by Moonlight Graham

Think back to last year’s Fantasy Baseball Draft when you sat at the table clicking your heels, hoping for Geovany Soto to get through to the round in which you had him slotted.  Coming off a season so stellar that he garnered the Rookie of the Year award, Soto was even more enticing to Fantasy Baseball owners because his 23 HR and 86 RBI came from behind the plate; traditionally the weakest Fantasy spot.  But like many before him, (remember Rick Wilkins?), Soto failed to build on his initial success.  Instead of the 30-100 season many expected, his was an injury riddled exercise in disappointment.

Unfortunately, offensive inconsistency behind the dish is an annual pitfall for Fantasy Baseball players.  Two years ago, Jorge Posada was a Moonlight selection primarily because, as I said at the time, “the guy plays every day.”  Almost as soon as I said that, Posada suffered the first major injury of his career and was lost for the season.  However, the undrafted Kelly Shoppach came from nowhere to post 21 HR and help my march to a title.  In the same season, many owners saw their chances go up in flames as Victor Martinez struggled while Chris Snyder supplied 16 HR from the waiver wire.  Even last year, Miguel Montero’s breakthrough campaign threw a lifeline to a number of Soto’s victims.  Starting to recognize a pattern?  Try not to get sucked in by the next “great” catcher and, instead, identify a few consistent producers who’ll come cheap but won’t blow up your season.

Chief among these candidates is the Angels’ Mike Napoli, an annual member of Moonlight’s Master Batters in the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie Baseball League.  Despite semi-splitting time in the Angels’ lineup with the offensively challenged Jeff Mathis, Napoli has posted back to back 20 HR seasons.  He’s a .270 hitter with a catcher-friendly .350 OBP whose name will rarely be called before the 15th round of any mixed draft.  He’ll even throw in 4 or 5 SB for good measure.  His stats may not be as sexy as Martinez, Martin or McCann, but he’ll deliver what you expect at about a third of the price.

2010 Catcher Ratings

Stud- Joe Mauer’s ridiculous MVP season was so good, it eliminates anyone else for consideration in this category.

Stars- Look for Matt Wieters to build on his scorching September, Victor Martinez is more attractive because of his First Base eligibility and Brian McCann is Atlanta’s best hitter.

Sleepers- Kurt Suzuki had a terrific season that went largely unnoticed while Miguel Montero looks for an even bigger season now that the D’Backs job is his alone.

Slippers- Chris Iannetta and Miguel Olivo will vie for the starting job in Colorado; a competition that will cost each of them AB.

Stiffs- Rod Barajas’ 19 HR were overshadowed by an abysmal .258 OBP.  His HR will disappear at CitiField.

Moonlight Graham’s Top Ten

Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Matt Wieters
Brian McCann
Kurt Suzuki
Miguel Montero
Mike Napoli
Jorge Posada
Russell Martin
Bengie Molina

Beware the Young Studs

So, you’re beginning to prepare for your Fantasy Baseball Draft and the annual dilemma of when to start assembling your pitching staff rears its ugly head. “Can I really let Tim Lincecum get past my early, second round pick?”  “If Johan Santana falls to the fourth round, is he worth the risk?” And, finally, “When do I look to grab one of the young guns that could put my staff over the top?”  Well, to answer the first two, Lincecum would be a tough pass at that point in any Fantasy Baseball Draft and Johan is a steal if he drops to the fourth round.  As for the third question, there’s a little more to consider than potential.

In The Sporting News 2009 Fantasy Baseball Preview, Brad Pinkerton wrote a terrific piece on young pitchers titled, Folding Aces.  In it, he analyzed the performance of these rising stars in the season after their stellar debuts.  He presented a formula for targeting those young hurlers that could reasonably be expected to turn up on the disabled list or suffer a disappointing campaign.  He had my interest when he presented those hurlers that violated his criteria in 2007.  Ian Kennedy, Dustin McGowan, Fausto Carmona, and Yovani Gallardo all turned out to be disappointing selections for Fantasy Baseball owners in 2008.  His ‘09 list was equally clairvoyant, as Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, Glen Perkins and Manny Parra (above) either underperformed or landed on the DL.  So, what are these criteria and who’s on the list for 2010?

