullpen to the tune of a World Series appearance.   He wasn’t the AL’s only impact newbie, as Minnesota’s Danny Valencia filled a void at third base for the champions of the AL Central.   In the National League, Travis Wood performed so well for Cincinnati that even Dusty Baker, notorious for his disdain of rookies, couldn’t keep him out of the rotation. Then there was NL Rookie of the Year, Buster Posey, who was not just the most important player in the lineup for the World Champion Giants, but impacted the Rangers’ championship run by making then San Francisco catcher Bengie Molina Aavilable.  Now, That’s a game changer.

In the Fantasy Baseball world, owners are always trying to uncover these hidden gems.   There isn’t a Fantasy league champion among us that doesn’t have a story about the rookie sleeper that took advantage of both talent and opportunity and  carried him to a Yoo-Hoo shower.  Who might some of these players be in 2011? Let’s take a look.

Jeremy Hellickson- Rays’ fans can talk about David Price all they want.  He may very well be in possession of his first CY Young Award by the time you read this but Hellickson may be the ace of the future.  His Minor League command statistics are incredible; better than Price’s, and he performed very well in a late season call-up.

Domonic Brown- If the Phillies decide to part ways with Jayson Werth, Philadelphia fans may forget all about him when Brown takes over.  He hit a combined .327 in two Minor League stops with 20 HR and 68 RBI in just 343 AB.  Throw in 17 SB and you can see why worth or Raul Ibanez are expendable.

by Moonlight Graham

The top ten in my draft this season were Pujols, Hanley, ARod, Mauer, Utley, Braun, Miguel Cabrera, Howard, Longoria and Lincecum.  I know it’s early, but how many of these are still in next year’s first round and who replaces the guys that drop?  Artie DiSori -  Wallin, PA

Hey, Artie.  Looks like your fantasy baseball draft was standard, shotgun format last season. However, it’ll bear little resemblance to next year’s I’m afraid, especially with the emergence of a few young superstars.  If I was to sit at a draft table today, I’d still expect Pujols to top the list.  What follows may surprise some, but it’s how Moonlight’s first draft list will look.  Votto, Hanley, Cabrera, Cano, Braun, CarGO, Longoria, Tulo and King Felix.  Don’t get me wrong; I still love guys like Mauer and Lincecum but prefer to populate my Top Ten with young studs on the rise.

A big problem in my fantasy baseball league this year was that the guys that dumped failed to maintain their rosters for the rest of the season.  Any ideas how we might be able to avoid the same problem next year?  Pete Westad – Ruth, OK

A perennial problem, Pete, like kids stealing candy in a candy store.  You can never really stop it, but you can minimize the effect by adding incentive to team maintenance.  In the Hausier’s Krowedum Roto League, we’re content that we’ve handled it.  First, in a ten team league, we pay the top four spots instead of three.  Second, there is a cash award for each of the twelve statistical categories so, even if a team is out of the running, there’s still a chance for financial gain.  Finally, although our draft order is determined by the previous season’s standings, we don’t just flip the order.  The first selection goes to the fifth place finisher; the highest finisher not in the money.  Then sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth so that everyone is motivated to finish as high as possible.

I’ve finished in the bottom half of my league in each of my first three seasons, mostly due to lack of preparation, I must confess.  How early can I get moving on my fantasy baseball draft prep for 2011 and what are the best resources?  Ray Reilly-  Mumble, AZ

First thing I would do, Ray, is take a look at last year’s draft and see where you may have reached for a player too early and how many guys you drafted based on a peak performance that was probably a career year now unattainable.  That done, my first move is to get a Sirius/XM radio account and tune in to both the MLB Network and the Fantasy Sports Channel (especially Rotowire’s Fantasy Sports Today with Jeff Erickson and Chris Liss).  Both are terrific resources for off-season info not available elsewhere.  Another helpful tool is Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster which ships in early December and can be ordered online at baseballhq.com.  It’s a little heavy on the math and you won’t use all of his theories but there are some tremendously useful trends and statistical info that should give you a leg up on the competition. Lastly, log on to MockDraftCentral and CBSSportsline for free mock drafts starting in January.  Try different tactics: pitchers first, outfielders first, etc., and you’ll garner a very helpful sense of where players are being drafted.

