Here we are, two days before the end of the world.  According to the Mayans, those fun-loving Guatemalans whose civilization, some time around 900 A.D., simply vanished, December 21, 2012 will bring the curtain down on mankind’s Broadway run.

Now, I have to admit, the Mayan credibility takes a bit of a hit when you realize they probably thought they’d see the final performance; only to fall one or eleven centuries short.  But, once Hollywood made the movie, I figured it had to be true.

Therefore, I’ve abandoned my plans for, what now seems, unnecessary Christmas shopping and begun to get things in order. I don’t know if I’ll need a bag, but I’ve packed one, anyway.  And, yes, I’ve included some warm weather apparel because, well, I might need it.  Yet, as the date approaches, I find myself excited by the prospect of, finally, having some questions answered by the Big Guy.  You know, those things in a lifetime that, no matter how much time passes, always make you wonder.  Having no idea how much time I’ll have alone with Him, I decided it would be prudent to knock my list down to ten, so as to focus on the really, really important stuff.  Who knows?  Maybe He watches Letterman, too.

So, submitted for your approval and as the last column with which I’ll bore you, (you hope), here are the Top Ten questions I’d like to ask God.

10) Tell the truth. You hated the Designated Hitter, didn’t You?

"I don't do miracles anymore. My last miracle was the '69 Mets."

9 ) Of all the actors that have portrayed You on stage and screen, who’s Your favorite? Mine is George Burns.

8 ) Was there some kind of deal made for the ’69 Mets to win the World Series?  I mean, when you look at it, we’ve been through an awful lot since that Impossible Dream season. Payback?  Over the last four decades, we’ve traded away Hall of Famers, MVP and CY Young winners while, for the most part, languishing at or near the bottom of the NL East. Yes, I know there was ’86, but I really think that was us against the Curse of the Bambino and You had to make a choice.  I guess even You have to like New York more than Boston.  And, as long as we’re on the subject, what did Jason Bay do to piss You off?

7 ) How could the Wonder Years end without Kevin and Winnie getting married?  Seriously, the show ran for six years. After all that time, the illusion had to be destroyed in the series’ final minute?  Someone’s going to have to answer for that one.

6 ) Was there some kind of deal made for the ’68 Jets to win Super Bowl III?  I mean, when you look at it, we’ve been through an awful lot since Broadway Joe made that guarantee.  Payback?  Over the last four decades, with precious few exceptions, we’ve made a mockery of the draft,  (Johnny “Lam” Jones, Browning Nagle and Vernon Gholston immediately leap to mind), hired Joe Walton and Rich Kotite to lead the team and suffered the longest Super Bowl drought this side of Detroit, while languishing at or near the bottom of the AFC East.   And, as long as we’re on the subject, what did Mark Sanchez do to piss You off?

"Twist of Fate"

5 ) When Olivia Newton John decided to marry someone thirteen years her junior, why wasn’t it me?  He couldn’t have been just five years younger?  Or ten?  Did he really have to be exactly my age?  That one still hurts.

4 ) If we had been able to make it into 2013, would Notre Dame have beaten Alabama?

3 ) JFK. Here’s what I think. Our deal with Khrushchev got the missiles out of Cuba but made us agree to back off on Castro. Fidel then brought the hammer down on the Mob, destroying a billion dollar racket. La Cosa Nostra, recruited by papa Joe Kennedy to rig the election in Chicago and then by President Jack Kennedy to take out Castro, got a teensy bit upset when the Cuban money dried up and Attorney General Bobby Kennedy went after organized crime. Thrice betrayed, the Mob  put a hit on the Commander in Chief. Did I get any of that right?

2 ) Would You have voted the steroid cheats into the Hall of Fame?

1 ) Why couldn’t we ever take the guns away from the bad guys?

Well, that’s the list. Don’t worry, though. I have an alternate plan if we should all see Ryan Seacrest on New Year’s Eve. Let’s get off of our fat asses and do something about these weapons, so that, when we finally meet the heroic teachers and little angels of Sandy Hook Elementary School, we can look them in the eye and tell them they didn’t die in vain.

Merry Christmas.

Imagine that you’ve booked Tom Clancy to speak at a writing seminar and, on his way to the podium, he falls and breaks his ankle. Just when you think all is lost, Clive Cussler rises from his seat in the audience and agrees to take over.   Imagine, still, that Elton John will be performing at your daughter’s Sweet Sixteen party.  As he’s stepping out of his car, however, he falls and breaks his ankle.  As your little girl begin to cry, the father of one of her friends, some guy named Billy Joel, mentions that he plays the piano a little bit and would be happy to step in.  Impossible scenarios?  Absolutely.  But, despite the odds, it’s exactly where Joe Girardi finds himself this morning. 

