Who Do You Trust?

There isn’t a Fantasy Baseball writer or publication, (including this one), that isn’t penning a piece this week cautioning Fantasy owners to be patient; that the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and that the convictions you held entering your draft should not have been shaken by a player’s performance over the first few weeks.

That is a predominantly valid theory, as three weeks is certainly not a large enough sample to make a decision on how a player’s season will evolve.  At least not those of whom you had a very strong opinion before the season began.  But what about those major leaguers of whom you weren’t sure?  The guys returning from injury, the kids making their major league debuts or the veterans looking to bounce back from bad years?  When have we seen enough to make an informed decision about them?

As part of our weekly quest to guide you to a Yoo-Hoo shower in he fall, we present the following list of players that have our full faith and confidence, as well as those for whom we’d accept a few felt tip pens and a 2013 Draft Cheat Sheet in return. It’ll help you identify the guys you should keep, discard or acquire.  Good luck

“Maybe this is Heaven.”… Ray Kinsella

Bartolo Colon (A’s)- If Colon keeps this up, he may be the second pitcher in MLB history to have a surgery named after him.  In one stretch during his last start, he threw 38 consecutive strikes.  Much like Tommy John, he seems even stronger in the second season after his return than the first- and Colon was certainly a pleasant surprise in the Bronx last year. Colon is becoming the workhorse of the Oakland staff and absolutely warrants a spot on your roster.

Lance Lynn (Cardinals)- At first glance, their is no reason to believe that his 3-0 record and excellent peripherals are anything more than a hot streak.  Maybe,  but, given that his next three starts come against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Houston,  ride him for another two weeks, at least.

David Freese (Cardinals)- His fast start is actually a carryover from an incredible September and Postseason.  Lots of players can put together productive streaks but the stars are the ones that can do it when it counts.  We strongly believe that Freese is serving notice that he is one of the NL’s next big names.

Austin Jackson (Tigers)-  Every once in a while, Fantasy owners have to put away the spreadsheets and SABR metrics and listen to the men on the field.  Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland was adamant during spring training that Jackson was in for a big year after changing his approach at the plate.  He’s off to a sizzling start, drawing more bases on balls than last year and making a prophet of his skipper.  Expect a performance much closer to his 2010 total than those of last season.

Justin Morneau (Twins)- Many Fantasy owners were burned last season when Morneau couldn’t shake the effects of the concussion that cost him most of 2010.  Even more vowed that they wouldn’t make that mistake this year and are dismissive of his production over the first few weeks.  But, we’ll take the word of Ron Gardenhire.  The Twins’ skipper was the most cautious voice during Morneau’s return in 2011, vowing to keep his MVP first baseman out of the lineup until he was completely healthy, no matter how long it took.  So, when Gardenhire declared him ready for a big year, we listened.  Good thing.

Jonathan Niese (Mets)- There used to be a time when pitchers, especially lefties, were given time to hit their stride.  To gain the experience necessary for success.  Niese, in his third full season, has arrived at that point in his career.  A fluid lefty with sneaky fast velocity, he’s learned how to pitch in the big leagues and will soon be the Mets’ ace.  None other than Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson agrees, as he signed Niese to a long term deal just before the season.

“You said your finger was a gun!”… Terrence Mann

Adam Dunn (White Sox)- Don’t be fooled by his 2 HR game yesterday.  Dunn had three more hits vs LHP in 2011 than you did.  We have no idea why Dunn is no longer the HRv terror he was in the NL but, as Fantasy Owners, we don’t have the time to find out.  There is every possibility he’ll return to form.  Just let someone else bet on that.  Not you.

Chris Davis (Orioles)- His .375 BA into this weekend is encouraging, as is the fact that he’s cut down dramatically on his strikeouts. However, that contact rate comes at a price, as Davis has but 1 HR so far.  You can’t have a first baseman with no pop.

Bryan LaHair(Cubs)- Admittedly, we don’t know much about him.  What we do know, however, is that it took him more than a decade to reach the majors. There’s a reason for that.  Take what LaHair gives you for now and dump him as soon as he hits a bump in the road, as GM Theo Epstein is dying to get his old Boston farmhand, Anthony Rizzo, into that spot.

