Now that’s funny! It seems to always have been that way with the Mets, hasn’t it? Must be the jet fuel from all of the planes flying over Shea/Citi.

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Devorah

Thanks for your analysis – the position scarcity case is always a difficult one to make. Several thoughts after reading your piece:

1) There’s no trading allowed in this league (don’t ask me why), so the hoarding strategy wouldn’t help you much here (unless you’d already drafted a player who’s a high injury risk at the same position).

2) While looking at last year’s results can certainly be helpful, I think it’s better to base a comparison like the one you made on 2011 projected results for the players in question. Not saying that would necessarily lead you to a different conclusion in this case, but it’s something to consider.

3) If you’re going to do a comparison like this, I think you need to cut it off for both teams at the same point. If you’re comparing Team A’s 1st and 3rd round picks to Team B’s 1st and 2nd round picks, I would hope that Team B would look better – if not, Team B may be in some trouble. Since Tim Heaney took an OF in the third round (Justin Upton) and I took an OF in the 2nd round (Matt Kemp), that would leave you comparing Wright/Kemp/Youkilis with Votto/Zimmerman/Upton. Not saying that I’d win that comparison either, but I think it would be a bit closer.

4) I think the fairest way to do a comparison like this is to compare the final rosters (http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/story/14583184). It was definitely tough passing up Votto in the first round, but I’m not confident he can steal as many bases or hit as many home runs in 2011 as he did in 2010. Time will tell. My team certainly has weaknesses (e.g.- starting pitching), but I’m still comfortable with my strategy to focus my early-round picks on a combination of position scarcity and guys who can contribute in both the HR and SB categories. Obviously, Youkilis doesn’t fit that mold, but Wright and Kemp do.

Anyway, thanks for the thought-provoking post – will be interesting to see how this league plays out!

Scott (The Sherpa)