It’s unlikely that many Yankee fans are familiar with the name Mickey Stanley.  However, he is now the model for Girardi to follow if he wants to give his Bombers their best chance for a ring,

In 1968, as his Tigers headed into the World Series, manager Mayo Smith made a bold decision that allowed him to get an extra bat into the lineup.  Faced with the dilemma of losing one of his four heavy-hitting outfielders, Stanley, Al Kaline, Willie Horton or Jim Northrup, Smith inserted Stanley at shortstop for the anemic Ray Oyler, despite the fact that Stanley had never played the position.   All four hit the ball well dueling the Tigers’ seven game win over the favored Cardinals, while Stanley made two insignificant errors.  

Those were the wonderful old days when managers led with their instincts and did not answer to “the book”- the bible of baseball to most of today’s skippers, Girardi chief among them. The problem with “the book” is that it defies observational logic, telling you that all southpaws are more effective against left handed hitters than righties, no matter their talent level.  Or that a reliever pitches a specific inning of a game, with no regard for the batters he’ll be facing.  What “the book” actually does, is protect the manager from the second guess, serving as baseball’s version of The Emperor’s New Clothes, as  neither the media or fan base challenge these decisions, lest they reveal that they don’t know about “the book”. 

So, now, “the book” tells Girardi that Jayson Nix or Eduardo Nunez becomes the shortstop that will take the place of his best hitter.  To that end, we’ll be told by anyone in pinstripes that the move will serve as the smallest disruption of the lineup and maintain the menu of pinch hitting choices for Girardi to use late in the game, or some such nonsense.  No matter the explanation, however, nothing trumps the simple, obvious and indisputable logic that a batting order featuring Alex Rodriguez and Eric Chavez is stronger than any alternative.  Never mind the fact that Rodriguez, before his move to the hot corner, was the greatest to ever play the position.

And what of A Rod’s ability to handle a return to the middle of the diamond? The question to be answered is not whether Rodriguez can be the shortstop he once was.  Nor is it a concern that it’s been seven years since he was penciled into the lineup at short.  The only concern for Girardi should be- “Will      Alex play the position better than Nunez and/or Nix?  That the answer is a resounding YES may not matter, unless the Yankee skipper somehow finds it somewhere in the back of “the book”. 

by Eddie Mayrose

Despite the fact that my father is a Giants fan, (season ticket holder at Yankee Stadium, Section 12), Joe Namath’s Super Bowl
III victory over the Colts won me over as a child and, essentially, sentenced me to a life of pain and anguish as I’ve backed the Jets through four decades of misery ever since that fateful, January day.

It’s not that I don’t like the Giants. In fact, you’d think I bled Big Blue if you watched a game with me. I have so much respect for Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning that it’s impossible for me to wish them anything but success. And that’s the mindset with which I sat down to watch the opener against the Cowboys on Wednesday night. Until, that is, my favorite NFL player burst onto the scene and enjoyed the game of his life.

Don't be so quick to dismiss Kevin Ogletree's performance in Week 1. The ingredients are there for a breakout season.

As a high schooler, Kevin Ogletree, certainly the most acquired player in Fantasy Football this week,  went up against my son’s school early in his senior season. To that point, Terrence had been struggling to gain the confidence of his position coach, who preferred a more athletic player at cornerback, despite the fact that he was woefully inexperienced. Ogletree took full advantage that day, finding the end zone four times against his overmatched opponent.

It was then that my son was inserted as the starter, the secondary did not allow a TD pass the rest of the way, and Terrence went on to enjoy a wonderful college career at the Division III level- events that, to this day, he credits to that dominant performance by the future Cowboy.

Ogletree became a star at the University of Virginia and has spent the last few years struggling to make a name for himself with America’s Team. That is, until last Wednesday.

Don’t be too quick to dismiss his performance as a one hit wonder. He’s in a pass happy offense, and neither Dez Bryant or Miles Austin is anywhere near a lock to play 16 games. Ogletree has the potential to be this year’s version of Victor Cruz. And, if that happens, no one in Dallas will be happier than the guys in the Mayrose house.

