By Eddie Mayrose

Ranking  quarterbacks for a Fantasy Football Draft isn’t exactly rocket science.   Drew Brees, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers are the top three, followed closely by Tom Brady and Matt Schaub.  Easy stuff, actually, and pretty much universal.  Rating the next five becomes a little dicey, however, as you’ll get very different opinions from Fantasy Football Owners as to which signal callers warrant these spots.  The vast differences of opinion create the potential for selections that will make or break a Fantasy Football Season.  For Professor Wagstaff’s money, the one man in that second five with the best chance of producing on the same level as the top tier is the Ravens’ Joe Flacco.

In 2008, Flacco, then a rookie out of Delaware, led the Ravens to the AFC Championship game; mostly by managing an offensive system that had been scaled down significantly in order to limit his mistakes.  The handcuffs came off last year and Flacco owners benefited from an increase in his production although, Baltimore’s less than stellar wideouts limited the bump in Fantasy points.

This season, however, Flacco could be directing an offensive juggernaut; something Ravens’ fans have never seen before, even during their Super Bowl season.  WR Mark Clayton, last year’s go-to guy, is now the third option after the acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and Donte’ Stallworth while RB Ray Rice has become a first rounder in most Fantasy Football drafts due to his status as the NFL’s best receiver out of the backfield.  With the supporting cast now at Flacco’s disposal, he need only to continue the improvement he’s already shown to be that middle round pick you’ll point to when recounting how you managed to win your league in 2010.

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 20 Quarterbacks

1) Drew Brees
2) Peyton Manning
3) Matt Schaub
4) Tom Brady
5) Aaron Rodgers
6) Joe Flacco
7) Tony Romo
8 )Donovan McNabb
9) Carson Palmer
10)Matt Ryan
11)Philip Rivers
12)Brett Favre
13)Jay Cutler
14)Eli Manning
15)Kevin Kolb
16)Matt Cassell
17)Jason Campbell
18)Matt Hasselbeck
19)Matt Stafford
20)Kyle Orton

Things went better than expected last week for the star of Ryno Rife Sports Handicappers.  He may not have won any money, but he did manage to break even on this season’s first venture into the world of pro football.  Gil, having assured us he’d confer with his wife, Jill, returns this week to give his two cents on who we might be watching two weeks from now in Super Bowl XLIV.

New Orleans -3 1/2 over Minnesota- When you take away the obligatory three points usually granted a home team, this one looks too close to call.  Both teams dominated their first round opponents after stumbling through the month of December.  I’m going with New Orleans here because I’m buying into Reggie Bush.  His performance last week brought back memories of his Heisman days at USC and served to make Drew Brees and his receivers that much more dangerous.  Strangely, he could be the best runner in the game as Brett Favre’s “me first” attitude has neutralized Adrian Peterson over the last two months.  Who’d a thunk AP would go eight weeks without a 100 yard game?  Look for New Orleans to go up early and then feast on Favre as he starts slinging the ball to anyone on the field.

New York + 7 1/2 over Indianapolis- How can I jump off the Rex Ryan bandwagon now?  This oversized Pied Piper has convinced players and fans alike that his team belongs in the Super Bowl.  As with San Diego, Gang Green matches up with an offense that can’t run the ball effectively and will have to deal with the loss of its best receiver; courtesy of Darrelle Revis.  Unlike San Diego, however, the Jets will have difficulty getting their different defensive packages on the field because of the Colts’ no huddle offense.  Then there’s the small problem of stopping Peyton Manning.  I agree with the many that see this contest as a close one so, I expect Indy to come out on top.  I mean, really, who picks against Manning in a close game?  That said, I think 7 1/2 points is too wide a margin.

Enjoy the games.

