by Moonlight Graham

In 2003, in an attempt to regenerate fan interest just a year after a lack of available pitchers forced MLB Commissioner Bud Selig to declare the All Star Game a tie, Baseball’s hierarchy decreed that the Mid-Summer Classic would now determine home field advantage in the World Series. It wasn’t already bad enough that the rosters were watered down by the requirement that each team, no matter how bad, must be represented; now, a player from a second division club could have a hand in deciding the outcome of the sport’s premier event months in advance.

While the move was and is opposed by many, I never really had a problem with it.  Not because I agree with the concept; it’s completely ridiculous to think I’m staying up that late to watch Garrett Jones of the Pittsburgh Pirates face Kansas City Royals’ closer Joakim Soria because I’d like the Mets to have home field if they get that far.  However, because the old system of alternating the privilege was also completely without merit, I figured, “Who cares?”  Until I realized that the new policy actually gives mindless fans the opportunity to hurt their team’s shot at a championship; often at the prompting of it’s own front office. We’ve all been to the ballpark in the early part of the season and heard the huge pitch to vote for the hometown boys.  Actually, you don’t even have to attend a game anymore, as on-line balloting has given everyone a voice.  “Send Joe Blow to Los Angeles for the All Star Game”, blare the ads.  “Forget the stats, vote for our guys!”  On the surface, a nice marketing strategy, but one that could prove fatal to a championship run. 

The Philadelphia Phillies have won two consecutive National League pennants and, despite being ravaged by injuries, are still within striking distance in the NL East. There aren’t many Phillies fans that aren’t expecting a third straight World Series appearance.  Yet, right down to the last week, fan balloting had 3B Placido Polanco, SS Jimmy Rollins and 2B Chase Utley in the starting lineup.  Polanco, hiting .318 with 4 HR and 27 RBI, is a far cry from New York Mets’ third sacker David Wright or Scott Rolen of the Cincinnati Reds; two Gold Glovers also boasting BA over .300 while sitting near the top of the league’s RBI standings.  Rollins has missed all but twenty games this season while Utley is going through the worst campaign of his career.  How does a Philadelphia baseball fan better the National League’s chances of winning the game by voting for any of them?  Rest assured, however, that if Charlie Manuel’s boys open the Series on the road, every cheese steak moron that backed “J-Roll” will be whining for all he’s worth.   And not a soul in the Phillies’ front office will realize that their ad campaign was probably a bad idea.

Fantasy News and Notes

Although there hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner since Carl Yazstremski in 1967, there may actually be a three man race for the honor in the AL this year.  Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera leads the loop in HR and RBI and is fifth in BA.  Rangers’ OF Josh Hamilton is fourth in the batting race while sitting just 4 HR and 5 RBI back of Cabrera while, in Minnesota, Justin Morneau has as many dingers as Hamilton and is third in BA.  He’ll have to pick up the RBI, though, as he’s more than 10 behind the top spot… Don’t be too quick to write off the first half of Blue Jays’ OF/3B Jose Bautista.  THe HR may have tailed off and his BA was never stellar, but his 49 BB indicate he’s still got a plan at the dish…Hank Blalock was released by the Rays to make room for Gabe Kapler.  Guess it’s really over when a team wants Kapler instead of anyone… Let me get this straight.  The Seattle Mariners, dead last in the AL West, may be looking to move Cliff Lee but gave up prospects for Russell Branyan?

Buy Low

- Is anyone still paying attention to the Baltimore Orioles?  If your league isn’t, call the guy that owns Adam Jones and make a deal.  After a miserable start, Jones used a hot June to raise his BA to .274 and now has 13 HR…This may be your last chance to grab Moonlight’s favorite sleeper, Jason Kubel.  His bat has warmed with the weather in Minnesota, his BA s climbing and he’s on pace for 90+ RBI.

Sell High

- After a dugout confrontation for not hustling in Tampa, B.J. Upton was out of the lineup with, what was called,  a hamstring issue.  I’m not buying. This is a guy that melted last year when Joe Maddon dropped him in the order.  Expect the same dropoff if he’s feuding with teammates… Angels’ RHP Joel Pineiro has won five straight.  A solid pitcher, he’s never been dominant and you won’t miss him too much; especially if you can use his hot streak to secure a big bat.

Grab Bag

- Cincinnati Reds’ rookie Travis Wood debuted yesterday with seven strong innings.  Not a big K guy, he’s been an ERA and WHIP monster all through the Minor Leagues.  If he stays in Dusty Baker’s rotation, grab him.

