Who Do You Trust?

There isn’t a Fantasy Baseball writer or publication, (including this one), that isn’t penning a piece this week cautioning Fantasy owners to be patient; that the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and that the convictions you held entering your draft should not have been shaken by a player’s performance over the first few weeks.

That is a predominantly valid theory, as three weeks is certainly not a large enough sample to make a decision on how a player’s season will evolve.  At least not those of whom you had a very strong opinion before the season began.  But what about those major leaguers of whom you weren’t sure?  The guys returning from injury, the kids making their major league debuts or the veterans looking to bounce back from bad years?  When have we seen enough to make an informed decision about them?

As part of our weekly quest to guide you to a Yoo-Hoo shower in he fall, we present the following list of players that have our full faith and confidence, as well as those for whom we’d accept a few felt tip pens and a 2013 Draft Cheat Sheet in return. It’ll help you identify the guys you should keep, discard or acquire.  Good luck

“Maybe this is Heaven.”… Ray Kinsella

Bartolo Colon (A’s)- If Colon keeps this up, he may be the second pitcher in MLB history to have a surgery named after him.  In one stretch during his last start, he threw 38 consecutive strikes.  Much like Tommy John, he seems even stronger in the second season after his return than the first- and Colon was certainly a pleasant surprise in the Bronx last year. Colon is becoming the workhorse of the Oakland staff and absolutely warrants a spot on your roster.

Lance Lynn (Cardinals)- At first glance, their is no reason to believe that his 3-0 record and excellent peripherals are anything more than a hot streak.  Maybe,  but, given that his next three starts come against Chicago, Pittsburgh and Houston,  ride him for another two weeks, at least.

David Freese (Cardinals)- His fast start is actually a carryover from an incredible September and Postseason.  Lots of players can put together productive streaks but the stars are the ones that can do it when it counts.  We strongly believe that Freese is serving notice that he is one of the NL’s next big names.

Austin Jackson (Tigers)-  Every once in a while, Fantasy owners have to put away the spreadsheets and SABR metrics and listen to the men on the field.  Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland was adamant during spring training that Jackson was in for a big year after changing his approach at the plate.  He’s off to a sizzling start, drawing more bases on balls than last year and making a prophet of his skipper.  Expect a performance much closer to his 2010 total than those of last season.

Justin Morneau (Twins)- Many Fantasy owners were burned last season when Morneau couldn’t shake the effects of the concussion that cost him most of 2010.  Even more vowed that they wouldn’t make that mistake this year and are dismissive of his production over the first few weeks.  But, we’ll take the word of Ron Gardenhire.  The Twins’ skipper was the most cautious voice during Morneau’s return in 2011, vowing to keep his MVP first baseman out of the lineup until he was completely healthy, no matter how long it took.  So, when Gardenhire declared him ready for a big year, we listened.  Good thing.

Jonathan Niese (Mets)- There used to be a time when pitchers, especially lefties, were given time to hit their stride.  To gain the experience necessary for success.  Niese, in his third full season, has arrived at that point in his career.  A fluid lefty with sneaky fast velocity, he’s learned how to pitch in the big leagues and will soon be the Mets’ ace.  None other than Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson agrees, as he signed Niese to a long term deal just before the season.

“You said your finger was a gun!”… Terrence Mann

Adam Dunn (White Sox)- Don’t be fooled by his 2 HR game yesterday.  Dunn had three more hits vs LHP in 2011 than you did.  We have no idea why Dunn is no longer the HRv terror he was in the NL but, as Fantasy Owners, we don’t have the time to find out.  There is every possibility he’ll return to form.  Just let someone else bet on that.  Not you.

Chris Davis (Orioles)- His .375 BA into this weekend is encouraging, as is the fact that he’s cut down dramatically on his strikeouts. However, that contact rate comes at a price, as Davis has but 1 HR so far.  You can’t have a first baseman with no pop.

Bryan LaHair(Cubs)- Admittedly, we don’t know much about him.  What we do know, however, is that it took him more than a decade to reach the majors. There’s a reason for that.  Take what LaHair gives you for now and dump him as soon as he hits a bump in the road, as GM Theo Epstein is dying to get his old Boston farmhand, Anthony Rizzo, into that spot.

Chase Headley (Padres)- We all know the story of the blind squirrel. Nine of Headley’s first sixteen hits have been for extra bases, despite the fact that he has never been a power hitter.Couple that with Petco park’s unfriendly nature toward hitters and you have a classic, “sell high” candidate.

Jake Arrietta (Orioles)- We got a glimpse of the rest of Arrietta’s season last night as he was cuffed around by the Angels.  He’s a talented kid with all the tools, but has yet to put them all together to the degree necessary for him to survive the brutal lineups he’ll face in the AL East.