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Fantasy Football News and Notes
We all know how much Terrell Owens‘ attitude can cause in the clubhouse.  We’ve seen it in San Fran, Philly and Dallas already.  And, given time, it’ll happen in Buffalo.  That said, shame on the Bills’ beat writers for trying to goad Owens into blasting the team’s game plan…Bad day in San Diego for the Professor’s favorite NFL’er, Chad Pennington, as he seriously injured his throwing shoulder for the third (and possibly last) time.  If his career is truly over, he’ll be remembered as a great teammate, leader and winner.  Say what you want about his soft-tossing style but give him his due.  When healthy, he always won, never more impressively than last year when he guided Miami to the biggest turnaround in league history… Can someone explain how San Francisco allowed any receivers to get behind them on that last play in Minnesota?…  As if things weren’t already bad enough in Oakland, assistant coach Randy Hanson has now detailed for authorities how his jaw was broken by head coach Tom Cable; something he previously denied…Mike Shanahan’s name has already begun to surface as a possible replacement for embattled Redskins’ coach, Jim Zorn…Tell me again how the Giants are going to regret not signing a big name replacement for Plaxico Burress… Looks like Fantasy Owners that drafted Michael Crabtree as a late round flier won’t be getting much in return this year as both sides refuse to budge in contract talks… With Dwight Freeney out 2-3 weeks, the Colts already shorthanded defense may face struggles it can’t overcome.

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Fantasy Football Stars- Love 49’ers TE Vernon Davis vs. St. Louis, especially after his 2 TD performance last week.  He’s become San Fran’s #1 option through the air; a far cry from being banished from the bench in coach Mike Singletary’s first game… Carson Palmer should be 3-0 but for the fluky, last play that gave Denver a win in Cincy in the opener.  Palmer is fresh off a victory over the Super Bowl champs and starting to click with his receivers.  Bad news for the atrocious Cleveland Browns… Giants’ RB Brandon Jacobs should have one of his best games of the season this week in KC.  The Chiefs can’t stop anyone.

Fantasy Football Stiffs- Raiders QB JeMarcus Russell is fat, out of shape, confused and a victim of the disarray so much a part of Al Davis’ organization…  Al Davis doesn’t own the Buccaneers.  After that, the same adjectives apply to Byron Leftwich… We’ll save space here and list the Cleveland Browns as a unit.  From the head coach on down, this team is a train wreck whose players you can’t afford to use.  How do you like Mangini now, Cleveland?

Fantasy Football Sleepers- With Marion Barber and Felix Jones banged up, RB Tashard Choice becomes just that in Dallas.  He was very impressive in his Monday Night cameo… Minnesota WR Percy Harvin is becoming a regular on this list.  Not only has he quickly emerged as Brett Favre’s favorite target, he’s now added special teams prowess to his resume…  Since Peyton Manning lost Anthony Gonzalez as his second receiver, he’s made do, quite nicely, with WR Pierre Garcon, who’s had a long TD grab in each of the last two games.

Fantasy Football Slippers- One thing Cardinals’ RB Tim Hightower had going for him was that 1st round pick, Beanie Wells, was having trouble hanging on to the ball.  That is, until Hightower coughed it up himself last week.  Look for Arizona to use its bye week to make Wells a more viable part of the attack and take carries from Hightower… Bills’ WR Terrell Owens had no catches last week for the first time in 185 games.  That won’t happen Sunday in Miami but he and Trent Edwards are clearly not in sync… Lost in the euphoria of the Jets’ perfect record is the struggling RB Thomas Jones. In New York’s victory over Tennessee, he carried just 14 times for  20 yards.  Jones has struggled for most of the season, his strong second half vs. Houston the lone bright spot.

BYE WEEK- Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia

Week Two saw the Shortbus Samurai Warriors run away from the rest of the McGee Survivor League in much the same way their RB, Chris Johnson, ran away from the Houston Texans.  Johnson was just what Dr. Pete ordered to stave off the elimination that was eventually suffered by the beautiful Jen G. who can turn the world on with her smile.  Unfortunately, she had a nothing day and was unable to make it all seem worthwhile.   It’s possible that she angered the gods of the Twin Cities in her failure to support the Twins superstar, Jason Kubel.  Well, it’s off to Roll-n-Roaster for Team Minnesota as the rest of the McGees head into Week Three.