As I Sit and Think

While the Buffalo Bills appeared, at times, as if they had gathered up 22 guys in the parking lot to face the Jets in last week’s opener, we believe in Gang Green WR Stephen Hill. Yes, we know he caught less than 30 balls in Georgia Tech’s option offense last year, but he averaged better than 29 yard per grab. Hell, he even showed a little Michael Irvin as he manhandled the Bills’ corners. If he’s on your FA wire, he’s absolutely worth a grab, as we wouldn’t be surprised to see 65+ catches and 8-10 TD… Looks like the law firm of Ben Jarvus Green Ellis will be given a lot more opportunity in Cincinnati than he ever saw while playing for the Bellichicks. He banged out 91 yards against the powerful Ravens D, falling short of the century mark only when the Bengals were forced to abandon the run early in the second half. This could be a 1,200 yard back with double digit TD… Despite the fact that we love the Cards’ WR combo of Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd, we can’t get behind them with Arizona’s QB situation as bad as it is…. With Revis Island closed for the weekend, you have to love Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace as the Steelers get back on track against a Big Rexy Defense that will also be missing LB Calvin Pace… Before you get all warm and fuzzy about C.J. Spiller, remember that his impressive Week 1 total against the Jets included two long runs in an otherwise pedestrian performance.  Proceed with caution… After a 1-2 start to the season, the Wagstaff picks for this week are the Ravens +2, Giants – 7 and the Seahawks +3.  Go Huxley!

by Eddie Mayrose

It didn’t start well. I’d been hoping to grab Calvin Johnson with the 8th pick of the Executive Invitational Fantasy League to which I’d been invited by my buddy, Corey Parson of SiriusXM Radio’s Fantasy Sports Network.

It was a Slow Draft, the first in which I’d ever participated, taking a little over a week to complete.  I was still in the process of figuring out the draft website when I pre-selected Mega-Tron as my first round pick and A.J. Green as my second rounder.  Or so I thought.

The old Professor has a lot riding on A.J. Green's continued success.

What I’d actually done, however, was slot Green as my alternate selection in the first round and, you guessed it, Johnson went in my face at number 7, making our league one of the few in America that saw A.J. tabbed in the opening stanza.

I was actually quite happy with the rest of my draft, following the standard Wagstaff format of receivers first, as I was able to add Andre Johnson and Victor Cruz to solidify that position.

The risk, as always , is that lead running backs will be gone by the time I get to them, but I was pleasantly surprised by the choices that fell to me. We’ll see how Michael Turner does in Atlanta with a smaller workload, find out if Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis can carry the load in Cincy and, most importantly, pray that  Rashard Mendenhall can return to form, but, as the season opens, I’m cautiously optimistic.

The roster reads as follows:

QB- Tony Romo
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Cassel

RB- Michael Turner
Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis
Beanie Wells
Rashard Mendenhall

WR- A.J. Green
Andre Johnson
Victor Cruz
Vincent Jackson
Stephen Hill

TE- Brandon Pettigrew
Brent Celek

DST- Houston Texans

K-   Garrett Hartley

And awaaaaaaay we go!

Wagstaff News and Notes

Despite the fact that Steelers’ head man Mike Tomlin says he won’t rule out RB Rashard Mendenhall for Sunday’s opener vs. the Denver Peytons, keep him on your bench.  Even if his surgically repaired knee is ready to go, it’s unlikely his touches will be anywhere near to what he’s accustomed… The enthusiasm of MJD owners patting themselves on the back for grabbing him at a discount just before he ended his holdout should be tempered.  The frequency by which players that go through an abbreviated camp turn up on the injured list is a major concern.  That goes for Mike Wallace, too… If Seattle RB Robert Turbin is a FA in your league, grab him. Hawks’ starter Marshawn Lynch is dealing with a bad back that could keep him out of Week 1 and legal issues that could keep him out longer than that.  Turbin should have a solid game this week vs. a generous Arizona defense… Just in case you’d forgotten since his last proclamation, Rex Ryan thinks he’s a great coach.  Just ask him… I appreciate Ravens’ head man John Harbaugh trying to make me feel better, but A.J. Green is not the best WR in football… I know there are only 12 games on the Penn State schedule, but I’m still hoping that, somehow, they lose 20 times… Not surprisingly, the Week 1 status of San Diego’s Ryan Mathews is uncertain. Don’t you wish you’d paid more attention to his history of injuries when he looked like such a steal last month?… Before you insert TE Jacob Tamme into your lineup because Peyton Manning just loves his Tight Ends, take a look at the Broncos’ depth chart, which currently lists Joel Dreesen as the starter… OK, here we go.  Love the Bills plus 6, Seattle plus 1 and San Francisco plus 7.  On Saturday, it’s Texas- New Mexico over 53 1/2, Southern Cal minus 25 1/2 and Virginia minus 8 1/2.  Go Huxley!

by Eddie Mayrose

I remember the last time I saw Billy Joel in concert.  It was 2005 at The Garden, more than a decade after he’d released his last album, River of Dreams.  Yet, here was the world’s most famous arena, packed to the rafters by middle aged men and women who’d been following the Piano Man for decades.  Why?  Because they all knew what they were going to get.  A terrific performance by an artist that had never let them down.  Like an old friend, Billy Joel delivers, and that reliability is what makes him so attractive.