Drop Zone

- If you haven’t shed yourself of Rockies’ 1B Todd Helton, do so, now.  Having never struck out more than 80 times in any of the last seven seasons, he’s now at 50 and complaining of a bad back.

Sick Bay

-  Had to share this one. In the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie League, Jack Sullivan’s Big Steins have been bitten by the injury bug; often with comical results.  The laughter from the rest of the league had not yet died down after Kendry Morales was lost for the season while celebrating a HR when Luke Scott, another Big Stein, pulled a hammy rounding first after going deep.  The way I figure, if Jack’s guys keeping hitting dingers, he’s got no chance to win.

by Moonlight Graham

Once upon a time, before the evolution of the internet, Fantasy Baseball information was hard to come by.  News regarding critical issues such as day-to-day injury situations, rookie callups and even trade rumors were rarely current.  Often, it was necessary to directly call the MLB club in question but, even then, it was as likely as not that you’d reach someone that didn’t already frown on the entire concept of Fantasy Baseball.  Which brings me to the kid in Milwaukee.  I  never got his name so, I couldn’t say if he’s still in baseball but, wherever he is, there’s a former, public relations intern of the Brewers that, probably, still curses ole’ Moonlight at the very mention of Dan Plesac.

Sometime in the early nineties, Plesac, the Brew Crew closer, was nursing a bad elbow while a member of Moonlight’s Master Batters.  After a few absences from the daily box scores and no mention of an injury, I placed my first call to the unsuspecting intern.  Surprisingly, he really didn’t seem all that interested in the fact that a tight Saves race might decide my league.  He was equally unsympathetic when I explained that I couldn’t pick up a replacement unless Plesac was disabled by Milwaukee.

So, I asked, “Hey, what’s up with Plesac?”  “Is he going on the DL?”  “Not to my knowledge”, came the reply and thus started a daily correspondence over the course of the next six days.  Exasperated, he finally admitted to me that Plesac was likely out for awhile but, as rosters were about to expand on September 1st, would not go on the DL.  If he’d have only told me that in the first place, I’d have had another relief pitcher and he; an enjoyable week.

As the Rotisserie Baseball world has evolved, that episode has become more and more ironic to me.  Here I was, being sneered at and stonewalled by the MLB franchise owned by Bud Selig, who would become the money hungry commissioner that recognized Fantasy Baseball for the cash cow it is.  By charging exclusive rights fees to online services run by CBS, ESPN and Yahoo, Major League Baseball has helped advance an industry now so stuffed with the very news it once protected, that Fantasy Baseball owners must discern the Good info from the Bad and the Ugly.  What follows is a Moonlight Guide through the media.

The Good
If you’re in a league that holds Minor League players, you’ll want to listen to Grant Paulsen, host of MLB Network Radio’s Minors and Majors on XM channel 175.  Paulsen, just 22 himself, is as impressive as the young phenoms that appear on his show.  Infinitely more knowledgeable than his experience would have you believe, he balances MLB analysis with guest spots featuring the top prospects from each organization; kids he’s obviously taken the time to meet before they go on the air. It’s a funny, informative two hours each Sunday morning at 8AM that’ll give you an edge and put a smile on your face.

Once a daily staple for Fantasy Baseball players, The Fantasy Focus, hosted by Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson, disappeared from the MLB channel on XM radio in 2009.  Now Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today, Erickson and co-host Chris List share their expertise on XM channel 241 and Sirius channel 125 from 11 AM to 2 PM EDT.  Long a Tout Wars opponent of stats guru Ron Shandler, Erickson has a great feel for Fantasy trends, supports his views with statistics without becoming married to them and enjoys a seamless and often funny banter with the equally likable List.

The Bad
When MLB Network launched last year, it seemed like a natural fit for the Roto industry.  However, it took more than a year for The Fantasy 411 to debut. Hosted by Mike Siano and Cory Schwartz, the show is a disappointment in both its insight and timing.  The opinions offered are rarely better than any you’d already made, yourself and the 5 PM EDT slot does not allow for transactions involving day games.  What a shame that the network doesn’t cater to what is obviously it’s largest audience.

The Ugly

Imagine you’ve landed a date with the prettiest girl in school and she shows up wearing curlers and a house dress.  That’s, essentially, what MLB Network has accomplished by simulcasting its nightly Quick Pitch on its Sirius XM channels.  Harold Reynolds, possibly the best analyst in all of sports, becomes impossible to follow if you’re listening to his TV broadcast on the radio.  Discussing highlights and making demonstrations you can’t see, Reynolds and his cohorts instantly become a terrible listen.  Amazing that anyone earning his living in the profession would sign off on such a disaster.