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Fantasy Football’s Best Player

Don’t know if we need some kind of ceremony to mark a changing of the guard but Drew Brees is now, unquestionably, the best QB in the NFL.  After watching Tom Brady struggle for most of the Pats’ opener vs. Buffalo and then look totally flustered against the Jets, it’s obvious that he’s still shaking off the rust from last year. Brees now has 9 TD passes and more than 600 YDS through the first two weeks… So far, the Jets have been true to their word that they’ll get Leon Washington as many as 15 touches a game.  Not great news for Thomas Jones owners… Have to be concerned over what’s preventing Tony Romo and Roy Williams from getting on the same page in Dallas… Despite QB Kurt Warner’s sensational performance vs. Jacksonville, (24-26, 243 YDS, 2 TD), WR Anquan Boldin once again failed to establish himself.  Makes you wonder if his acrimonious contract negotiations have the Cards phasing him out of the offense as they prepare for life without him… You’d think that with two rookie WRs, TE Zach Miller would have significant value in the Raiders’ attack.  But, with QB JeMarcus Russell as likely to stink out the joint as not, even Miller is too risky a play…Don’t count RB Willis McGahee out of the Ravens’ game plan just yet. In Baltimore’s victory over San Diego, McGahee was the man at the goal line.

Week Three Projections

Fantasy Football Stars- Texans’ QB Matt Schaub lit up the Titans last week with 4 TD and 300 YDS. He’ll be facing a Jaguars’ DST that was shredded by Kurt Warner last week… Look for Giants’ WR Mario Manningham to be Eli Manning’s favorite target in Tampa off of his huge night in Dallas last week… Miami’s Ronnie Brown gave evidence on Monday night that he is one of the more underappreciated stars in the league with 136 YDS and 2 TD.  With the 0-2 Dolphins desperate for a win, they’ll put the ball in his hands.

Fantasy Football Stiffs- At first glance, Redskins QB Jason Campbell had a solid Week 2 vs. St. Louis.  However, when you realize he didn’t throw a TD pass against a terrible St. Louis squad, you have to worry about his production… Bucs’ WR Antonio Bryant missed last week’s game vs. Buffalo and his status is uncertain for this week’s game against the Giants.

Fantasy Football Sleepers- If Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck can’t go, look for the Seahawks to rely on RB Julius Jones with Seneca Wallace under center… It looks like Brett Favre has found his favorite receiver and it’s Percy Harvin. The Vikings’ rookie has a TD in each of his first two games…

Fantasy Football Slippers- New England’s Wes Welker pops up on this list based on the uncertainty of his injury status. Given Bellichick’s history of not disclosing injuries, (How surprised were you that Welker was out last week?), you can’t take a chance with Welker until game time…Don’t get sucked in by Eagles QB Kevin Kolb.  His 391 YDS vs. New Orleans was a nice surprise filling in for Donovan McNabb but two things should make you stay away. First, Donovan McNabb could return any time and, second, the Saints were up by so much throughout the game, Kolb threw way more than expected…Tampa Bay QB Byron Leftwich has had two solid weeks against Buffalo and Dallas but now must face the Giants; whose defense is a significant step above both.

Wagstaff Still Alive (Barely)

The first week of the McGee Survivor League went almost precisely as the Professor expected as both girls, Team Minnesota and S.F. Col’s Guys finished atop the point standings by wide margins. The only prediction that went awry was that I actually survived the first week; much to my surprise. I did, however, manage to finish in the bottom three as my own “Wide Receivers before Running Backs” draft strategy blew up in my face. Could someone in Houston please inform Andre Johnson that the season has actually started? We said good bye to Team Lunz, as our nephew and cousin, Jim, failed to get out of the starting blocks. One down, twelve to go.

No Defense for the Defense

It was an interesting Week 1 as far as DST’s were concerned. No sooner than four teams considered to have solid defenses lost one of their top players for a large chunk, if not all, of the season. Troy Palumalo (Steelers) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) could each be out for as long as six weeks with knee injuries while Brian Urlacher (Bears/wrist) and Joe Blow (Jaguars/knee) have been lost for the season. Keep them in mind as you set your lineup this weekend.

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Fantasy Football Stars

Based on how well the Bucs ran the ball against the Cowboys last weekend, RB Brandon Jacobs should have a big night in Dallas; especially with Eli Manning still adjusting to life without Plaxico Burress… Atlanta’s RB Michael Turner should start to justify that #2 pick you spent to get him with a big game against a weak Panthers’ D Line… Speaking of weak lines, the Rams may own the worst in the league on each side of the ball. That’s why we love Skins’ RB Clinton Portis to run all over them and the Redskins’ DST to completely dominate.