I came very close to winning my head to head league this season on the strength of a terrific draft.  What really ticks me off, however, is that, even though I prepared for my draft better than my competition, I lost to a guy that made in-season pickups like Buster Posey, Travis Wood and Ike Davis.  What’s the best way to identify next year’s rookie stars?  Cookie Gilchrist- Farco, MO

Well, Cook, my first stop would be the Organizational Rankings issues of Baseball America that print throughout the winter. But, at the risk of sounding like a shill for Sirius/XM, MLB Network offers the most comprehensive source of minor league information with its Minors and Majors program every Sunday morning from 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM.  The host, Grant Paulsen, is quite simply, the most knowledgable broadcaster on the subject. That he is also funny and carries the enthusiasm you’d expect from a 22 year old makes the listen that much more enjoyable.

We’ve all heard the opinion espoused by Fantasy Baseball Owners everywhere: No championships are won on Draft Day. However, whether you agree with that or not, most titles ARE won in April. Too many of us put in a ton of work preparing for the Fantasy Baseball Draft only to make the fatal mistake of ignoring our squads during the season’s first few weeks. Don’t be one of those guys.

Every year, even in the deepest of leagues, there are Major League Baseball players on the verge of a Fantasy Breakout season that go undrafted. Last season, alone, Miguel Montero and David Aardsma were just two who were integral parts of many Fantasy League championships despite being left unselected on draft day. The key for you, as an owner, is to identify those hidden gems as early as possible and incorporate them into your daily lineup.

That’s only half the battle, however, as t is just as critical to cut ties with drafted players not performing up to expectations. Daily perusal of the box scores and injury reports is the first step in this process; followed by the much more difficult one that forces you to admit you may have been wrong about a player. Once the draft is over, forget preferences and simply evaluate performance.

Kansas City’s Gil Meche may be back as early as Sunday if a mid-week bullpen session goes painlessly. However, he’s still just an AL-only option at this point… In Baltimore, Miguel Tejada’s Opening Day home in the cleanup spot may not be permanent. Make note of his 3B eligibility after 20 games… Do not be swayed by reports from Los Angeles that long time prospect Brandon Wood is finally ready to produce. He looked lost during the first two games of the Minnesota series and may simply be a 4A player… Angel’s LHP Scott Kazmir (right) is on course to start his first game next week vs. the Yankees…OF Alex Rios’ strong camp and first week have many White Sox teammates expecting big things. Fantasy Owners, however, will remember two straight disastrous seasons before jumping on his bandwagon… While Jon Rauch has been given the closer job in Minnesota, don’t forget that he struggled in the same role as a National and failed to emerge as the stopper in Arizona despite a muddled bullpen situation. Matt Guerrier is the Twins’ best reliever and one whom Ron Gardenhire won’t hesitate to call should Rauch falter… Oakland’s Trevor Cahill has been hampered by a sore shoulder since last September and saw the pain worsen this spring…With the release of Jack Cust, the A’s turned their backup C and DH roles over to Jake Fox. Given the injury history of current DH Eric Chavez, Fox, already eligible at  OF and 3B, could be a nice stash in an AL-only league…In Seattle, C Rob Johnson says he’s healthy after three, off-season surgeries to alleviate hip and wrist problems. The long time prospect and new starting backstop drilled an Opening Day HR… If Jays’ 3B Edwin Encarnacion has his usual slow start, look for Toronto to hand the job to rookie Brett Wallace…Rangers’ 2B Ian Kinsler is eligible to return from an ankle sprain on Saturday but looks like he’ll be out awhile longer… Be wary of owning Marlins’ starting pitchers as their defense, especially on the infield, seems like a baseball version of slapstick comedy… Franklin Morales may hold on to the Rockies’ closer job for longer than expected as Huston Street made the dreaded visit to Dr. James Andrews this week regarding his sore right shoulder… Astros’ 1B Lance Berkman has had his knee drained five times but is still hampered by swelling. He’s on the DL with no date set for his return… Erik Bedard is said to be ahead of schedule in his recovery from shoulder surgery and could be back in the Seattle rotation as early as June.