Chase Headley (Padres)- We all know the story of the blind squirrel. Nine of Headley’s first sixteen hits have been for extra bases, despite the fact that he has never been a power hitter.Couple that with Petco park’s unfriendly nature toward hitters and you have a classic, “sell high” candidate.

Jake Arrietta (Orioles)- We got a glimpse of the rest of Arrietta’s season last night as he was cuffed around by the Angels.  He’s a talented kid with all the tools, but has yet to put them all together to the degree necessary for him to survive the brutal lineups he’ll face in the AL East.

Fantasy News and Notes
Don’t miss a great piece by  Joe Sheehan in last week’s SI.  In the column, titled, “Abolishing Savery”, Sheehan makes the point about the absurdity by which the save rule dictates how managers employ their bullpens.  Nice to know I’m not a lone voice in the wilderness… In 50+ seasons, the New York Mets have never had a pitcher throw a no-hitter.  However, after yesterday’s perfecto by Philip Humber, ex Mets have now accounted for 13… Before you look to acquire Marlon Byrd for your AL-only roster, take a look at his dismal start in Chicago.  His 3 for 43 start might take a little of the Boston Boo-Birds’ focus away from Bobby V… The greatest thing about my XM Radio and MLB.TV accounts?  Having the daily enjoyment of listening to Vin Scully broadcast a game.  It should be a crime for hacks like John Sterling to say their in the seame business… After watching  a few A’s games, I’m quite impressed with RF Josh Reddick.  He’s got a terrific swing, good speed and is a strong defensive outfielder.  His slow start may give you an opportunity to stash him as a prospect on your reserve roster… Umpire Joe West is easily my least favorite figure in all of baseball,as his pugnacious, combative nature and diminishing skills as an arbiter combine with his desire to be the focus of attention to create a mountain of incompetence.  Have to give Cowboy Joe his props, though, when it comes to Yankees-Red Sox.  With all of the stepping out of the box, interminable pitching changes and softball lineups, games between these two rivals are unbearably and unnecessarily long… Stick your toe in the water and see if anyone in your league is frustrated enough with Josh Johnson or Tim Lincecum to dump him in a trade. Given their pedigrees, their is no reason not to expect both to respond from their sub-par Aprils and give you a huge return on investment… With Aroldis Chapman’s K rate at 2 per IP and Sean Marshall struggling, how long will it be before Dusty Baker makes Chapman his closer.

by Eddie Mayrose

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I was recently invited into an Auction League by Colby Schaeffer of ProFSL.  I don’t know that Colby called it an experts league, (tough to do, I suppose, after inviting me), but I certainly considered it to be.  I’ve got some work to do now that the auction is complete, as I came up a little short on the back end of my pitching staff.  You’ll also see that Joe Mauer is my UT for $17, as I got caught with my pants down, after grabbing Alex Avila,  trying to inflate his value.  Well, as you all know, I love the Twins anyway, so maybe Mauer stays off the DL this year.

Check out the impressive list of GM’s, as well as Colby’s extremely cool, Bill James based scoring. We’ll be posting from time to time about my progress, (or lack thereof), during the season.  For now, Can’t wait for Thursday! Enough of these up and down games with clocks.  Take me out to the ball game!

This is the first article in a long series about the ProFSL MLB Challenge 2012 hosted by advanced fantasy sports community ProFSL and played on Yahoo  This challenge is a free, redraft, H2H-points league composed of 12 GMs across 9 different websites.

The scoring system used for the league is fairly unique.  It is rooted in the writings of Bill James and is a Yahoo friendly version of ProFSL’s Moneyball franchise-style dynasty league.  This system weighs baseball statistics in detail covering the likes of HBP, CS, and GIDP.  It rewards position players much more than pitchers based on James’ ratios.  His ratios suggested that pitching contributed 36% to a win, batting was 47%, and defense was 17%.  Well, with a defense-neutral scoring system, these ratios change to about 57% batting and 43% pitching.  Nevertheless, a great pitching staff can lead teams to victories just as it proves in real-life.  This scoring system goes even further with the roster as there are 5 SP slots and 6 RP slots.  Rotating pitchers is not a must for teams who run 5-man rotations.  While there is no weekly IP limit, there is a weekly acquisition limit of 4 players to prevent streaming.