It happens every spring.  MLB clubs head into the new season filled with all of the promise and excitement that a new year brings.  Injured players are healthy, dissapointing performance are forgotten and optimism rules the day. Unfortunately, many also begin the new campaign focused more on finances than the standings and thus, head into battle without a full arsenal of weaponry.

Without going into all of the legal issues surrounding the MLB arbitration process, suffice to say that the most important element is service time; specifically, days on a Major League roster.  If a rookie that would normally be eligible for arbitration after two years is held back until the end of May, he cannot be credited with the service time required for a full season.  Therefore, the big payday usually gained through arbitration is delayed by a full calendar year.

On the surface, it seems like sound, fiscal planning by the big clubs; a strategy carried out for years.  However, after drilling down a little deeper, you discover a very seedy. three-card-monte type of scam with MLB fans as its victims.   While these franchises knowingly and intentionally fail to put their best product on the field, their loyal supporters continue to be charged top ticket prices for an inferior product.  The nerve required to perpetrate this bait-and-switch is exceeded only by the gall needed by the GM to keep a straight face as he proclaims the player in question to suddenly be of Major League skill level at the same time the deadline passes.

Over the course of the last two weeks, four such prospects; each having had some aspect of their game questioned by management, took up prominent positions with the parent club without so much as a small hiccup.  In San Francisco, Buster Posey seems to stroke two hits a day as he’s become the best run producer on the offensively challenged Giants.  Michael Stanton, professional baseball’s leading home run hitter with 21, has seamlessly worked his way into the Marlins’ lineup with 5 RBI over his first 5 games.  Friday, the Indians called up Carlos Santana whose .310 BA and 51 RBI apparently were not enough to unseat the light hitting Lou Marson over the first two months.  Santana, incidentally, was the Tribe’s number three hitter all weekend and poked his first HR on Saturday.

Then, of course, there’s Stephen Strasburg.  Nationals’ brass, somehow managing not to laugh, voiced their concern about the phenom’s ability to pitch from the stretch.  As he ripped through Double a and Triple A, the pressure to promote him grew; but not enough to make the Nats’ flinch.  Finally, on June 8th, Strasburg got the call and lit up the baseball world with a 14 K performance.  Good luck finding anyone that believes Strasburg couldn’t have done that in April.

Three decades ago, MLB Commissioner Bowie Kuhn would have stepped in and put an end to this fraud under the credo that it was not in the best interest of the game.  Unfortunately, today’s commissioner, Bud Selig, is the errand boy for ownership, having been a member of the club, himself.  As a matter of fact, the Milwaukee Brewers, run by Selig’s daughter, pulled the same nonsense three years ago with Ryan Braun. As it’s unlikely that an empty suit such as Selig will ever rule against his brother owners, expect the nonsense to continue; while fans pay through the nose to watch inferior talent.

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Buy Low- Here’s an idea.  Find a Yankee fan, commiserate with him about Javy Vasquez’s high ERA and the silly notion that he can’t win in New York. Then, steal him away and laugh all the way to September.  Vasquez is a strikeout machine who’s won four straight.  That he pitches for an offensive juggernaut makes him more attractive.  In Houston, Carlos Lee is in the midst of rebounding from an awful start.  He’s still only at .225, so you might find a frustrated trading partner.

Sell High- Tampa Bay’s Carlos Pena recently homered in six straight.  Pray that it camouflages his miserable .185 BA and dump him on the unsuspecting.  With the wheels coming off of the White Sox bandwagon, look for Bobby Jenks to be moved. A marginal closer with a poor K ratio, Jenks is more likely to be used as a setup man should he be traded.

Grab Bag- With Jason Bartlet on the DL in Tampa, 2B Sean Rodriguez has begun to emerge.  The big name for the Rays in last year’s Scott Kazmir deal, Rodriguez is a power hitter who’s lifted his average to .270.  Gaby Sanchez has done nothing but hit during his rise through the Marlins, system.  Now, he’s in the two hole, feasting on a diet of fastballs hitting in front of Hanley Ramirez.

Drop Zone- Time to pull the plug on Aaron Hill.  It’s a mystery, now, as to what was in Toronto’s water last year but, whatever it was, it’s gone. He no longer warrants a spot in your lineup. Ever since rumors surfaced about possible PED use, Colorado’s Todd Helton has become more of a high average hitter with little pop.  Now, the average is gone, too, rendering him almost useless.