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes

Buy Low

- As a full time DH, Vladimir Guerrero is more likely to remain healthy in 2010. If so, he’ll get a huge boost from hitting in the middle of the powerful Rangers’ lineup… San Diego’s Kyle Blanks, whose 10 HR last season came in just 148 AB, posted a .407 BA this spring and landed the cleanup spot behind Adrian Gonzalez.

Sell High

- Can’t understand how smart Fantasy guys continue to draft Cubs’ RHP Carlos Zambrano (right).  He’s still out of shape, (despite losing fifteen pounds), has seen a three year drop in dominance and battles emotional instability. Talk up his weight loss and dump him on anybody who didn’t notice he got shelled on Opening Day… Toronto’s Jason Frasor, who inherited the closer’s role by default in ’09 when Scott Downs was injured, blew the save in Monday’s opener vs. Texas.  Don’t expect Cito Gaston to be patient with him, especially with Kevin Gregg and a healthy Downs on the roster.

Grab Bag

- Twins’ OF Delmon Young had a strong camp and opened the season with a HR vs. the Angels. Don’t forget that, despite his struggles since arriving in Minnesota, he does have a 90+ RBI season already on his resume…Reds’ 3B Scott Rolen had a terrific ’09, hitting .305 while splitting time between Toronto and Cincinnati. While he is always an injury risk, he’s in a great hitter’s park and looks very strong.

Drop Zone

- RHP Jake Westbrook threw four wild pitches in Cleveland’s opener. Lack of command is the biggest obstacle for a pitcher coming back from shoulder surgery; something Westbrook has yet to overcome. He should not be on your roster even in an AL-only format… The catching situation in Colorado’ with Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo splitting time equally, devalues each of the platoon mates. Avoid both… If Jays’ 3B Edwin Encarnacion has his usual slow start, look for Toronto to hand the job to rookie Brett Wallace…

If you’re a succesful Fantasy Baseball player, you know that it’s nearly impossible to finish near the top of the standings without having power at the corners. Unless you’ve secured significant pop at both First Base and Third Base, it’s a good bet you’ll be one of the first in your league looking to make a trade.

A quick glance at the top of your 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft sheets should reveal quite an imbalance between the two slots. You’ll probably have as many as twelve first tier options and a number of second and third tier guys capable of giving you 20+ HR and 90+ RBI. At third base, however, the pickins’ grow slim. There are but five top tier selections to be made; six if you’re confident that David Wright can bounce back in CitiField. As the talent at the Hot Corner begins to thin, you’ll find yourself scrambling to find adequate options. Good luck.

The solution? Well, even though Moonlight’s First Commandment tells us to never, ever draft for position in the first few rounds, it might be wise to grab an elite third sacker early as long as his stats are not dwarfed by another available player.

Stars

At First Base, we all know the cream of the crop, as Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira should all be gone by the middle of the second round. There is a group of studs, however, who fall to the fourth round and beyond in most mocks that may actually return more value than the aforementioned stars, if only that they’ll be selected so much later. Give a long look to Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Derek Lee and Adam Dunn. Across the diamond, Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds lead the pack. Reynolds and Sandoval might also be eligible at 1B in your league but you’d be silly to use them in that slot.