This first article will go into detail about Monday night’s auction draft .  It was a competitive event that lasted three hours.  We even took a couple timeouts (one for a mishap Adrian Beltre pick by the disconnected Sherpas).  Auction drafts  notoriously take longer, but some great results come out of them.  Every GM can use their own unique strategy to build their team.  In this issue, each team will not be analyzed, but the overall results of the draft and implied rankings will be analyzed.  Teams will be analyzed shortly before the season starts to give GMs time to shore up their rosters.  Before we cover the draft, here is the Roster of GMs and Dollar Values in the Challenge.   

The Moonlight Graham Roster

C –  Alex Avila $18  ( Probably spent too much,  backstops like Posey were cheaper, later on.  Love Avila, though.)

1B- Joey Votto $54  (The one guy I had to have, and a steal compared to Miggy at $68.)

2B- Ryan Roberts $5

SS- Jhonny Peralta $1 (Why does Jhonny get no love?)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman $29

OF- Josh Hamilton $25

OF- Ichiro Suzuki $8 (Need a big bounce back season or I’m through.)

OF- Delmon Young $1

UT- Joe Mauer $17 (Sometimes we outsmart ourselves.)

Bench-Paul Goldschmidt $8  (Expecting a huge year.)

Bench- Jemile Weeks $1

Bench- Dexter Fowler $1

SP- Clayton Kershaw $34   ( My anchor.  Thought he was cheap at $34)

SP- Matt Cain $18

SP- Josh Johnson $11  (If healthy, a steal.  That’s a BIG if.)

SP- John Danks $2

SP- Brett Myers $1 (Houston’s closer.  My last option for Saves.)

RP-Matt Moore $18 (The most expensive RP, because I bid on him as an SP.)

RP- John Axford $5

RP- Matt Capps $1

RP- Scott Downs $1

Looking forward to the greatest sports week of the year, featuring the NCAA championship game, the Masters and, of course, Opening Day of the MLB season. Come Sunday afternoon, it may take a surgeon to remove the remote control from my hand…Was disappointed by the result of the National Semi-Final between Kentucky and Louisville, as I was rooting for both coaches to lose… With Michael Pineda headed to the DL, (no doubt as a direct result of my drafting him), you have to wonder if the Mariners knew they were dealing damaged goods.  Why else would they give up on such a powerful young arm?… No matter how many opinions are offered as to the reason the Jets traded for Tim Tebow, very few have anything to do with the most important- He stinks.  Talk all you want about that winning streak the Broncos enjoyed when he first took over, but it was driven by an excellent defense.  Don’t forget how bad he was against New England, Buffalo and, especially, Kansas City when the Broncos needed a win to get into the playoffs… No matter how many Fantasy Drafts I’ve been in, I am always amazed how much importance guys place on stolen bases.  I don’t care if Emilio Bonifacio gets 100 bags, I can’t make up for the zeroes he gives me in the other categories… Don’t get caught sleeping on your roster during the first month, as the pickups you make can sometimes be more important than your draft picks… The fact that Tiger won at Bay Hill isn’t enough for me to slot him as the favorite at Augusta.  He did look a lot like the old Tiger, but Bay Hill is as close to a home-court advantage as any golfer can have, as Woods won for the seventh time.  If he’s on the first page of the leaderboard after the second day, then I’ll believe… Took Matt Kemp with the third pick in my mixed league the other night, not even considering Ryan Braun.  In fact, had Kemp been gone, I’d have taken Jose Bautista, so little faith have I in Braun the Juicehead.  With Fielder and Hart no longer protecting him and a reasonable expectation that he’s no longer using PED’s, I’m a short seller… Looking forward to the 25th season of the 40Kane Fantasy Baseball League.  After a quarter century, it’s now more about staying in touch with frienda than it is baseball.  We’ve been there for each other through marriage, births and deaths, as well as the trials and tribulations of the last decade, when a weakened economy ravaged our livelihood on Wall Street. We’ve leaned on each other for support, reveled in each other’s company and welcomed our sons into the league as owners.  I laugh when I hear gasbags like Mike Francesa label Fantasy players as guys with no lives.  In my league, we sustain the friendships that make our lives special.  Have a great season, guys.

by Eddie Mayrose

Before ESPN, CBS and Yahoo realized the amount of money they were leaving on the table by ignoring Fantasy Baseball and its enthusiasts, there was a simple formula for success in a Fantasy league: be prepared.