Diamondbacks’ OF Jason Kubel may not be able to play the piano, but he’s another artist that never lets you down.  Better still, he doesn’t even cost very much as, year after year, Kubel goes in the very late stages of most mixed league drafts.  Yet, for his loyal followers, he’s a huge bargain- delivering robust BA, HR and RBI stats worthy of a selection made much earlier.

Arizona's Jason Kubel, the NL RBI leader, annually provides big numbers at a deep discount.

I started following Kubel years ago  as he rocketed through the Twins’ chain as their top hitting prospect; more so even than Justin Morneau,  Then, after a crippling knee injury nearly cost him his career, his comeback made him one of my favorite players.  He became a .300 hitter and 100 RBI guy on three Fantasy Championship teams, never for more than a 16th round pick.  Between Kubel and Johan Santana, the first Minnesota prospect I picked up out of the minors, I became quite the Twins fan.

Then, when Minnesota let him walk last winter, I was concerned that, without the opportunity to DH, Kubel might lose AB over the course of the season, as that knee always needed an occasional day off from the stress of playing the outfield.  It was reasonable to assume his power numbers would improve now that he would be leaving the over-spacious Target Field, but diminished playing time could negate that bump.  I was a little concerned heading into the draft.

Of course, I took him anyway; I’d have felt like I let him down if I didn’t.  And, once again, I’ve been rewarded for my loyalty, as Kubel is in the midst of a career year; waking up this morning as the NL leader in RBI, after clubbing 3 HR and knocking in 6 last night.  He’s on a pace for career highs in both categories, while closing in on a .300 BA.  There are a number of  first or second rounders whose production is nowhere near that of this reliable late rounder.

“Sing us a song, you’re the piano man…”

Fantasy News and Notes

If you haven’t grabbed Royals C Salvador Perez, especially if you’re in a keeper league, shame on you.  Flying well under the radar on most waiver wires because of a knee injury, Perez has picked up right where he left off last year,  when he popped 7 HR in a very short cup of coffee in Kansas City… Be wary of David Wright the rest of the way.  Yes, he’s in the midst of a career year.  But, as the wheels continue to come off of the Mets’ wagon, Wright will begin to see less and less strikes.   If you’re in contention, dealing Wright could bring back enough to put you over the top… Almost a month in, Cubs’ 1B Anthony Rizzo has been solid; if not spectacular.  Look for that to continue an consider holding on to Rizzo in keeper leagues for 2013.  Remember, the first thing Theo Epstein did upon taking over the Cubs was to re-acquire Rizzo, whom he’d shipped to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez trade for the Sawx… Like the swallows returning to Capistrano, Chad Billingsley’s season is headed for the trash heap just as the summer hits the midpoint.  Stay away from him even after he returns from the DL for the Dodgers… On the opposite end of the spectrum, look for Nats’ 1B Adam LaRoche to begin his annual second half asault…  Talk up the fact that Jake Peavy is just 1-5 in his last six starts and see if you can grab him in a trade.  He’s pitched in some tough luck while posting a 3.39 ERA with 56 K’s for the ChiSox over that same stretch.  Things are about to turn for him… I’m a believer in Marlins’ phenom Justin Ruggiano, especially because Florida currently does not have better options in the OF.  I don’t expect him to be sitting at .374 in September, but the HR and SB will both be well in to double figures.

by Eddie Mayrose

“Callous and shocking disregard for victims”.  That is how Judge Louis Freeh described the actions of the fraud, Joe Paterno, and the rest of the Cowardly Lions of Penn State as they attempted to cover up the criminal actions of Jerry Sandusky. Maybe now, after all this time, Paterno’s apologists, the ones who insist that the gutless coach followed procedure by reporting what he knew to his “superiors”, will shut up and go away.  It is time for the university, more of an inbred cult than a school, really, to acknowledge the heinous actions of the small coward that patrolled its sidelines for nearly half a century and turn its attention to finding a way to, finally, deliver justice to the victims.

Three weeks ago, after Sandusky was convicted on 45 counts of sexual abuse, I watched him being escorted from the courthouse and realized that no sentence would ever fit his crimes. That he will die in prison seems too small a price to pay for having not only stolen the lives of children, but to have actually founded an organization to facilitate his monstrous acts. Sadly, though, that is all that is left, and consecutive life sentences will have to do.

It is important, however, to realize that the Cowardly Lions, and especially Paterno, were every bit as culpable as Sandusky from the moment they learned that he was a monster and chose to protect their financial interests instead of the children. It is important to realize that, through their inaction, they ALL abused those children. And, more than anything else, it is important that they now make reparation for their tragic decisions.

Despite his success on the field, the late Joe Paterno's legacy is now the role he played in facilitating Jerry Sandusky's sexual abuse of children.