Sleepers

Take advantage of your last opportunity to grab Billy Butler and Joey Votto in any round after the second. These two young superstars will rocket to the top of the rankings in 2011. Gordon Beckham is a star on the rise for the White Sox who’ll be at 2B this year but still carry 3B eligibility. In Oakland, Kevin Kouzmanoff is happy to be away from pitcher friendly Petco Park, where he somehow managed 18 HR and 88 RBI.

Slippers

You won’t find Moonlight among those that think David Wright’s stats will return to their old levels. He’s still a star, but 20 HR, and not 30, may be the max in his new home. Lance Berkman had minor knee surgery last weekend and will miss two to four weeks. His numbers slipped badly last year and the Astros have a lot of talent in the Minors.

Stiffs

Both of our stiffs are getting their mail in Seattle these days. At 1B, Casey Kotchman doesn’t have nearly enough pop to be considered and should go undrafted in a mixed league while 3B Chone Figgins will have you scrambling to make up HR and RBI all year. Avoid both.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten Fantasy Corner Infielders

Albert Pujols                                                 Alex Rodriguez

Prince Fielder                                                Evan Longoria

Mark Teixeira                                                Mark Reynolds

Miguel Cabrera                                              Ryan Zimmerman

Ryan Howard                                                David Wright

Billy Butler                                                    Pablo Sandoval

Justin Morneau                                             Kevin Youkilis

Joey Votto                                                   Aramis Ramirez

Derek Lee                                                     Chipper Jones

Adrian Gonzalez                                         Gordon Beckham

by Moonlight Graham

Think back to last year’s Fantasy Baseball Draft when you sat at the table clicking your heels, hoping for Geovany Soto to get through to the round in which you had him slotted.  Coming off a season so stellar that he garnered the Rookie of the Year award, Soto was even more enticing to Fantasy Baseball owners because his 23 HR and 86 RBI came from behind the plate; traditionally the weakest Fantasy spot.  But like many before him, (remember Rick Wilkins?), Soto failed to build on his initial success.  Instead of the 30-100 season many expected, his was an injury riddled exercise in disappointment.

Unfortunately, offensive inconsistency behind the dish is an annual pitfall for Fantasy Baseball players.  Two years ago, Jorge Posada was a Moonlight selection primarily because, as I said at the time, “the guy plays every day.”  Almost as soon as I said that, Posada suffered the first major injury of his career and was lost for the season.  However, the undrafted Kelly Shoppach came from nowhere to post 21 HR and help my march to a title.  In the same season, many owners saw their chances go up in flames as Victor Martinez struggled while Chris Snyder supplied 16 HR from the waiver wire.  Even last year, Miguel Montero’s breakthrough campaign threw a lifeline to a number of Soto’s victims.  Starting to recognize a pattern?  Try not to get sucked in by the next “great” catcher and, instead, identify a few consistent producers who’ll come cheap but won’t blow up your season.

Chief among these candidates is the Angels’ Mike Napoli, an annual member of Moonlight’s Master Batters in the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie Baseball League.  Despite semi-splitting time in the Angels’ lineup with the offensively challenged Jeff Mathis, Napoli has posted back to back 20 HR seasons.  He’s a .270 hitter with a catcher-friendly .350 OBP whose name will rarely be called before the 15th round of any mixed draft.  He’ll even throw in 4 or 5 SB for good measure.  His stats may not be as sexy as Martinez, Martin or McCann, but he’ll deliver what you expect at about a third of the price.

2010 Catcher Ratings

Stud- Joe Mauer’s ridiculous MVP season was so good, it eliminates anyone else for consideration in this category.

Stars- Look for Matt Wieters to build on his scorching September, Victor Martinez is more attractive because of his First Base eligibility and Brian McCann is Atlanta’s best hitter.

Sleepers- Kurt Suzuki had a terrific season that went largely unnoticed while Miguel Montero looks for an even bigger season now that the D’Backs job is his alone.

Slippers- Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo will vie for the starting job in Colorado; a competition that will cost each of them AB.