Those guys that digested the preview publications beginning in January, scanned Baseball America for prospects and read the daily team notes in USA Today were miles ahead of the guys that picked up a magazine on their way to the draft. Today, all of that information is available to any bonehead with a laptop, even if he doesn’t look at it until draft night.

With that advantage gone, the mechanics of the selection process are the sole vehicle by which experienced owners can separate themselves from the rest of the pack.To that end, Dr. Graham has decided to share the tenets by which you can dominate your draft.

Value Early Value
In the early stages of the draft, especially in the first round, you MUST get players that are virtual certainties to produce at a very high level. It’s your best shot at an elite player, so there is no room at all for speculation. Which brings me to Ryan Braun. A top-three player on the surface, Braun’s use of PED’s brings his entire body of work into question. Worse, he’ll no longer have Prince Fielder batting behind him, he’s currently 1 for 15 this Spring and Ron Roenicke is hesitant to play him on the road for fear the abuse will be a distraction. If that’s the case in Florida, what happens the first time he’s in Philadelphia? Braun may very well repeat as NL MVP, but he’s got too much baggage for you to justify using an early first rounder on him at this point.

Don’t Sleep On Your Sleepers
The highlight of any draft is unearthing an All Star in the late rounds and watching him help your team to a title. Don’t lose sight, however, that everyone else at the table has a sleeper list and it’s likely that they’re looking at a few of the same guys. Therefore, don’t be too greedy in letting a sleeper slide a few rounds. If you’ve slotted a guy for the 12th round but start to get nervous in the 10th, take him. There is nothing worse than watching a player star for another Fantasy team because you were afraid to pull the trigger.

Medic!
We’ve all been there. The draft is starting to get a little thin, when you notice names like Johan Santana or Justin Morneau still on the board and you talk yourself into the likelihood that they’ll be able to rebound from injury and produce at their previous levels. While it’s risky, it does, occasionally, work out. Just make sure you don’t take a flier on more than one. If you have two or three and they all go down, your season is over.

A Pair of Aces Beats One
So, you’re in the middle of the 2nd round of a mixed league and you happily scoop Justin Verlander. The classic mistake is to think that you’ve now anchored your staff and can wait until the later phase to fill out the remaining slots. Wrong! When you’ve used an early pick on a pitcher, you’ve committed to making that a strength and must follow up with a Jered Weaver or David Price in the next few rounds. If not, Verlander is just one guy on among a bunch of slugs, your pitching is still weak and you threw away an early pick that could’ve been used on a productive hitter.

Scarcity Can’t Scare You
Do not get sucked into the paranoia of position scarcity in the early rounds. This is where you’ll build the foundation of your team and it is imperative that the players you select will give you the best numbers. Conventional thinking tells you to grab Troy Tulowitzki with one of the top 5 picks because the Shortstop position is so thin. However, while that gives you a significant leg up at the position,you’re taking a hit on the stat sheet if you passed on players like Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera or Jose Bautista; all of whom will give you better numbers. Taking Tulo and following him up with a second-tier corner infielder weakens your team, even minimally, at two spots. Worry about scarcity when platoon players begin to appear in the later rounds; not before.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten Fantasy Players

1 Matt Kemp
2 Jose Bautista
3 Albert Pujols
4 Joey Votto
5 Miguel Cabrera
6 Troy Tulowitzki
7 Prince Fielder
8 Adrian Gonzalez
9 Ryan Braun
10 Evan Longoria

by Eddie Mayrose

It was an interesting off season for free agents that had, formerly, been the faces of their franchises.  Since the Cardinals finished off the Rangers in the World Series, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and Jonathan Papelbon have all signed mega-deals and changed the landscape of their new teams as well as the ones they left.

While these four perennial All Stars are certainly the most notable of the players that are wearing different uniforms in 2012, there are many more that, when valued correctly, can go a long way to improving your squad this season.

Welcome to the Neighborhood

1) Michael Cuddyer, Rockies- Our favorite guy on this list.  Always a solid RBI guy in Minnesota, he moves to the hitter-friendly Coors Field with multiple eligibility including 2B.