Pinkerton looked for pitchers 25 and younger who experienced a jump of 30 innings pitched over their previous career high in pro ball. Next, he eliminated any who’d registered 200 IP in any Major League season or had exceeded 35 career starts. What was left was a roster of hurlers with the potential to destroy your season.  Now, it’s not a perfect indicator,as evidenced by the ‘09 performance of Tim Lincecum, Jon Lester and Clayton Kershaw.  What it does tell you, though, is that you’re running a big risk if you take more than one of the following guys:

Max Scherzer
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Wade Davis
Joba Chamberlain
Mat Latos
Trevor Cahill
Ricky Romero
Marc Rzepczynski
Derek Holland

Moonlight Graham’s Top 20 Pitchers

Tim Lincecum
Johan Santana
C.C. Sabathia
Zack Greinke
Felix Hernandez
Roy Halladay
Justin Verlander
Dan Haren
Javier Vasquez
Chris Carpenter
Josh Beckett
Cliff Lee
Adam Wainwright
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
John Lackey
Jon Lester
Tommy Hanson
Jair Jurrjens
Matt Cain

In the Hausier’s Krowedum Fantasy Baseball League, as well as many Dynasty, or Keeper, leagues across the country, Minor Leaguers can play an important role.  Drafting and holding on to prospects that are close to making contributions on the Major League level is a great way to supplement your Fantasy Baseball roster and increase your chances for a championship. If you don’t draft Minor Leaguers, it’s still worth a look, as some are good enough to warrant selection in a regular Fantasy Baseball Draft. What follows is a list of Moonlight’s Top Ten prospects for 2010; players who have yet to play in the majors ranked as much for their chances to see significant time in the big leagues this year as for their talent.  Good luck. Just twenty one days ’til pitchers and catchers!

1) Stephen Strasburg RHP (Nationals-AFL) As a senior at San Diego State, Strasburg had a 13-1 record that featured a 1.95 ERA and 195 K in 109 IP.  He and his 100 MPH fastball could be in Nats’ rotation without ever having played in the Minors. He was 4-1 as he made his professional debut in the Arizona Fall League.

2) Chris Carter 1B (Athletics-AAA) His OBP of .422 is enough to make GM Billy Beane swoon.  He also clouted 32 HR and 115 RBI while batting .329.  AL Rookie of the Year candidate will probably start the year in Oakland.

3) Carlos Santana C (Indians-AA) His power numbers are sterling enough for a backstop,(22 HR 93 RBI), but what sets him apart from the pack is the 90 runs he scored and his .413 OBP; unheard of for players at his position. The Indians traded both Victor Martinez and Kelly Shoppach to clear room for him so; he may be the Tribe’s starter on Opening Day.

4) Jason Heyward OF (Braves-AAA) In just 99 games, Heyward, Atlanta’s top prospect, hit .323 with 17 HR and 63 RBI.  Throw in 25 doubles, a few of which will become dingers as he matures, and you can see why the Bravos are so hot for him.

5) Pedro Alvarez 3B (Pirates-AA) Biggest obstacle facing the top overall pick from ‘08 may be the Pirates tight checkbook.  Keeping his arbitration clock from starting would be the only reason to keep Alvarez in the Minors to start the season. He turned in a solid pro debut last year, (.288-27-95) and is better than any of the Bucs’ alternatives.

6) Travis Wood LHP (Reds-AAA) Tough to draft a rookie pitcher who’ll call the Great American Ballpark his home, but Wood’s got the stuff. 13-5 at AAA last year with a miniscule 1.777 ERA and 1.04 WHIP; he knows how to pitch.

7) Jeremy Hellickson RHP (Rays-AAA) This far down the list only because the Rays are, historically, patient to a fault with their young hurlers.  However, it’ll be hard to keep his K Rate, (10.4/9IP), or his ungodly WHIP, (0.94) in the Minors for long.  Future ace.

8 ) Michael Taylor OF (Athletics-AAA) A 20-20 prospect that Billy Beane plucked from the Jays for Brett Wallace.  Another high OBP guy, (.395), Taylor might find a spot with the rebuilding A’s

9)Brett Wallace 3B (Blue Jays-AAA)Wallace was the key guy shipped from the Cardinals to the A’s in the Matt Holliday trade and was then sent to Toronto over the winter.  He’s got a solid bat, (.293 BA 20 HR), and has only to beat Edwin Encarnacion and/or Lyle Overbay for AB at either corner spot.