Fantasy Football Stiffs

Could things be worse for QB Jay Cutler? His Chicago debut was marred by four INT in a loss to Green Bay, and now he faces the Super Bowl champs in the home opener. If the Steelers shut down the run, (when don’t they?), Cutler could be good for another couple of picks… If Jake Delhomme doesn’t have a solid first half against Atlanta, the Panthers’ QB may find himself on the bench. Based on their performance vs. Miami, the Falcons don’t figure to allow DeAngelo Williams a lot of freedom, putting even more pressure on Delhomme to come up big… If you hadn’t figured they’d be here based on our Stars report, we give you the Rams’ DST… A solid Vikings’ defense and the Lions propensity for falling behind make RB Kevin Smith a huge risk this week.

Fantasy Football Sleepers

Last year, the Cardinals allowed more TD passes than they threw and were a disaster on the road. That’s why the Professor moved QB David Garrard into his starting lineup this week… With the Jets shooting their mouths off this week, you have to figure they’ll focus a lot of their attention on New England’s Randy Moss; which should allow WR Wes Welker to have a big game… The Vikings should have no trouble throwing the ball against the Lions, who allowed 6 TD passes vs. Drew Brees in New Orleans last week. Look for TE Visanthe Shiancoe to reel in a TD from Brett Favre among his 8 REC… All of a sudden, the Ravens seem to have taken the shackles off of QB Joe Flacco, who threw for 300 YDS last Sunday. He’ll have another big game vs. San Diego…

Fantasy Football Slippers-

Bears’ RB Matt Forte will struggle vs. the Steelers; especially if Jay Cutler turns in another stinker… Have to be worried about Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers. He may be without LaDainian Tomlinson and two of his offensive linemen with the vaunted Ravens’ defense coming to town… I know you used a pretty high pick on Rams’ RB Stephen Jackson but it may be time to move him. The Rams look terrible, especially the O Line, and Jackson will struggle all year… Did you pick up Jets’ QB Mark Sanchez this week? Good. Now, wait at least another week to put him in your lineup as Pats’ coach Bill Bellichick will make life difficult for the rookie on Sunday.

]]> http://fantasysportsdirt.com/271/professor-wagstaff%e2%80%99s-fantasy-football-week-two/feed/ 0 http://fantasysportsdirt.com/171/fantasy-football-draft-preview-quarterbacks/ http://fantasysportsdirt.com/171/fantasy-football-draft-preview-quarterbacks/#comments Tue, 11 Aug 2009 03:44:06 +0000 Professor Wagstaff http://fantasysportsdirt.com/?p=171 by Professor Wagstaff

It was a slippery slope in 2008 for owners who decided to grab a signal caller with the first pick of their Fantasy Football Draft.  Tom Brady didn’t make it out of the first quarter of the first game and Peyton Manning struggled early before settling into a productive yet un-Peyton like campaign.  Tony Romo, rated third on most boards, also failed to deliver equal value while Carson Palmer was terrible before going down for the season.  Drew Brees, an early second rounder, was the leagues most productive QB  while late draftees like Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub were super sleepers.  And who among us could’ve seen Matt Cassel coming down the road.  So, what did all of these surprises teach us?

Well, if nothing else, it’s probably not as good idea to grab a QB in the Top five of the first round.  Consider only the most elite options with your first pick and, if none fall to you, be patient enough to wait into the middle rounds.  Your squad is will be significantly better with a stud RB and a second tier QB than the other way around.  The trick is to separate the studs from the stiffs and then, as always, trust your judgment.  How to accomplish this tricky little feat?  Read on, my Fantasy Football brethren, as Waggie’s here to help.