2)  Michael Pineda, Yankees- Yanks’ GM Brian Cashman absolutely stole Pineda from the Mariners.  The move to New York brings the potential for 15-18 wins.

3) Gio Gonzalez, Nationals- Anyone following FantasySportsDirt knows that Moonlight is a big Gio fan. Even bigger in 2012, now that Gonzalez will be facing pitchers in the NL in front of a much stronger lineup than he was accustomed in Oakland.

4) Heath Bell, Marlins- These are exciting times in Miami, and Bell should be a huge beneficiary of the improved Marlins’ lineup.  Don’t be surprised if Heath returns 50 saves on your investment.

5) Carlos Beltran, Cardinals- Don’t forget that Beltran, finally healthy, was an All Star last season.  His struggles after being traded to San Francisco should only make him more of a bargain.

6) Michael Bourn, Braves- Normally, we shy away from chasing SB.  In Bourn’s case, though, he should see a nice spike in R and even RBI playing with the Braves.

7) Jesus Montero, Mariners- The other half of the Pineda trade, Montero showed a big bat during a September call up witrh the Yanks.  Don’t overvalue that small sample, however.

Chris Snyder, Astros- He’s struggled with back issues in Arizona and Pittsburgh,  but is still relatively young and will be in a wonderful hitter’s park.  Late in the draft, who doesn’t love a catcher that can give you 15 dingers?

9) Chris Sale, White Sox- Sale has been bounced around in Chicago’s bullpen for a few years.  Now, with a definite role, we expect his immense talent to emerge.

10) Casey McGehee, Pirates- After a breakout 2010, McGehee was abysmal in 2011.  In the final stages of your draft, he’s worth a gamble to rebound.

While we welcome the arrival of a new season,  there was a pall cast over the Graham household during the month of December with the news that Moonlight’s favorite sleeper, Jason Kubel, had signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Long a fixture on every Moonlight Fantasy roster, Kubel now moves to the National League where the lack of a DH and a crowded Arizona outfield will likely reduce his AB enough to keep him off most mixed-league rosters.

For now, Kubel is listed as the starting left fielder for the defending NL West champs and, given the money they’re paying him, will likely begin 2012 in the middle of the D’Backs lineup.  However, it’s a stretch to think that his rickety knees will hold up over the course of a full season.  Gone are those DH “days off” when Kubel got a chance to rest without missing AB’s.  Now, he’s a strong candidate to, at least, be left out of Sunday games, as well as many day games after night games.  All of this idle time could cost our boy as many as 75 AB; assuming he stays healthy for the entire campaign.

We all have our favorite sleepers- those guys that provide us with a safety net during the draft as positions become thin.  Bobby Carr, co-owner of the 40-Kane Fantasy Baseball League’s Master Batters, recalls his affinity for Tigers’ 2B Lou Whitaker.  “He was always there late in the draft for me.  His numbers were more than adequate, especially when I picked him, and knowing he’d be available allowed me to take productive players at other positions.  I used to joke that he posed with my family for our Christmas card picture.”

It was no different for me with Kubel.  I started following him as he rocketed through the Twins’ chain as their top hitting prospect; more so even than Justin Morneau,  Then, after a crippling knee injury nearly cost him his career, his comeback made him one of my favorite players.  He became a .300 hitter and 100 RBI guy on three Fantasy Championship teams, never for more than a 16th round pick.  Between Kubel and Johan Santana, the first Minnesota prospect I picked up out of the minors, I’ve become quite the Twins fan.

Make no mistake, Kubel will, absolutely, be a part of my 2012 roster despite the new uniform.   I owe him that much.  Besides, there’s always the possibility that the move out of Target Field will increase his offensive production.  It just won’t be as much fun now that he’s no longer a Twin.  Speaking of which, neither is Michael Cuddyer or Delmon Young.  Can any team dump three 100 RBI guys and not feel it?  I don’t think so.  It’ll be a long year in Minnesota, especially in the town of Chisholm, Moonlight’s hometown.

 Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten Fantasy Sleepers

1 – Paul Goldschmidt  Arizona Diamondbacks 1B

2- Jemile Weeks Oakland Athletics 2B

3- Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels OF

4- Jesus Montero Seattle Mariners C

5- Matt Moore Tampa Bay Rays P

6- Brett Lawrie Toronto Blue Jays 3B

7- Jose Tabata Pittsburgh Pirates OF

8- Anthony Rizzo San Diego Padres 1B

9- Devin Mesoraco Cincinnati Reds C

10- Bryce Harper Washington Nationals OF

Fantasy Baseball Owners are a superstitious lot.  If a certain preview magazine was purchased the year before a championship, you can bet that publication will be the first one off the rack every year.  That faded Daryl Strawberry jersey that you wear to every draft?  If Daryl helped you win in 1988, it’s common sense that his jersey needs to be worn at the draft in 2012. (Hope it was a button-down. ) So, then, if you’ve stumbled upon something that’s actually tangible, like a mathematical system for projecting pitchers’ injuries and underperformance, you guard it with your life.

Three years ago, in The Sporting News 2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview, (I’ve won 6 out of the last 9, I don’t read any other!) Brad Pinkerton wrote a terrific piece on young pitchers titled, Folding Aces.  In it, he analyzed the performance of  rising stars in the season after their stellar debuts.  He presented a formula for targeting those young hurlers that could reasonably be expected to turn up on the disabled list or suffer a disappointing campaign.  He had my interest when he presented those hurlers that violated his criteria in 2007.  Ian Kennedy, Dustin McGowan, Fausto Carmona, and Yovani Gallardo all turned out to be disappointing selections for Fantasy Baseball owners in 2008.

In  ’09,  Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Manny Parra  either underperformed or landed on the DL.  2010 saw Max Scherzer, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Rzepczynski, Tommy Hanson and Derek Holland disappointed to different degrees.

Last year, after doing the math, we targeted nine young hurlers that were safe bets to struggle and, sure enough, six of them did.  While Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner and Jaime Garcia starred, Brett Cecil, Jhoulys Chacin, Tommy Hanson, Mat Latos, Brian Matusz, and Jonathan Niese struggled, landed on the DL or both. So, what are these criteria and who made the list in 2011?

Pinkerton looked for pitchers, 25 and younger, that had experienced a jump of 30 innings pitched over their previous career high in pro ball. Next, he eliminated those who’d registered 200 IP in any Major League season or had exceeded 35 career starts. What was left was a roster of hurlers with the potential to destroy your season.  Now, it’s not a perfect indicator,as evidenced by the performances of Bumgarner, Garcia and Gonzalez .  What it does tell you, though, is that you’re running a big risk if you take more than one of the following guys.  As you can see, there may be trouble ahead for the Braves and Yankees.
Brandon Beachy- Atlanta Braves
Jeremy Hellickson- Tampa Bay Rays
Mike Minor- Atlanta Braves
Ivan Nova- New York Yankees
Michael Pineda- New York Yankees
Vance Worley- Philadelphia Phillies

Keep this formula close by, as you’ll need it to evaluate any rookies that make the big club in Spring Training.  Remember, the formula applies to IP on the professional level, so there will be a few that exceeded their previous high by 30 IP in the minor leagues that will be in Opening Day rotations.

Ten years ago, the professional sports world took a sabbatical after the attacks on the World Trade Center.  While it was absolutely the respectful thing to do, I remember how badly I wanted some kind of sporting event to take my mind off of the tragedy.  Today, the NFL carries out that mission, providing us the entertainment we may need to deal with such a sad, sad day.

Two months ago, we weren’t even sure this day would come; as the lockout was in full swing. Any prep work or Fantasy mock drafts seemed a little hollow, as the uncertainty of the season stole a little of the fun.  But, luckily, both parties succumbed to their greed and decided to amicably split the billions that we, the fans, provide.  So, on with the show!!!

Stars- They’re a prize package this weekend, as QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson face the Under-Manninged Colts.  Houston is primed for a worst to first divisional run, starting today; especially if Arian Foster can’t go…RB Knowshon Moreno is a Wagstaff favorite, poised for a big 2011.  He’ll show the Raiders exactly why in today’s opener.

Stiffs-  Don’t expect Baltimore to be overly impressed with the disco ball trophy  Steelers’ WR Hines Ward won on Dancing with the Stars.  He struggles mightily against the Ravens, a trend that will continue today… Cowboys’ WR Miles Austin is nursing a hammy; not the best condition for a stay on Revis Island… RB Reggie Bush will have to carry the load for the Dolphins, something he proved unsuited for in New Orleans- with a much better team around him.