You know you’ve had a good run as a Fantasy Baseball League when you’ve been around to see the entire career of a Hall of Famer like Ken Griffey Jr. Long the property of the Monroe Pearls of the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie League, Griffey was one of the reasons the league decided to no longer retain players from year to year. “I’d like a shot at Junior”, was a common refrain, “why should Fat Cat get to keep him forever?” Griffey, a first-ballot Cooperstown entrant regardless of the injuries that plagued the latter part of his career, was one of the game’s greats; certainly one of Fantasy Baseball’s greatest, and, now that he’s decided to retire,  will be missed. However, he was not the only giant lost to the Fantasy Baseball world as Forte Bellino, long-time owner of the U.B.40’s, U.B. Jews and charter member of the HK Roto League as well as its first champion, passed away suddenly at the sinfully young age of fifty eight.  A high school teacher, administrator and coach, Fortunato left behind legions of family, students, colleagues and waiters (his favorites)  that he filed under the one category that mattered to him most: friend.

Known to many simply as “B”, his legacy spread nationwide as his young charges grew into middle age, forged successful careers and became parents.  It was a secret to no one that he had, literally, thousands of friends yet, no matter how crowded the venue, his patented, “What’s up there, son?”, made you feel as if he’d arrived specifically to see you.  While everyone has a few hundred “B” stories, those told about his time in our Fantasy Baseball League are, far and away, my favorites.

Founded in 1988, the HK League preceded the website era.  No CBSSportsline there; our stats were compiled by a guy on Long Island working out of his garage. The biggest problem we faced was determining which owner was the first to claim a free agent.  The solution, as it evolved, was to install a phone line in someone’s house, get him to volunteer to keep track of the daily transactions and change the outgoing message on the answering machine so that everyone else in the league was current. It was in this role that Forte developed something of a cult following.

Not content to simply drone on about the acquisition of Mark Gubicza or the dismissal of Tim Laudner, Forte quickly expanded the format. There were trivia questions, birthday and anniversary wishes, thoroughbred handicapping, predictions about anything from elections to the Academy awards, movie critiques and, of course, the thing for which he became most famous, restaurant reviews. There were more than a few times that I called in and, by the time he was done, forgot the move I’d wanted to make.

His performances became legendary.  At one time, Forte counted twenty daily callers that had absolutely nothing to do with our league.  Friends and acquaintances began to call and passed the number along to others.  My personal favorite was the telemarketer from Wisconsin. Having reached the league line without knowing the nature of its existence, he enjoyed that day’s message so much that he jotted the number down and called every day for two seasons. And everyone looked forward to a transaction involving former MLB pitcher Kenny Rogers; as it prompted B into his favorite ditty, “Gotta know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away, know when to run…”

We’ll all miss Forte Bellino for a very long time as he was someone who, through his own example, inspired people in all walks of life to be better men and women.  By extension, their good work will extend his legacy forever. I just wish I could still pick up the phone and learn where to find the best German restaurant in Queens. Clarence, the guardian angel,  told George Bailey that “no man is a failure who has friends.”  Congratulations, then, Forte, on your wonderful life.  “What’s up there, son?”

We’ve all heard the opinion espoused by Fantasy Baseball Owners everywhere: No championships are won on Draft Day. However, whether you agree with that or not, most titles ARE won in April. Too many of us put in a ton of work preparing for the Fantasy Baseball Draft only to make the fatal mistake of ignoring our squads during the season’s first few weeks. Don’t be one of those guys.

Every year, even in the deepest of leagues, there are Major League Baseball players on the verge of a Fantasy Breakout season that go undrafted. Last season, alone, Miguel Montero and David Aardsma were just two who were integral parts of many Fantasy League championships despite being left unselected on draft day. The key for you, as an owner, is to identify those hidden gems as early as possible and incorporate them into your daily lineup.

That’s only half the battle, however, as t is just as critical to cut ties with drafted players not performing up to expectations. Daily perusal of the box scores and injury reports is the first step in this process; followed by the much more difficult one that forces you to admit you may have been wrong about a player. Once the draft is over, forget preferences and simply evaluate performance.