A good start would be to remove Paterno’s statue from the entrance to Beaver Stadium, as it now stands as a monument to the terrible consequences of the school’s indifference.  Another would be to keep Paterno’s son, Jay, away from anyone with a microphone, or at least have someone standing by to slap him every time he intimates that his father followed procedure by reporting the shower incident to his superiors.  Let’s be very clear: Paterno had no superiors at Penn State and, as was revealed by emails uncovered during the investigation, dictated policy at the school. Finally, it is time to forfeit the tainted riches of its football program to Sandusky’s victims, a fate as symbolic as it is punitive, since it was the protection of this very institution that endangered these children in the first place.

A few years back, when, after his death, it came to light that longtime Poly Prep football coach, Phil Foglietta, had sexually abused students for more than two decades, a close friend of mine, enraged by the crimes of the previously revered coach, commented on what he thought would be an appropriate punishment.  ”They should dig him up and shoot him.”  I’m thinking that now might be a good time for someone at Penn State to find a shovel.

By Eddie Mayrose

No matter how closely we follow Fantasy Baseball, there are still those, “Really?”, moments that occur as we follow the scroll on the bottom of the screen during MLB Network’s Quick Pitch. Adam Dunn has 15?!  Who’s this guy Reddick with 12 for Oakland?!  Isn’t Dayan Viciedo in the minors?  Some form of each of these questions has been asked over the past few weeks by just about everyone but the jurors that fell asleep at the Roger Clemens trial. And each was followed by the same musing:  Can he keep this up or have I already missed the boat.

The late, great Forte Bellino of the 40Kane Fantasy Baseball League had a saying for such transactions. “Missed the wedding, made the funeral.”  It seems more likely that, having missed the hot streak from Edwin Encarnacion that owners have expected for the better part of a decade, you’ll pick him up or trade for him and watch him immediately revert to his standard mediocrity.  For the good Doctor, such transactions become Fantasy Baseball’s version of a cold shower, as he’s never had a problem cooling off the hottest of players.  So, where does that leave us with those guys that have enjoyed an unexpected burst of power to this point? And, perhaps more importantly, who are the late bloomers that might land a date with the hot girl before the season is out?  Let’s take a look.

Boyfriend Material

Is Billy Butler enjoying a breakout season?

Billy Butler- Long a doubles machine for the Royals, this professional hitter has matured to the point that many of those two-baggers are now dingers.  Butler is looking at a 30 HR season.

Jason Kipnis- The Indians young, second-sacker is no flash in the pan, as his solid start follows a September 2011 call up that saw him go deep seven times.  He’s a sure 20-20 guy with 30-30 potential.

Bryan LaHair- With all the troubles the Cubs have had over the last few years, you have to wonder what took them so long to give LaHair a shot.  He’s spent the last 3 seasons at AAA averaging 30 HR and 90 RBI.  We were hesitant to jump on LaHair’s bandwagon at first, but no longer.  He’s a hitter.

Josh Reddick- The A’s best player.  Since Yoenis Cespedes has disappeared, Reddick is Oakland’s only, real, offensive threat.  Despite having no protection in the lineup, he’s still posted 12 bombs while also pacing the A’s in BA and RBI.  Not convinced?  Get a good look at his swing; one of the sweetest in the game.

One Night Stands

Can Adam Jones maintain his HR/Fly Ball ratio? We don't think so.

Adam Jones- Make no mistake, Jones is absolutely living up to all of the expectations the Birds had for him when he was acquired from Seattle.  His 2012 season will, no doubt, yield a career high of 30+ HR.  However, his HR/Fly Ball ratio is absurdly high and we don’t think he can sustain it.  We expect him to hit close to 30, which means he’s already logged close to half of that total.

Dayan Viciedo- We’ve been burned by Dayan in the past, so we’re hesitant to commit just yet. While he may actually be a youngster coming into his own after a few false starts, we can’t overlook the fact that he has but 4 BB in 148 AB and a mere 3 extra base hits outside of his 10 jacks.  The jury is still way out on Viciedo, and we think you should let someone else find out if he’s the real thing.

Matt Joyce- A very reliable part of the Rays’ lineup, he’s on pace to shatter his presonal best of 19 HR; set last year. In projecting forward, though, we can’t dismiss how badly his statistics fell off in 2011 after a torrid start. Sadly, we expect more of the same.

Edwin Encarnacion- Hell hath no fury like a Fantasy Owner scorned. Encarnacion and his potential have been making fools of us for years.  So much so, that we can’t believe his success is sustainable.  His BA for May stands at .222, down from his April mark of .322 and he’s walked just 17 times.  If, (a big if), his power surge continues into June, look for AL pitchers to change the book on this free swinger.

Blind Dates

Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt is a solid, Buy Low power source.