10) Drew Locke 1B (Astros-AA) Posted a ledger of .338-20-109 in just 129 games last year.  At first glance, blocked at 1B by Lance Berkman, but Houston could always move Lance back to the outfield if Locke continues to mash.

Got a call the other day from Jack Sullivan, proprietor of The Big Steins in the Hausier’s Krowedum Rotisserie League and proud owner of the second and sixth picks in the upcoming HKRL Fantasy Baseball Draft.  Jack had just started his draft prep by going over a few mock drafts and Top 100 lists.  He was surprised to find Joe Mauer listed no higher than 12th on any of the material he was studying and had a question for me. “Now, with the second pick, Hanley Ramirez is a no-brainer. But, with the sixth pick, I want Joe Mauer.”  “The list I’m looking at has him listed 12th but I’m not sure he even lasts until number 6.  Am I crazy?”

Well, Jackson, one could make the argument that, in fact, you are; especially after your tragic decision to waive Jason Kubel just a day after last year’s draft.  But, in this case, you’re right on the mark with Kubel’s teammate, the great Joe Mauer.  As a matter of fact, the rationale behind your first pick confirms Mauer as worthy of a mid-first round choice.

In most drafts, Albert Pujols is the logical first choice.  Ramirez usually goes second, not so much because his statistics are markedly better than alternative choices such as Ryan Braun or Alex Rodriguez but due to the fact that he produces at their level while playing a very thin position.  Think about what your roster would look like were you to pick Braun.  You’d have a stud outfielder but would now be forced to dip down into the shortstop pool later on; let’s say to the 10th round where both Jason Bartlett and outfielder Nelson Cruz will be available.  Your team is obviously stronger with Ramirez and Cruz than with Braun and Bartlett.

The same logic must be applied to Mauer.  He’s a three time batting champ and the reigning MVP who, by the way, became a stud power hitter last year while batting .370.  Those stats put him in the first round no matter what his position.  That his is actually the weakest of all, you absolutely cannot afford to turn down his kind of production at that spot.  So, do you think you’re better off with Mauer and Joey Votto in the fifth round or with Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann?  Looks like an easy decision, Jack.  Good luck.

Fantasy Baseball Pre-Season Draft Prep

Happy New Year.  Now that we’re just about a month from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, it’s time to stop whining about that one point loss in your Fantasy Football championship game and turn your attention to the National Pastime.  It’s been three months since you put a lid on last season and you’ve got some catching up to do because you can bet there’s at least one geek in your league who’s already started.  What follows is a list of resources that are Moonlight favorites and will lay the groundwork for a successful season.

Fantasy Baseball Websites-

If your league uses CBSSportsline, you already have access to a valuable tool that will cost you nothing.  You’ll find positional rankings, a top 300, mock drafts and, most importantly, player profiles that are updated whenever there is news.  Yahoo Fantasy Sports and ESPN are also very good but not on a par with CBS.  Another Moonlight staple is Ron Shandler’s BASEBALLHQ.com.  Shandler is the preeminent Fantasy numbers guru who has been publishing analyses since 1986 and serves as an adviser to the St. Louis Cardinals.  There is even a free weekly newsletter available that will provide you with anything from draft strategies to sleeper picks from now until the end of August.  The last I’d recommend is MockDraftCentral.com where you can enroll and participate in mock drafts that will give you an invaluable insight as to how other owners are evaluating players.  The free access is limited but still very helpful.