Kansas City’s Gil Meche may be back as early as Sunday if a mid-week bullpen session goes painlessly. However, he’s still just an AL-only option at this point… In Baltimore, Miguel Tejada’s Opening Day home in the cleanup spot may not be permanent. Make note of his 3B eligibility after 20 games… Do not be swayed by reports from Los Angeles that long time prospect Brandon Wood is finally ready to produce. He looked lost during the first two games of the Minnesota series and may simply be a 4A player… Angel’s LHP Scott Kazmir (right) is on course to start his first game next week vs. the Yankees…OF Alex Rios’ strong camp and first week have many White Sox teammates expecting big things. Fantasy Owners, however, will remember two straight disastrous seasons before jumping on his bandwagon… While Jon Rauch has been given the closer job in Minnesota, don’t forget that he struggled in the same role as a National and failed to emerge as the stopper in Arizona despite a muddled bullpen situation. Matt Guerrier is the Twins’ best reliever and one whom Ron Gardenhire won’t hesitate to call should Rauch falter… Oakland’s Trevor Cahill has been hampered by a sore shoulder since last September and saw the pain worsen this spring…With the release of Jack Cust, the A’s turned their backup C and DH roles over to Jake Fox. Given the injury history of current DH Eric Chavez, Fox, already eligible at  OF and 3B, could be a nice stash in an AL-only league…In Seattle, C Rob Johnson says he’s healthy after three, off-season surgeries to alleviate hip and wrist problems. The long time prospect and new starting backstop drilled an Opening Day HR… If Jays’ 3B Edwin Encarnacion has his usual slow start, look for Toronto to hand the job to rookie Brett Wallace…Rangers’ 2B Ian Kinsler is eligible to return from an ankle sprain on Saturday but looks like he’ll be out awhile longer… Be wary of owning Marlins’ starting pitchers as their defense, especially on the infield, seems like a baseball version of slapstick comedy… Franklin Morales may hold on to the Rockies’ closer job for longer than expected as Huston Street made the dreaded visit to Dr. James Andrews this week regarding his sore right shoulder… Astros’ 1B Lance Berkman has had his knee drained five times but is still hampered by swelling. He’s on the DL with no date set for his return… Erik Bedard is said to be ahead of schedule in his recovery from shoulder surgery and could be back in the Seattle rotation as early as June.

Fantasy Baseball News and Notes

Buy Low

- As a full time DH, Vladimir Guerrero is more likely to remain healthy in 2010. If so, he’ll get a huge boost from hitting in the middle of the powerful Rangers’ lineup… San Diego’s Kyle Blanks, whose 10 HR last season came in just 148 AB, posted a .407 BA this spring and landed the cleanup spot behind Adrian Gonzalez.

Sell High

- Can’t understand how smart Fantasy guys continue to draft Cubs’ RHP Carlos Zambrano (right).  He’s still out of shape, (despite losing fifteen pounds), has seen a three year drop in dominance and battles emotional instability. Talk up his weight loss and dump him on anybody who didn’t notice he got shelled on Opening Day… Toronto’s Jason Frasor, who inherited the closer’s role by default in ‘09 when Scott Downs was injured, blew the save in Monday’s opener vs. Texas.  Don’t expect Cito Gaston to be patient with him, especially with Kevin Gregg and a healthy Downs on the roster.

Grab Bag

- Twins’ OF Delmon Young had a strong camp and opened the season with a HR vs. the Angels. Don’t forget that, despite his struggles since arriving in Minnesota, he does have a 90+ RBI season already on his resume…Reds’ 3B Scott Rolen had a terrific ‘09, hitting .305 while splitting time between Toronto and Cincinnati. While he is always an injury risk, he’s in a great hitter’s park and looks very strong.

Drop Zone

- RHP Jake Westbrook threw four wild pitches in Cleveland’s opener. Lack of command is the biggest obstacle for a pitcher coming back from shoulder surgery; something Westbrook has yet to overcome. He should not be on your roster even in an AL-only format… The catching situation in Colorado’ with Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo splitting time equally, devalues each of the platoon mates. Avoid both… If Jays’ 3B Edwin Encarnacion has his usual slow start, look for Toronto to hand the job to rookie Brett Wallace…

There was a huge shift in the universe last week as the boys from the Hausier’s Krowedum Fantasy Baseball League sat down at the Manor Restaurant for their annual draft.  The three time defending champion Master Batters, huge proponents of spending early picks on outfielders, turned their attention instead to the new position of power in Fantasy Baseball;  the Corner Infield; especially First Base.

That Evan Longoria was the object of the Batters’ affection in the first round of their Fantasy Baseball Draft was indication of a huge change at the top of Fantasy Baseball rankings as well as the direction in which many Fantasy Baseball owners are headed this season in assembling their teams.  To be sure, studs still reside at the top of the Outfield list but not in the abundance with which we’ve become accustomed over recent years.