Fantasy Football Draft Picks for QB

Studs

Will the Saints’ Drew Brees reach the 5,000 YDS mark in passing again?  Probably not.  But, 4,500 is likely, as is his 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio.  And, if Reggie Bush and Marques Colston can suit up for all 16 games, he’ll have a stronger arsenal… Sometimes, we Fantasy Football players get so caught up with our analysis that we can’t see the forest for the trees.  Such was the case last year, when Peyton Manning missed most of Indy’s  training camp.  We should have seen his sub par September coming but were blinded by the reputation.  Well, Peyton’s been in camp since Day 1 this year and his stats will reflect that.  Bank on a return to 4, 200 YDS and 35 TD… Remember how happy you were last year when New England’s Tom Brady fell to you in the first round?  That euphoria lasted about ten minutes into the season, as Brady went down with a knee.  Expect elite numbers from him this year as he and Randy Moss reunite but don’t buy into the “ahead of schedule” reports coming out of camp.  Keep in mind he had not one procedure but two; the second because his recovery from the first was going too slowly.

Stars

Have to love that San Diego’s Philip Rivers will spend almost half a season facing terrible defenses in the AFC West.  He’ll also have LaDainian Tomlinson at full strength from the get go.  4,000 YDS and 30 TD look like a lock… In Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers showed the league why the Pack let Brett Favre walk.  It had been four years since he’d done anything but hold a clipboard and he still posted 4,000 YDS and 28 TD while running for four more TD.  He’ll be even more comfortable this year, which will allow him to boost all of these numbers… Turns out, it didn’t take the Falcons all that long to recover from the Michael Vick debacle.  One draft was all it took, as Matt Ryan settled in as the Falcons’ starter and led them to the playoffs.  He had some help, of course, in Michael Turner and Roddy White and will get more for ’09 in TE Tony Gonzalez.  His 3,440 YDS and 16 TD will probably serve as career lows for this rising star.

Sleepers

Houston’s Matt Schaub burst on to the scene in a big way last year, throwing for 3,000YDS and 15 TD in just 11 games.  A full season with Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter could easily add 1,200 YDS to that total and bump the TD up to 25…  In Cincy, Carson Palmer is coming back from an injury riddled season while dealing with the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Laveranues Coles may fill that gap, leaving it to Palmer to reestablish the former Chad Johnson as a threat.  The bet here is that he does…    Miami’s Chad Pennington may not have the best fastball in the game but he’s a proven winner and one of the game’s most accurate passes.   Given that he’ll go in the last few rounds, if at all, a repeat of last year’s 19 TD and 3,600 YDS make him a steal.

Slippers

That I don’t believe Arizona’s Kurt Warner can sustain last year’s success is not the issue.  That he’ll be taken in a position that will likely require improvement over last year’s stats to justify the price is what should concern you…  Now we’ll find out just how much Terrell Owens had to do with  Tony Romo’s success in Dallas.  Even in a disapointing ’08 he had 3,400 YDS and 26 TD.  Romo is still a viable option at QB but don’t reach…  The move to Chicago’s Soldier Field, the lack of a proven receiver on the Bears’ roster will negatively impact  Jay Cutler, a QB who’ll go higher than he should based on reputation.

Stiffs

Even in a season that saw great team success, Tennessee’s Kerry Collins posted very pedestrian Fantasy numbers.  Don’t like his age or the fact that the Titans rely so heavily on the run…  With the Raiders’ organization in such disarray, we mwy never know if  JaMarcus Russell could have been a great QB.  The athleticism he showed at LSU says yes.  The talent surrounding him in Oakland says no…  Buffalo’s  Trent Edwards already had enough pressure on him coming off a sub par season in a tough division.  Then the Bills brought in Terrell Owens.  If Edwards has two bad games in a row, a good bet, Owens will be all over him and the wheels will come off.

Fantasy Football Picks

Professor Wagstaff’s Top 20 Quarterbacks

1. Drew Brees
2. Peyton Manning
3. Tom Brady
4. Philip Rivers
5. Aaron Rodgers
6. Matt Ryan
7. Matt Schaub
8. Tony Romo
9. Donovan McNabb
10. Kurt Warner
11. Carson Palmer
12. Jay Cutler
13. Eli Manning
14. Ben Roethlisberger
15. Jake Delhomme
16. Chad Pennington
17. Jason Campbell
18. Matt Hasselbeck
19. Joe Flacco
20. Shaun Hill