Fantasy Baseball Periodicals-

I’ve yet to find a more comprehensive preview magazine than The Sporting News Fantasy Baseball Preview.  On the newsstands last week, it provides in-depth analysis of every Major Leaguer, Minor League prospects, Mock Drafts and Fantasy Baseball Draft strategies.  Positional rankings,three year stat lines and player projections are also included.  Fantasy Sports Fantasy Baseball Preview is another terrific resource.  Originally named Fantasy Baseball, the magazine has always had its roots in our favorite sport. It was there that I first read about theories like “the 27 year old breakout” and others that helped put a few dollars in my pocket. If  you’d like to dig a little deeper into the pocket as well as the statistics, it’s back to Shandler for his Fantasy Baseball Forecaster.  Packed with in depth statistical overviews such as batting average on balls in play and percentage of runners left stranded by pitchers, it is a mathematician’s dream.  I won’t kid you about understanding all of Shandler’s strategies or equations but I annually find a ton of information exclusive to the Forecaster.  And let’s not forget the Thursday online edition of the Brooklyn Eagle, and FantasySportsDirt.com where I trust many of you turn for guidance.

Fantasy Baseball Broadcasts

With the merger of Sirius and XM, all satellite radio subscribers have access to MLB Home Plate.  (Sirius 210 and XM 175).  Their Fantasy Baseball coverage leaves much to be desired, with just one hour dedicated weekly, but The Power Alley, hosted by Seth Everett, is full of late breaking news and transactions while being an entertaining listen.  The Fantasy Focus hosted by Jeff Erickson of Rotowire.com. is on Blogspot Radio along with a number of Fantasy Baseball podcasts.  Erickson’s show is an invaluable source of info regarding injuries, trades and scouting.  The daily Hot Stove Report on MLB Network is a must watch, as well, especially when Harold Reynolds is on the panel.

Hall of Fame Honors for The Hawk: Where Do I Sign?

Andre Dawson was recently voted into the MLB Hall of Fame.  Good for him.  A really good ballplayer who appeared not to be on steroids (note: Mark McGwire garnered a whopping total of 23.7% of eligible votes…..see more on Big Mac below). When I think about Dawson, what comes to mind was his free agency year in 1987.  The Expos did not want to pay up and apparently, due to the owner’s collusion, no other team was interested.  He meets with the Cubs and tells them to hand him (Dawson) a blank contract!  He signs it and tells the Cubs to fill in the amount later. I seriously doubt Scott Boras would let that happen today.   Dawson went on to bash 49 HR’s and take the MVP that year.

This Just In- Belly Full of  Steroids?

Mark McGwire admits to steroid use “on and off for 10 years.”  Don’t know about you, but when his neck got to be the size of Buddha’s stomach, I didn’t need a Congressional panel to figure out that he was juicing.

David Segui’s Family Hands Him a Hall of Fame Vote

Kevin Appier, Pat Hentgen and David Segui each secured one vote this year.  Appier was a solid starter and Pat Hentgen won the 1996 Cy Young Award but why the hell is Segui’s name there?!  He must have a sportswriter relative somewhere in this great country.

Red Sox Road to Nowhere

Mike Cameron and John Lackey signed with the Red Slobs.   Lackey should get hurt as a fly ball pitcher in that park and Cameron is very capable of striking out with abandon in all parks.

Straight Out of Left Field

Many people consider drugs a large sports issue and it should be.  But the main issue about drugs is that the pain is self-inflicted.   Guns on the other hand, generally hurt, mutilate and kill others.  Gilbert Arenas and his friendly teammate, Javaris Crittenten brought their firearms to the workplace recently to settle a sports debt.  Nice guys, huh?  Let’s hope they get several decades in a state penitentiary.  Twenty years ago, they’d be part of a team called the Baltimore Bullets (whose name changed due to the negative connotation it put on the city).   They’re joined on the list by several noted gun-toting folks:  Scotty Pippen, Plaxico Burress, Ben Johnson, the former Net Jayson Williams, Willie Mays Aikens, Cesar Cedeno, Ruben “Hurricane” Carter and many other Emmy Award winners who committed crimes without the use of a gun.

New York Mets Moving in Wrong Direction. Again!

It can’t be too hard to be a GM, can it? Assuming Omar Minaya is not being directed (like George used to do with the Yanks), and realizing that the new Citi Field is a cavernous, pitcher’s park, why would the first free agent signing be Jason Bay? Typical Mets blunder. Get a pitcher!! John Lackey would’ve been perfect, since he comes from that real league (the AL) and would basically be pitching against minor leaguers in the NL. Oh, sorry, Minaya did sign Kelvim Escobar, who may have to pitch left-handed this year.