“You have to adjust on the fly, both before and during a Fantasy Draft”, said Batters’ owner, Bobby Carr.  “We’ve made our living by loading up on Outfielders before people realized waiting was foolish.  But, this year, that theory just didn’t hold up.  We’d have been much weaker had we waited on the Corner Infielders than the outfield.  We just thought we’d be much stronger with Longoria and Justin Upton than with Matt Kemp and Aramis Ramirez.”

Now, who is Moonlight to question a squad that has won six of its league’s last eight titles?  Let’s take a look at the Outfielders available in 2010.

Fantasy Baseball Studs

Since his call-up in 2008, Ryan Braun has put up the same numbers as Alex Rodriguez. With few exceptions, Braun should be the fourth pick in most drafts. Matt Holliday re-upped with St. Louis after lighting up the NL Central following his mid-season acquisition last year.  Expect even more production as Holliday takes his spot between Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick in the Cards’ order.

Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Seattle’s Franklin Gutierrez is a 27 year old with 20-20 potential who’ll bat at the top of the Mariners’ order. It’s amazing to see him at the bottom of many mock drafts.  Take advantage.  A disappointing 2009 has driven down the value of Reds’ prospect Jay Bruce. Yet, despite missing two months with a broken wrist, he popped 23 HR.  He’s in a great hitters’ park and still just 23.  Focus on his strong September and scoop him late.

Fantasy Baseball Slippers

In Tampa, B.J. Upton hit 24 HR in ‘07 then 20 combined over the last two years.  He spent ‘09 in Joe Maddon’s doghouse and then some in the #9 hole.  Don’t get caught betting on a turnaround.  “Manny being Manny”  now looks more like a mediocre outfielder. The Dodgers proved last year that they can win without the aging, disinterested Manny Ramirez and will likely push him aside in deference to Kemp, Andre Ethier and James Loney.

Fantasy Baseball Stiffs

- Despite tremendously consistent numbers over the last five years, Jermaine Dye remains an unsigned free agent.  Look for him to sign with a contender as a fourth outfielder.  Jack Cust has always been a late round safety ney for anyone in need of power.  Not anymore; as Cust was released last week by the A’s.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten Fantasy Outfielders

Ryan Braun
Matt Holliday
Matt Kemp
Grady Sizemore
Justin Upton
Jason Bay
Jayson Werth
Shin Soo Choo
Carl Crawford
Adam Lind

No position has undergone more change over the last decade than the Middle Infield. Long a collection of slap hitting, base stealers and the occasional power guy, it saw drastic change with the emergence of big guns like Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Jeff Kent and Barry Larkin.  Even marginal, late round options like Jose Valentin were good for better than 20 HR.

However, retirement, injury and position change have all been factors in depleting the ranks of the Middle Infielders that’ll give you a boost in the power department.  While some do remain, (Hanley Ramirez and Chase Utley will cost you a first rounder), for the most part, many Fantasy Baseball owners will settle for the mid-round options that produce low, double-digit HR’s, a solid BA and a decent number of SB.  The trick is, to find that one player who could break the mold and give you a top tier performance for a second tier price.

Fantasy Stars

-  Unless you’ve got one of the first two picks, you can forget Hanley Ramirez.  After that, Troy Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes top the Shortstop list but neither is a sure thing. Tulo comes off a terrific season but Fantasy Baseball owners still bear the burn marks from his disastrous ‘08 season.  New York Mets’ star, Reyes, is not only coming off of a campaign lost to injury but was just cleared to play after a thyroid condition sidelined him for most of camp.  Don’t reach for either.  On the other side of the bag, Utley and Ian KInsler are the cream of the crop but Cincinnati Reds’ second sacker, Brandon Phillips, may be the best value.  He’s a guaranteed 20-20 from a position where that’s rare and he bats cleanup.  Going with that theory, we’d also have to add Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees, as he’s been moved to the five hole of that very potent lineup.

Fantasy Sleepers

- Cleveland’s Asdrubal Cabrera had a terrific season and gives you the added benefit of dual eligibility.  Look for him to ring up double digit HR.  Rickie Weeks makes his annual appearance on the Moonlight Fantasy Sleeper list; this time coming off of a wrist injury.  He opened ‘09 stronger than he ever has, only to be felled, once again, by injury.  He’s been healthy throughout the spring and, at 27, could finally deliver the production Milwaukee’s been waiting for since he first came up.  As late as he’ll go, his 20-20- potential makes him worth a selection.

Fantasy Slippers

- The Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins continues to go relatively high for a guy whose stats have slipped so much in two years.  While he’s still a top option at the position, his sub .300 OBP last season is cause for serious concern.  Let someone else reach for him too early. In Baltimore, Brian Roberts is battling back problems that have plagued him throughout camp and will likely cost him SB when he returns.