Paul Goldschmidt- Let’s not forget that the D’Backs, in the middle of a pennant race last season, inserted this young slugger into the middle of their lineup for the stretch run.  He’s always hit for power and average, he’s in a great hitter’s park and he’s starting to get his feet under him.  Bet that he’ll finish with 20+ and steal him while you can.

Ryan Zimmerman- The Nats’ best hitter is finally beginning to look healthy.  With Adam LaRoche raking behind him and Bryce Harper emerging, it’ll be no time before Zim is putting up the numbers that are his signature.

Ian Kinsler- Be patient here.  Kinsler is enjoying a wonderful start, with a .285 BA and 14 doubles. He’s only got 5 HR right now, but we still like him to finish near 30. Go get him.

by Eddie Mayrose

Got a call this week from one of my favorite patients, Marc Hibsher, of the 40Kane Fantasy Baseball League.  It wasn’t entirely pleasant, as he was having difficulty following the method for Fantasy Baseball success that I had prescribed for him shortly after his draft.

“OK, Doc”, he began.  ” I get the whole patience thing.  I agree that the first two weeks aren’t a large enough sample of how the season will unfold and that I can do more harm than good by being hasty.  I actually agreed with you, as hasty has never been a good fit for me.  Actually, hasty has always gotten me in trouble.”

“However, I’m a month into my season and I’ve got a guy riding Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton and running away with my league.  Now, can I do something?”

Well, Marc, I’m going to say yes, but advise moderation.  The danger you face in pulling the plug on some of your draft picks is to ship guys out that are on the verge of breaking out, while others that you desire may have a bit of a false resume.  You could end up with a non-substantive squad as empty as a newspaper with no news.

Let’s bulldozier our way through some Buy Low, Sell High and Stay Put candidates and see if we can rehabilitate your roster.

Buy Low

Gavin Floyd- The White Sox hurler has made a career as an adequate starter.  His stated goal coming into 2012 was a 20 win season; something that looked out of reach during his slow start. However, he’s now lowered his ERA to 2.53 after his latest outing while sporting a career-best K rate ans a WHIP below 1.00.  Jump on him  if you can.  He won’t cost much if you’re quick.

Adam LaRoche- Long a second half of the season superstar, LaRoche has finally gotten off to the kind of start that leads to a career year.  His OBP is the biggest indicator, sitting at a robust .430 in the middle of a solid lineup. Don’t expect his OPS to ramain above 1.000, but he’ll give you a great return on investment.

Sell High

Erik Bedard- If you were fortunate enough to scoop Bedard in the late rounds, you’ve had a nice run to this point. He’s given you a nice K rate and good ERA; stats that have hidden weaker peripherals.  He’s had a tough time going deep into games and his WHIP is an awful 1.37. Dump him before he turns south.

Hunter Pence- He hasn’t responded well to being the star of the dilapidated Phillies’ lineup, struggling along with a horrible OBP of .300.  Pence is still a guy with enough star quality to bring a decent price if you move fast.

Stay Put

Lance Lynn- The common thought about this largely disregarded phenom is that he’ll be coming back to earth very soon.  Don’t be so quick to buy into that theory, as the emerging Cardinal ace will see a good number of starts against weak divisional foes like Houston, Pittsburgh and Chicago.  Hang on to him.

Albert Pujols- Even though he’s shaping up to the biggest bust in Fantasy history, there is no recourse but to stay the course at this point. The only bids you’ll receive will be significantly discounted, and you’ll be furious when he finally does start to rake if he’s doing it for someone else.

Who Do You Trust?

There isn’t a Fantasy Baseball writer or publication, (including this one), that isn’t penning a piece this week cautioning Fantasy owners to be patient; that the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and that the convictions you held entering your draft should not have been shaken by a player’s performance over the first few weeks.

That is a predominantly valid theory, as three weeks is certainly not a large enough sample to make a decision on how a player’s season will evolve.  At least not those of whom you had a very strong opinion before the season began.  But what about those major leaguers of whom you weren’t sure?  The guys returning from injury, the kids making their major league debuts or the veterans looking to bounce back from bad years?  When have we seen enough to make an informed decision about them?

As part of our weekly quest to guide you to a Yoo-Hoo shower in he fall, we present the following list of players that have our full faith and confidence, as well as those for whom we’d accept a few felt tip pens and a 2013 Draft Cheat Sheet in return. It’ll help you identify the guys you should keep, discard or acquire.  Good luck

“Maybe this is Heaven.”… Ray Kinsella

Bartolo Colon (A’s)- If Colon keeps this up, he may be the second pitcher in MLB history to have a surgery named after him.  In one stretch during his last start, he threw 38 consecutive strikes.  Much like Tommy John, he seems even stronger in the second season after his return than the first- and Colon was certainly a pleasant surprise in the Bronx last year. Colon is becoming the workhorse of the Oakland staff and absolutely warrants a spot on your roster.