Stiffs- Rod Barajas’ 19 HR were overshadowed by an abysmal .258 OBP.  His HR will disappear at CitiField.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten

Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Matt Wieters
Brian McCann
Kurt Suzuki
Miguel Montero
Mike Napoli
Jorge Posada
Russell Martin
Bengie Molina

Beware the Young Studs

So, you’re beginning to prepare for your Fantasy Baseball Draft and the annual dilemma of when to start assembling your pitching staff rears its ugly head. “Can I really let Tim Lincecum get past my early, second round pick?”  “If Johan Santana falls to the fourth round, is he worth the risk?” And, finally, “When do I look to grab one of the young guns that could put my staff over the top?”  Well, to answer the first two, Lincecum would be a tough pass at that point in any Fantasy Baseball Draft and Johan is a steal if he drops to the fourth round.  As for the third question, there’s a little more to consider than potential.

In The Sporting News 2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview, Brad Pinkerton wrote a terrific piece on young pitchers titled, Folding Aces.  In it, he analyzed the performance of these rising stars in the season after their stellar debuts.  He presented a formula for targeting those young hurlers that could reasonably be expected to turn up on the disabled list or suffer a disappointing campaign.  He had my interest when he presented those hurlers that violated his criteria in 2007.  Ian Kennedy, Dustin McGowan, Fausto Carmona, and Yovani Gallardo all turned out to be disappointing selections for Fantasy Baseball owners in 2008.  His ’09 list was equally clairvoyant, as Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Manny Parra (above) either underperformed or landed on the DL.  So, what are these criteria and who’s on the list for 2010?

Pinkerton looked for pitchers 25 and younger who experienced a jump of 30 innings pitched over their previous career high in pro ball. Next, he eliminated any who’d registered 200 IP in any Major League season or had exceeded 35 career starts. What was left was a roster of hurlers with the potential to destroy your season.  Now, it’s not a perfect indicator,as evidenced by the ’09 performance of Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw.  What it does tell you, though, is that you’re running a big risk if you take more than one of the following guys:

Max Scherzer
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Wade Davis
Joba Chamberlain
Mat Latos
Trevor Cahill
Ricky Romero
Marc Rzepczynski
Derek Holland

Moonlight Graham’s Top 20 Pitchers

Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
C.C. Sabathia
Zack Greinke
Felix Hernandez
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
Dan Haren
Javier Vasquez
Chris Carpenter
Josh Beckett
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
John Lackey
Jon Lester
Tommy Hanson
Jair Jurrjens
Matt Cain

In the Hausier’s Krowedum Fantasy Baseball League, as well as many Dynasty, or Keeper, leagues across the country, Minor Leaguers can play an important role.  Drafting and holding on to prospects that are close to making contributions on the Major League level is a great way to supplement your Fantasy Baseball roster and increase your chances for a championship. If you don’t draft Minor Leaguers, it’s still worth a look, as some are good enough to warrant selection in a regular Fantasy Baseball Draft. What follows is a list of Moonlight’s Top Ten prospects for 2010; players who have yet to play in the majors ranked as much for their chances to see significant time in the big leagues this year as for their talent.  Good luck. Just twenty one days ’til pitchers and catchers!

1) Stephen Strasburg RHP (Nationals-AFL) As a senior at San Diego State, Strasburg had a 13-1 record that featured a 1.95 ERA and 195 K in 109 IP.  He and his 100 MPH fastball could be in Nats’ rotation without ever having played in the Minors. He was 4-1 as he made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League.

2) Chris Carter 1B (Athletics-AAA) His OBP of .422 is enough to make GM Billy Beane swoon.  He also clouted 32 HR and 115 RBI while batting .329.  AL Rookie of the Year candidate will probably start the year in Oakland.

3) Carlos Santana C (Indians-AA) His power numbers are sterling enough for a backstop,(22 HR 93 RBI), but what sets him apart from the pack is the 90 runs he scored and his .413 OBP; unheard of for players at his position. The Indians traded both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach to clear room for him so; he may be the Tribe’s starter on Opening Day.