Fantasy Stiffs

- Even in an NL only league, do everything you can to avoid Luis Castillo.  The BA and SB he posted last year, modest as it was, will disappear as he moves back behind Jose Reyes and gives up AB to sacrifice bunts. Forget a bump in RBI in the new/old spot, as outfielders play at Little League depth when he’s up and no one can score from second on a base hit.  At shortstop, Seattle’s Jack Wilson simply can’t hit or get on base anymore.  He slumped to .250/.290 in those categories last year and failed to reach the 100 hit mark.  Stick a fork in old Jack.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten Fantasy Middle Infielders

Hanley Ramirez                                            Chase Utley

Troy Tulowitzki                                            Ian Kinsler

Jose Reyes                                                  Brandon Phillips

Ben Zobrist                                                  Aaron Hill

Yunel Escobar                                               Dustin Pedroia

Jimmy Rollins                                                Ben Zobrist

Derek Jeter                                                  Jose Lopez

Jason Bartlett                                               Brian Roberts

Alexei Ramirez                                              Rickie Weeks

Stephen Drew                                               Dan Uggla

If you’re a succesful Fantasy Baseball player, you know that it’s nearly impossible to finish near the top of the standings without having power at the corners. Unless you’ve secured significant pop at both First Base and Third Base, it’s a good bet you’ll be one of the first in your league looking to make a trade.

A quick glance at the top of your 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft sheets should reveal quite an imbalance between the two slots. You’ll probably have as many as twelve first tier options and a number of second and third tier guys capable of giving you 20+ HR and 90+ RBI. At third base, however, the pickins’ grow slim. There are but five top tier selections to be made; six if you’re confident that David Wright can bounce back in CitiField. As the talent at the Hot Corner begins to thin, you’ll find yourself scrambling to find adequate options. Good luck.

The solution? Well, even though Moonlight’s First Commandment tells us to never, ever draft for position in the first few rounds, it might be wise to grab an elite third sacker early as long as his stats are not dwarfed by another available player.

Stars

At First Base, we all know the cream of the crop, as Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira should all be gone by the middle of the second round. There is a group of studs, however, who fall to the fourth round and beyond in most mocks that may actually return more value than the aforementioned stars, if only that they’ll be selected so much later. Give a long look to Justin Morneau, Adrian Gonzalez, Derek Lee and Adam Dunn. Across the diamond, Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Pablo Sandoval and Mark Reynolds lead the pack. Reynolds and Sandoval might also be eligible at 1B in your league but you’d be silly to use them in that slot.

Sleepers

Take advantage of your last opportunity to grab Billy Butler and Joey Votto in any round after the second. These two young superstars will rocket to the top of the rankings in 2011. Gordon Beckham is a star on the rise for the White Sox who’ll be at 2B this year but still carry 3B eligibility. In Oakland, Kevin Kouzmanoff is happy to be away from pitcher friendly Petco Park, where he somehow managed 18 HR and 88 RBI.

Slippers

You won’t find Moonlight among those that think David Wright’s stats will return to their old levels. He’s still a star, but 20 HR, and not 30, may be the max in his new home. Lance Berkman had minor knee surgery last weekend and will miss two to four weeks. His numbers slipped badly last year and the Astros have a lot of talent in the Minors.

Stiffs

Both of our stiffs are getting their mail in Seattle these days. At 1B, Casey Kotchman doesn’t have nearly enough pop to be considered and should go undrafted in a mixed league while 3B Chone Figgins will have you scrambling to make up HR and RBI all year. Avoid both.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten Fantasy Corner Infielders

Albert Pujols                                                 Alex Rodriguez

Prince Fielder                                                Evan Longoria

Mark Teixeira                                                Mark Reynolds

Miguel Cabrera                                              Ryan Zimmerman

Ryan Howard                                                David Wright

Billy Butler                                                    Pablo Sandoval

Justin Morneau                                             Kevin Youkilis

Joey Votto                                                   Aramis Ramirez

Derek Lee                                                     Chipper Jones

Adrian Gonzalez                                         Gordon Beckham

by Moonlight Graham

Think back to last year’s Fantasy Baseball Draft when you sat at the table clicking your heels, hoping for Geovany Soto to get through to the round in which you had him slotted.  Coming off a season so stellar that he garnered the Rookie of the Year award, Soto was even more enticing to Fantasy Baseball owners because his 23 HR and 86 RBI came from behind the plate; traditionally the weakest Fantasy spot.  But like many before him, (remember Rick Wilkins?), Soto failed to build on his initial success.  Instead of the 30-100 season many expected, his was an injury riddled exercise in disappointment.