Lance Lynn (Cardinals)- At first glance, their is no reason to believe that his 3-0 record and excellent peripherals are anything more than a hot streak.  Maybe,  but, given that his next three starts come against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Houston,  ride him for another two weeks, at least.

David Freese (Cardinals)- His fast start is actually a carryover from an incredible September and Postseason.  Lots of players can put together productive streaks but the stars are the ones that can do it when it counts.  We strongly believe that Freese is serving notice that he is one of the NL’s next big names.

Austin Jackson (Tigers)-  Every once in a while, Fantasy owners have to put away the spreadsheets and SABR metrics and listen to the men on the field.  Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland was adamant during spring training that Jackson was in for a big year after changing his approach at the plate.  He’s off to a sizzling start, drawing more bases on balls than last year and making a prophet of his skipper.  Expect a performance much closer to his 2010 total than those of last season.

Justin Morneau (Twins)- Many Fantasy owners were burned last season when Morneau couldn’t shake the effects of the concussion that cost him most of 2010.  Even more vowed that they wouldn’t make that mistake this year and are dismissive of his production over the first few weeks.  But, we’ll take the word of Ron Gardenhire.  The Twins’ skipper was the most cautious voice during Morneau’s return in 2011, vowing to keep his MVP first baseman out of the lineup until he was completely healthy, no matter how long it took.  So, when Gardenhire declared him ready for a big year, we listened.  Good thing.

Jonathan Niese (Mets)- There used to be a time when pitchers, especially lefties, were given time to hit their stride.  To gain the experience necessary for success.  Niese, in his third full season, has arrived at that point in his career.  A fluid lefty with sneaky fast velocity, he’s learned how to pitch in the big leagues and will soon be the Mets’ ace.  None other than Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson agrees, as he signed Niese to a long term deal just before the season.

“You said your finger was a gun!”… Terrence Mann

Adam Dunn (White Sox)- Don’t be fooled by his 2 HR game yesterday.  Dunn had three more hits vs LHP in 2011 than you did.  We have no idea why Dunn is no longer the HRv terror he was in the NL but, as Fantasy Owners, we don’t have the time to find out.  There is every possibility he’ll return to form.  Just let someone else bet on that.  Not you.

Chris Davis (Orioles)- His .375 BA into this weekend is encouraging, as is the fact that he’s cut down dramatically on his strikeouts. However, that contact rate comes at a price, as Davis has but 1 HR so far.  You can’t have a first baseman with no pop.

Bryan LaHair(Cubs)- Admittedly, we don’t know much about him.  What we do know, however, is that it took him more than a decade to reach the majors. There’s a reason for that.  Take what LaHair gives you for now and dump him as soon as he hits a bump in the road, as GM Theo Epstein is dying to get his old Boston farmhand, Anthony Rizzo, into that spot.

Chase Headley (Padres)- We all know the story of the blind squirrel. Nine of Headley’s first sixteen hits have been for extra bases, despite the fact that he has never been a power hitter.Couple that with Petco park’s unfriendly nature toward hitters and you have a classic, “sell high” candidate.

Jake Arrietta (Orioles)- We got a glimpse of the rest of Arrietta’s season last night as he was cuffed around by the Angels.  He’s a talented kid with all the tools, but has yet to put them all together to the degree necessary for him to survive the brutal lineups he’ll face in the AL East.

Fantasy News and Notes
Don’t miss a great piece by  Joe Sheehan in last week’s SI.  In the column, titled, “Abolishing Savery”, Sheehan makes the point about the absurdity by which the save rule dictates how managers employ their bullpens.  Nice to know I’m not a lone voice in the wilderness… In 50+ seasons, the New York Mets have never had a pitcher throw a no-hitter.  However, after yesterday’s perfecto by Philip Humber, ex Mets have now accounted for 13… Before you look to acquire Marlon Byrd for your AL-only roster, take a look at his dismal start in Chicago.  His 3 for 43 start might take a little of the Boston Boo-Birds’ focus away from Bobby V… The greatest thing about my XM Radio and MLB.TV accounts?  Having the daily enjoyment of listening to Vin Scully broadcast a game.  It should be a crime for hacks like John Sterling to say their in the seame business… After watching  a few A’s games, I’m quite impressed with RF Josh Reddick.  He’s got a terrific swing, good speed and is a strong defensive outfielder.  His slow start may give you an opportunity to stash him as a prospect on your reserve roster… Umpire Joe West is easily my least favorite figure in all of baseball,as his pugnacious, combative nature and diminishing skills as an arbiter combine with his desire to be the focus of attention to create a mountain of incompetence.  Have to give Cowboy Joe his props, though, when it comes to Yankees-Red Sox.  With all of the stepping out of the box, interminable pitching changes and softball lineups, games between these two rivals are unbearably and unnecessarily long… Stick your toe in the water and see if anyone in your league is frustrated enough with Josh Johnson or Tim Lincecum to dump him in a trade. Given their pedigrees, their is no reason not to expect both to respond from their sub-par Aprils and give you a huge return on investment… With Aroldis Chapman’s K rate at 2 per IP and Sean Marshall struggling, how long will it be before Dusty Baker makes Chapman his closer.