4) Jason Heyward OF (Braves-AAA) In just 99 games, Heyward, Atlanta’s top prospect, hit .323 with 17 HR and 63 RBI.  Throw in 25 doubles, a few of which will become dingers as he matures, and you can see why the Bravos are so hot for him.

5) Pedro Alvarez 3B (Pirates-AA) Biggest obstacle facing the top overall pick from ’08 may be the Pirates tight checkbook.  Keeping his arbitration clock from starting would be the only reason to keep Alvarez in the Minors to start the season. He turned in a solid pro debut last year, (.288-27-95) and is better than any of the Bucs’ alternatives.

6) Travis Wood LHP (Reds-AAA) Tough to draft a rookie pitcher who’ll call the Great American Ballpark his home, but Wood’s got the stuff. 13-5 at AAA last year with a miniscule 1.777 ERA and 1.04 WHIP; he knows how to pitch.

7) Jeremy Hellickson RHP (Rays-AAA) This far down the list only because the Rays are, historically, patient to a fault with their young hurlers.  However, it’ll be hard to keep his K Rate, (10.4/9IP), or his ungodly WHIP, (0.94) in the Minors for long.  Future ace.

8 ) Michael Taylor OF (Athletics-AAA) A 20-20 prospect that Billy Beane plucked from the Jays for Brett Wallace.  Another high OBP guy, (.395), Taylor might find a spot with the rebuilding A’s

9)Brett Wallace 3B (Blue Jays-AAA)Wallace was the key guy shipped from the Cardinals to the A’s in the Matt Holliday trade and was then sent to Toronto over the winter.  He’s got a solid bat, (.293 BA 20 HR), and has only to beat Edwin Encarnacion and/or Lyle Overbay for AB at either corner spot.

10) Drew Locke 1B (Astros-AA) Posted a ledger of .338-20-109 in just 129 games last year.  At first glance, blocked at 1B by Lance Berkman, but Houston could always move Lance back to the outfield if Locke continues to mash.

Got a call the other day from Jack Sullivan, proprietor of The Big Steins in the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie League and proud owner of the second and sixth picks in the upcoming HKRL Fantasy Baseball Draft.  Jack had just started his draft prep by going over a few mock drafts and Top 100 lists.  He was surprised to find Joe Mauer listed no higher than 12th on any of the material he was studying and had a question for me. “Now, with the second pick, Hanley Ramirez is a no-brainer. But, with the sixth pick, I want Joe Mauer.”  “The list I’m looking at has him listed 12th but I’m not sure he even lasts until number 6.  Am I crazy?”

Well, Jackson, one could make the argument that, in fact, you are; especially after your tragic decision to waive Jason Kubel just a day after last year’s draft.  But, in this case, you’re right on the mark with Kubel’s teammate, the great Joe Mauer.  As a matter of fact, the rationale behind your first pick confirms Mauer as worthy of a mid-first round choice.

In most drafts, Albert Pujols is the logical first choice.  Ramirez usually goes second, not so much because his statistics are markedly better than alternative choices such as Ryan Braun or Alex Rodriguez but due to the fact that he produces at their level while playing a very thin position.  Think about what your roster would look like were you to pick Braun.  You’d have a stud outfielder but would now be forced to dip down into the shortstop pool later on; let’s say to the 10th round where both Jason Bartlett and outfielder Nelson Cruz will be available.  Your team is obviously stronger with Ramirez and Cruz than with Braun and Bartlett.

The same logic must be applied to Mauer.  He’s a three time batting champ and the reigning MVP who, by the way, became a stud power hitter last year while batting .370.  Those stats put him in the first round no matter what his position.  That his is actually the weakest of all, you absolutely cannot afford to turn down his kind of production at that spot.  So, do you think you’re better off with Mauer and Joey Votto in the fifth round or with Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann?  Looks like an easy decision, Jack.  Good luck.