Unfortunately, offensive inconsistency behind the dish is an annual pitfall for Fantasy Baseball players.  Two years ago, Jorge Posada was a Moonlight selection primarily because, as I said at the time, “the guy plays every day.”  Almost as soon as I said that, Posada suffered the first major injury of his career and was lost for the season.  However, the undrafted Kelly Shoppach came from nowhere to post 21 HR and help my march to a title.  In the same season, many owners saw their chances go up in flames as Victor Martinez struggled while Chris Snyder supplied 16 HR from the waiver wire.  Even last year, Miguel Montero’s breakthrough campaign threw a lifeline to a number of Soto’s victims.  Starting to recognize a pattern?  Try not to get sucked in by the next “great” catcher and, instead, identify a few consistent producers who’ll come cheap but won’t blow up your season.

Chief among these candidates is the Angels’ Mike Napoli, an annual member of Moonlight’s Master Batters in the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie Baseball League.  Despite semi-splitting time in the Angels’ lineup with the offensively challenged Jeff Mathis, Napoli has posted back to back 20 HR seasons.  He’s a .270 hitter with a catcher-friendly .350 OBP whose name will rarely be called before the 15th round of any mixed draft.  He’ll even throw in 4 or 5 SB for good measure.  His stats may not be as sexy as Martinez, Martin or McCann, but he’ll deliver what you expect at about a third of the price.

2010 Catcher Ratings

Stud- Joe Mauer’s ridiculous MVP season was so good, it eliminates anyone else for consideration in this category.

Stars- Look for Matt Wieters to build on his scorching September, Victor Martinez is more attractive because of his First Base eligibility and Brian McCann is Atlanta’s best hitter.

Sleepers- Kurt Suzuki had a terrific season that went largely unnoticed while Miguel Montero looks for an even bigger season now that the D’Backs job is his alone.

Slippers- Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo will vie for the starting job in Colorado; a competition that will cost each of them AB.

Stiffs- Rod Barajas’ 19 HR were overshadowed by an abysmal .258 OBP.  His HR will disappear at CitiField.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten

Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Matt Wieters
Brian McCann
Kurt Suzuki
Miguel Montero
Mike Napoli
Jorge Posada
Russell Martin
Bengie Molina

Beware the Young Studs

So, you’re beginning to prepare for your Fantasy Baseball Draft and the annual dilemma of when to start assembling your pitching staff rears its ugly head. “Can I really let Tim Lincecum get past my early, second round pick?”  “If Johan Santana falls to the fourth round, is he worth the risk?” And, finally, “When do I look to grab one of the young guns that could put my staff over the top?”  Well, to answer the first two, Lincecum would be a tough pass at that point in any Fantasy Baseball Draft and Johan is a steal if he drops to the fourth round.  As for the third question, there’s a little more to consider than potential.

In The Sporting News 2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview, Brad Pinkerton wrote a terrific piece on young pitchers titled, Folding Aces.  In it, he analyzed the performance of these rising stars in the season after their stellar debuts.  He presented a formula for targeting those young hurlers that could reasonably be expected to turn up on the disabled list or suffer a disappointing campaign.  He had my interest when he presented those hurlers that violated his criteria in 2007.  Ian Kennedy, Dustin McGowan, Fausto Carmona, and Yovani Gallardo all turned out to be disappointing selections for Fantasy Baseball owners in 2008.  His ‘09 list was equally clairvoyant, as Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Manny Parra (above) either underperformed or landed on the DL.  So, what are these criteria and who’s on the list for 2010?

Pinkerton looked for pitchers 25 and younger who experienced a jump of 30 innings pitched over their previous career high in pro ball. Next, he eliminated any who’d registered 200 IP in any Major League season or had exceeded 35 career starts. What was left was a roster of hurlers with the potential to destroy your season.  Now, it’s not a perfect indicator,as evidenced by the ‘09 performance of Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw.  What it does tell you, though, is that you’re running a big risk if you take more than one of the following guys:

Max Scherzer
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Wade Davis
Joba Chamberlain
Mat Latos
Trevor Cahill
Ricky Romero
Marc Rzepczynski
Derek Holland

Moonlight Graham’s Top 20 Pitchers

Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
C.C. Sabathia
Zack Greinke
Felix Hernandez
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
Dan Haren
Javier Vasquez
Chris Carpenter
Josh Beckett
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
John Lackey
Jon Lester
Tommy Hanson
Jair Jurrjens
Matt Cain