by Eddie Mayrose

Last August, I wrote a column that was, essentially, a letter to my 2012 Draft-Day self, beseeching caution on a number of fronts where, in the past, a blind eye had served to bite me in the butt during the season.

Luckily, I included that column as part of my Draft Prep last month and skirted the biggest pitfall- Closers.  Highlighting the line: “No matter how often we hear that Saves are Fantasy Baseball’s most unreliable statistic, it’s difficult to pass on established closers” , I remained patient and didn’t reach early.  That pearl of wisdom, seemingly obvious, was unfortunately ignored by many once the first two or three relievers came off the board.

Think about it.  The “Closer Run” is the first in any draft, as some Fantasy Owners scurry like frightened deer to grab recognizable names three and four rounds earlier than their statistics/opportunity/reliability dictate.  And, every year, many of these guys spend April bemoaning the fact that their selections have gotten out of the gate slowly, or, worse, performed poorly enough to lose the job.

The first two weeks of the 2012 campaign have followed the annual script, with as many as ten teams uncertain about the role or being forced to show patience with their struggling stoppers. While this ambiguity may be a headache for the likes of Bobby Valentine, it’s an opportunity for Fantasy Owners to add 20+ Saves to the statistics through judicious use of the waiver wire. Here’s a quick, Moonlight synopsis of how some of these situations might play out.

San Francisco-  With Brian Wilson likely out for the season, the Giants have no option but the always ill-fated “Closer by Committee” system. Of the candidates, the favorite to receive the most opportunities is Santiago Casilla,who was 6 out of 7 in 2011 when Wilson was out.

Detroit & Miami- Even though Jose Valverde and Heath Bell have each blown two saves over the season’s first ten days,(and looked terrible in doing so), neither is in danger of losing his job.  Valverde, who was a perfect 49 for 49 for the Tigers in 2011, has built up enough credit with Jim Leyland to dissuade the manager from making a change, while the Marlins are locked into Bell by virtue of the big contract he signed over the winter.

Toronto- Sergio Santos never could win over the White Sox brain trust during his stay in Chicago, prompting his trade to the Blue Jays. He’s currently sporting an ERA and WHIP that would get him demoted on my son’s Little League team.  With an established closer like Francisco Cordero in the same bullpen, Santos is on a short leash.

Washington- With the news that Drew Storen will likely be out until the All Star break, Nats’ fans are becoming familiar with the anxiety experienced by Phillies’ faithful over the last few years whenever Brad Lidge was called into a game.  Lidge has split two outings, looking good in the first and abysmal in the second.  That inconsistency will probably open the door for Henry Rodriguez and his 100 MPH heater, as Davey Johnson is unlikely to move the reliable Tyler Clippard from the set-up role.

Texas- Joe Nathan has long been a Moonlight favorite, so it pains us to watch him struggle.  We still think that Nathan will work his way back from TJ surgery, but, if he doesn’t, the Rangers will probably turn to Mike Adams.

Boston- Alfredo Aceves has become a symbol of the discord between Red Sox GM Ben Cherington and manager Bobby Valentine.  Bobby V wanted Aceves as part of his rotation while Cherington demanded that career-reliever Daniel Bard be inserted as the fourth starter.  As each continues to struggle in his new job, look for Valentine to impose his will and turn to Bard.

Kansas City- Jonathan Broxton is a two time All Star with little competition in the Royals’ bullpen now that Joakim Soria is gone for the year.  Even after a 2 BB, 2 HBP meltdown vs. Oakland, KC manager Ned Yost declared that Broxton is his man. Not knowing what, specifically, caused Broxton’s fall from grace in Los Angeles. we’re a little less confident, and might take a look at Greg Holland.

Cleveland- When Chris Perez went down with an oblique injury during Spring Training, it was thought he wouldn’t be ready for the Tribe’s opener.  He wasn’t, as he got cuffed around in his 2012 debut.  He’s 2 for 2 since, but we really think that Vinnie Pestano is the better pitcher, and will eventually take the job.

Chicago Cubs- If you already have Carlos Marmol, you know that his Saves will be accompanied by horrific peripheral stats.  You’re stuck, though, as Kerry Wood is the only option for the Cubbies.  He’s almost as bad.