Sleepers- We’ve been talking up Roy Helu for weeks now, so it’s time to put our monety where our mouth s.  Look for the Redskins’ rookie RB to have a very strong game against the injury riddled Giants’ D… We love how WR Greg Little is positioned in Cleveland.  Coming off a terrific pre season, he’ll be a favorite target of Colt McKoy.

Slippers- When the Not Farrugia League Draft came around to the fifth round, it was just too illogical for me to pass on WR Reggie Wayne. But the reason he lasted so long will be front and center today as Kerry Collins steps in for the injured Peyton Manning… If you thoought you had a steal when you grabbed Miami rookie RB Daniel Thomas, think again.  Not only will he be splitting time with Reggie Bush, but a hamstring that has him listed as questionable prompted the Dolphins to sign Larry Johnson, further crowding the Miami backfield.

“I know it’s the first week”, said Pad, ” but c’mon, Uncle Gil.  An ohfer?”   “I went to summer camp in Maine with the worst handicapper ever.  Couldn’t pick a winner in a one-horse race.  Even he would have gotten one right.”

This little Rife rift is something to watch, as the Locks have taken action against disappointing results in the past.  One suspects that, should Pad go to the bullpen, old standby, Johnny Duduguande, could make his 2011 debut.

What gives Pad the authority to make such a move?  “Hey, I’m the guy carrying this team.  That’s the nuts and bolts of it.  If Uncle Gil doesn’t like it,  let him sell cold cuts on the Jersey Shore!”

With that threat as motivation, Gil looks to turn things around this Saturday.

Locks of the Week (Season Record: 5-4)

Gil Lock (0-3)

Wisconsin -18 over Oregon State- The Beavers lost their home opener last week to Sacramento State.  Sacramento State!!  Before then, did anyone know that Sacramento State had a men’s team.  Wisconsin rolled over UNLV last week and will do the same to the aptly named Oregon State squad.

Notre Dame – 3 1/2 over Michigan-  I know all of the Irish boosters were embarrassed by Brian Kelly’s screaming last week but, maybe that’s the problem.  It’s about time someone lit a fire under this squad.  Notre Dame has a lot of talent and Michigan doesn’t.  It’s that simple.

Northern Illinois -5 1/2 over Kansas- Little conference against big conference here, which probably gives you a discount.  Northern Illinois has some big old country boys on their O line and they’ll run all over the Jayhawks.

Jill Lock (2-1)

Minnesota – New Mexico State over 50 1/2- New Mexico State is terrible but I’m not sure about Minnesota, either.  Almost laid the 18 1/2 but decided that neither will stop the other.

Alabama -10 over Penn State- It’s the same thing every year. Penn State beats up on some flag football team to open the season and I have to hear about it from this big-headed guy running the deli counter where I shop.  My sorority could beat Indiana State.  Alabama’s coach is way too handsome to lose to that really old guy from Penn State.
Half a pound of roast beef, please, and stick your Lions in your sock, Buckethead.

Oregon – 22 1/2 over Nevada- Oh my goodness, are the Ducks going to be mad after last week.  Nevada lost one of my favorite cutie-patooties, Colin Kapernick, to the NFL and will really miss him.  It’s going to be a long day for the Wolfpack.

Pad Lock (3-0)

Stanford – 20 1/2 over Duke-  I can’t believe that Duke can have such prominent programs in other sports and field a high school football team.  The Cardinal’s Andrew Luck will look to pad his Heisman resume while Stanford beats the Blue Devils by a Duke SAT score.

UCLA – 21 over San Jose State- Remember that kid in high school that spent most of his time stuffed in a locker by bullies?  In my school, it was this annoying little gnome named Philly Wrinkles.  Philly Wrinkles, meet San Jose State, possibly the nation’s worst team.

Arkansas – New Mexico over 51- If we learned anything from Bill Clinton is that they like to score in Arkansas.   Razorbacks may get the points themselves.

by Eddie Mayrose

The debate had raged throughout the summer. We’d grown used to the happy dilemma of choosing a name for a new baby, as it was, perhaps, the most exciting thing about expecting a child. None of us could wait for the November due date.  However, this time it was a little different.  This time, it wasn’t just my wife, Virginia, and me.  We now had four other opinions being tossed around the dinner table as our children, ages nine to fourteen, were each certain of their own ability to select the perfect name.