John, Paul, George, Ringo and The Bachelor. The Bachelor?

Don’t you wish you were “The Bachelor” (right), even for just a month or so? What kind of women cry within an hour of meeting a man? Yes, the women that attended the Beatles concerts started crying as soon as the Fab Four stepped on stage. But, c’mon; they were The Beatles. These “Bachelor” ladies, however, were saying things like, “I was picturing our lives together.” What?!  I’d toss any girl that a)said the word “like” more than once per sentence; b) was from California (they’re all nuts) or c) had made “poor male choices” for 8 years in a row.

What A Difference A Decade Makes

Tiger Woods is so 2009!  Randy Johnson retired. He is so 1999.

Naturally Unnatural

Speaking of Johnsons, I read today that Casey Johnson, the 30 year-old heiress to the Johnson & Johnson fortune, died of natural causes. Natural causes? Sorry, it’s not natural to die at 30 years-old. Please!

New York Knicks Achieve Addition By Subtraction

Is Stephon Marbury still playing basketball? After a quick check on nba.com, he’s nowhere to be found. I guess the Knicks made more good moves than we initially thought. They’ve won a few games and play exciting ball; they kicked Marbury and his nasty attitude to Beantown and they have all this salary cap room. Break out the Knicks jersey from the closet, I’m buying back in.

Broadway Blues Land A Top Dog

The NY Rangers’ Marion Gaborik is really, really good. Reminds me of a mixed-breed dog. Sort of a Jaromir Jagr/Pavel Bure/Mike Gartner combo, except, you won’t find him in a shelter.

Well, much to the chagrin of longtime Sawx booster and Brooklyn Eagle columnist, Tom Kane, we called the Angels-Red Sox series perfectly.  We had the Yanks in 4 and the Phils in 5, one game off on each.  We couldn’t have been more wrong about the Cardinals-Dodgers, though, as we were reminded by Moonlight reader, Ken Jankowsky.  That the Dodgers were not only able to overcome the Cards’ starting rotation was impressive enough but to do it in three straight was something not many saw coming.  It bodes well for Joe Torre’s boys going forward, especially with a potential Game & scheduled for Chavez Ravine.  Let’s take a look at the two matchups that’ll give us our 2009 World Series, disregarding for a minute the drooling Fox executives offering up their souls for a Yankees-Dodgers Fall Classic.

Angels vs. Yankees-  Have to love the Yankees deciding to ride their big horse, C. C. Sabathia, in three games if the series goes seven.  Unfortunately for the Bombers, Mother Nature doesn’t look like she’s planning to cooperate.  Sabathia likely won’t get the chance for that third start, however, as the Angels should wrap things up beforehand.  While Alex Rodriguez finally busted out of a career long postseason slump, he did it against a pitching staff far inferior to that of the Angels.  Mike Scioscia’s boys play the game as fundamentally sound as anyone and won’t make the same silly mistakes that did in the Twins.  Expect Derek Jeter to continue to shine while ARod and Teixeira will struggle.  Vlad Guerrero walks off with the MVP award as Los Angeles takes the title in five games.

Phillies vs. Dodgers
Tough break for the Phillies as Cliff Lee won’t go until Game 3.  Philly manager Charlie Manuel keeps his fingers crossed that Cole Hamels can dig himself out of his season long funk and give his club a decent start in the opener.  Can’t see it happening.  As for the Dodgers, their starter, Clayton Kershaw, had the lowest BA against in the NL.  Their bats have awakened at just the right time and Manny Ramirez is always lurking.  Get to know these young Dodgers; Ethier, Kemp and Loney, as they will be the elite of the National league for a long time.  The Phils should enjoy a little success in their home park but not enough to win.  The pick here is the Dodgers in 6.

National League Playoffs

Phillies vs. Rockies-  The Rockies have been the NL’s best team since Jim Tracy took over and almost came all the way back to take the NL West.  There are problems in the rotation, however, as Jason Marquis has been relegated to the bull pen off of his poor second half performance and Jorge de la Rosa is iffy after leaving his last start.  No such problems exist in Philly, as their rotation goes five deep.  It’s the bullpen where the defending champs are uncertain, with Brad Lidge sporting a 7+ ERA and Ryan Madson failing to take hold of the job.  Does Charlie Manuel have the stuff to go with Brett Myers in a playoff series?  Stay tuned.  Phillies in 5.