By late August, we were no closer to a decision.  It was then that Virginia, taking full advantage of her birthday privileges, put her foot down and announced to all of us that she had decided on a girl’s name – Caroline.  She then decreed that I would be responsible for selecting a boy’s name, and that she would abide by my decision without question.  Unfortunately for me, I didn’t have a particular name in mind.

September 11, 2001 was a day that boasted, in the words of  Dr. Archibald “Moonlight” Graham, “a sky so blue that it hurts your eyes just to look at it.”  It was the last one I ever saw without being reminded of tragedy.  None of us will ever forget the terrible events of that Tuesday morning, so I will not recount them here. Our lives were changed that day, in ways that we could have never imagined.  But, through all the misery, a wonderfully inspiring story about an angel here on Earth provided a name for a beautiful little boy.

I didn’t know FDNY Captain Timothy Stackpole.  Never even met him, even though we shared a number of mutual friends.  Four months earlier, I had read about his miraculous return to active duty after suffering terrible injuries in a fire that claimed the lives of two of his colleagues.  I had also read about him on September 10th, as he had just been recognized as Irishman of the Year at The Great Irish Fair in Brooklyn that weekend.  However, it was everything I read and heard after he was lost that filled my heart.

At the time, I worked on the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange.  We had been locked in when the first tower came down and had spent a few hours dealing with the worst fear I had ever known.  Thankfully,  we were many, and the camaraderie and support got us through.  We could only imagine what was going on just six blocks away and, sadly, even our darkest thoughts fell short of the reality.

In those next few days, as we learned the names of all of those we lost, Timothy Stackpole’s story became very prominent.  My very close friend, Joe Berg, informed me that he had gone to high school at  St. Francis Prep a year behind Timmy and was devastated by the news. “This was the best guy that ever graduated from the Prep”,  he told me.  “He was everything that was good about the Prep.”   Even though he hadn’t seen him in more than two decades, Joe drove more than an hour to attend the wake;  standing on line for another ninety minutes.  “I didn’t know anyone there”, he said, “but I just had to go.”

As Captain Stackpole was a legend in the Department, there was no shortage of stories about him in the days that followed.  The one that touched me, though, was an interview with his wife, Tara, just two days after the attacks.  The way she spoke of her husband and treasured the time they had together, actually made me smile through the tragedy.

“What a great marriage we had,” said Tara. “People had no idea what they were missing. What I had. When he got hurt in ’98, he should have died.  It was a miracle that he didn’t.  I believe it was part of God’s plan that he’d have three more years to touch people’s lives.  He changed people’s lives by how he lived.”  Even now, ten years after the fact, I am in awe of the love they shared.

Two weeks later, Tim was eulogized by his only daughter, Kaitlyn, at his funeral.   “I can’t imagine my life without you in it. I’ll always know where to find you: in our hearts.  My whole life, I’ve always known what a good person you are.  I believe God gave us three more years. There is a little bit of you in all of us, especially in Mommy, the boys and me,” she said.  “I love you.  Thank you, Daddy.”

I saved both of the newspapers in which those stories appeared and brought them home to my family.  I  told them that, were we to be blessed with a little boy,  his name would be Timothy.  Not so much to memorialize Timmy Stackpole as to inspire my son to be a good friend, husband and father.  To become a man of faith and service;  one who guides others down the same path.  To be a man that shares so much love with the people in his life that they are keenly aware of the good fortune that was theirs to know him, even in their deepest grief.

Timothy McGee Mayrose was born on November 6th, 2001.   He’s a very smart, kind and polite young man.  He loves sports, his dog, Smalls, and Harry Potter.  Mostly, though, he treasures the time he spends with his very large family.  We talk about how he was named all the time.  I think Timmy Stackpole would like him a lot.

Shortly after he was born, I wrote a letter to the Stackpole family to tell them about my Tim.   Even though I didn’t want to be intrusive,  I did want them to know that their wonderful father and husband was a role model for my son.  The contents of that letter are too personal to be written here.  What I will share, though, is my last thought to them; one that resonates within me today as powerfully as it did during those terrible weeks and months.  “God Bless our Timothys.”