Dodgers vs. Cardinals- The trading deadline acquisition of Matt Holliday solidified the St. Louis lineup and allowed them to coast in the NL Central.  They have the best pitching in the game behind Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter while the Dodgers rotation has been inconsistent through much of the second half; especially Chad Billingsley.  Look for the Cards’ hurlers to stifle Manny’s bat.  Cards in 4.

American League Playoffs

Yankees vs. Twins- It was a long, uphill climb for the Twinkies as they made up seven games in four weeks without former MVP Justin Morneau.  That climb may have taken too much out of them, however, to mount any kind of challenge vs. MLB’s best team.  The Bombers will feast on the Twins’ young hurlers and dominate Minnesota in the playoffs the same way they did while going 7-0 during the regular season.  Yankees in 4.

Angels vs. Red Sox-  Yes, I’m well aware that the Red Sox seem to have the Angels’ number over the last few years; back to 1986 to be more precise, actually.  But I love the way the Angels play, love their resiliency and determination and think Vladimir Guerrero is going to have a big October.  For the Sawx, Beckett has struggled for over a month and Jon Lester’s health is a question.  Angels in 3.

It’s been a disappointing Major League season for those fans that enjoy September pennant races as each division seems to be locked up and only the NL Wild Card spot is still being contested.  We might see one more divisional race if the Twins can sweep the Tigers this weekend but, with their pitching, it’s not likely.  For baseball purists, the final month has been a letdown.

The absence of close races will have a bearing on Fantasy Baseball owners also, as they’ll be forced to keep an eye on star players that are vital to their Fantasy Baseball teams being rested as their MLB team preps for the post season.  So, if you’re looking to pick up an important point or two in the W or ERA categories, be aware that C.C. Sabathia or Chris Carpenter might be passed over in order to get a little more rest before the playoffs.  Likewise, dependable veterans on teams out of the mix; guys like Paul Konerko and Miguel Tejada, to name two, may find a seat on the bench as their teams audition younger players.  The bottom line is, if you’re lucky enough to still be in the running for your league title, it is more important to keep an eye on the box scores now than at any other point in the season.

Streaking

Arizona’s Juan Gutierrez is making a case to be the D’Backs’ 2010 closer with 4 S and 1 W in September… Tommy Hanson has a 0.45 ERA over three September starts for Atlanta… Kansas City’s Robinson Tejeda is 2-0 over three starts with 18 K.  When did you ever think he’d be a piece of your puzzle?… Seattle’s Ryan Rowland-Smith has gone 7 IP in each of his last four starts while posting a 2.61 ERA…

Stalling

Houston’s Miguel Tejada will see his playing time decrease as the Astros audition Tommy Manzelli at SS… Chad Billingsley’s most recent turn in the rotation was skipped as he has struggled over the last month… Despite extended rest, Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo was ripped in his last start and could be shut down for the rest of the year… Even though his last outing was a strong one, Chris Tillman may be shut down by the Orioles as they try to limit his IP… Cleveland’s Fausto Carmona is 1-5, 5.48 in his last nine starts… Jorge Posada will miss the weekend after being suspended for his ridiculous display during the Yankees- Blue Jays game on Wednesday… A.J. Burnett continues to struggle, going 1-4, 6.75 over his last six starts.  It’s been awhile since any of his teammates hit him with a pie… Take the 5-0 record given you by Pedro Martinez and run.  In his last start, the fragile Martinez threw 130 pitches, the most he’s thrown since 2002.  That followed a 119 pitch game in his previous outing.  You can’t expect him to hold up under the strain…

Sick Bay

Washington C Jesus Flores is done for the year after shoulder surgery… Justin Morneau will be out for the year with a stress fracture in his back… Kevin Youkilis has missed three straight with back spasms and could be out through the weekend… Detroit’s Jarrod Washburn is out with a bad knee… Yankees’ starter Andy Pettitte will miss a turn due to shoulder fatigue… Texas OF Josh Hamilton may miss the rest of the year with back issues…