Fantasy News and Notes
Don’t miss a great piece by  Joe Sheehan in last week’s SI.  In the column, titled, “Abolishing Savery”, Sheehan makes the point about the absurdity by which the save rule dictates how managers employ their bullpens.  Nice to know I’m not a lone voice in the wilderness… In 50+ seasons, the New York Mets have never had a pitcher throw a no-hitter.  However, after yesterday’s perfecto by Philip Humber, ex Mets have now accounted for 13… Before you look to acquire Marlon Byrd for your AL-only roster, take a look at his dismal start in Chicago.  His 3 for 43 start might take a little of the Boston Boo-Birds’ focus away from Bobby V… The greatest thing about my XM Radio and MLB.TV accounts?  Having the daily enjoyment of listening to Vin Scully broadcast a game.  It should be a crime for hacks like John Sterling to say their in the seame business… After watching  a few A’s games, I’m quite impressed with RF Josh Reddick.  He’s got a terrific swing, good speed and is a strong defensive outfielder.  His slow start may give you an opportunity to stash him as a prospect on your reserve roster… Umpire Joe West is easily my least favorite figure in all of baseball,as his pugnacious, combative nature and diminishing skills as an arbiter combine with his desire to be the focus of attention to create a mountain of incompetence.  Have to give Cowboy Joe his props, though, when it comes to Yankees-Red Sox.  With all of the stepping out of the box, interminable pitching changes and softball lineups, games between these two rivals are unbearably and unnecessarily long… Stick your toe in the water and see if anyone in your league is frustrated enough with Josh Johnson or Tim Lincecum to dump him in a trade. Given their pedigrees, their is no reason not to expect both to respond from their sub-par Aprils and give you a huge return on investment… With Aroldis Chapman’s K rate at 2 per IP and Sean Marshall struggling, how long will it be before Dusty Baker makes Chapman his closer.

by Eddie Mayrose

Last August, I wrote a column that was, essentially, a letter to my 2012 Draft-Day self, beseeching caution on a number of fronts where, in the past, a blind eye had served to bite me in the butt during the season.

Luckily, I included that column as part of my Draft Prep last month and skirted the biggest pitfall- Closers.  Highlighting the line: “No matter how often we hear that Saves are Fantasy Baseball’s most unreliable statistic, it’s difficult to pass on established closers” , I remained patient and didn’t reach early.  That pearl of wisdom, seemingly obvious, was unfortunately ignored by many once the first two or three relievers came off the board.

Think about it.  The “Closer Run” is the first in any draft, as some Fantasy Owners scurry like frightened deer to grab recognizable names three and four rounds earlier than their statistics/opportunity/reliability dictate.  And, every year, many of these guys spend April bemoaning the fact that their selections have gotten out of the gate slowly, or, worse, performed poorly enough to lose the job.

The first two weeks of the 2012 campaign have followed the annual script, with as many as ten teams uncertain about the role or being forced to show patience with their struggling stoppers. While this ambiguity may be a headache for the likes of Bobby Valentine, it’s an opportunity for Fantasy Owners to add 20+ Saves to the statistics through judicious use of the waiver wire. Here’s a quick, Moonlight synopsis of how some of these situations might play out.

San Francisco-  With Brian Wilson likely out for the season, the Giants have no option but the always ill-fated “Closer by Committee” system. Of the candidates, the favorite to receive the most opportunities is Santiago Casilla,who was 6 out of 7 in 2011 when Wilson was out.

Detroit & Miami- Even though Jose Valverde and Heath Bell have each blown two saves over the season’s first ten days,(and looked terrible in doing so), neither is in danger of losing his job.  Valverde, who was a perfect 49 for 49 for the Tigers in 2011, has built up enough credit with Jim Leyland to dissuade the manager from making a change, while the Marlins are locked into Bell by virtue of the big contract he signed over the winter.

Toronto- Sergio Santos never could win over the White Sox brain trust during his stay in Chicago, prompting his trade to the Blue Jays. He’s currently sporting an ERA and WHIP that would get him demoted on my son’s Little League team.  With an established closer like Francisco Cordero in the same bullpen, Santos is on a short leash.

Washington- With the news that Drew Storen will likely be out until the All Star break, Nats’ fans are becoming familiar with the anxiety experienced by Phillies’ faithful over the last few years whenever Brad Lidge was called into a game.  Lidge has split two outings, looking good in the first and abysmal in the second.  That inconsistency will probably open the door for Henry Rodriguez and his 100 MPH heater, as Davey Johnson is unlikely to move the reliable Tyler Clippard from the set-up role.

Texas- Joe Nathan has long been a Moonlight favorite, so it pains us to watch him struggle.  We still think that Nathan will work his way back from TJ surgery, but, if he doesn’t, the Rangers will probably turn to Mike Adams.

Boston- Alfredo Aceves has become a symbol of the discord between Red Sox GM Ben Cherington and manager Bobby Valentine.  Bobby V wanted Aceves as part of his rotation while Cherington demanded that career-reliever Daniel Bard be inserted as the fourth starter.  As each continues to struggle in his new job, look for Valentine to impose his will and turn to Bard.

Kansas City- Jonathan Broxton is a two time All Star with little competition in the Royals’ bullpen now that Joakim Soria is gone for the year.  Even after a 2 BB, 2 HBP meltdown vs. Oakland, KC manager Ned Yost declared that Broxton is his man. Not knowing what, specifically, caused Broxton’s fall from grace in Los Angeles. we’re a little less confident, and might take a look at Greg Holland.

Cleveland- When Chris Perez went down with an oblique injury during Spring Training, it was thought he wouldn’t be ready for the Tribe’s opener.  He wasn’t, as he got cuffed around in his 2012 debut.  He’s 2 for 2 since, but we really think that Vinnie Pestano is the better pitcher, and will eventually take the job.

Chicago Cubs- If you already have Carlos Marmol, you know that his Saves will be accompanied by horrific peripheral stats.  You’re stuck, though, as Kerry Wood is the only option for the Cubbies.  He’s almost as bad.

by Eddie Mayrose

As a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, I was recently invited into an Auction League by Colby Schaeffer of ProFSL.  I don’t know that Colby called it an experts league, (tough to do, I suppose, after inviting me), but I certainly considered it to be.  I’ve got some work to do now that the auction is complete, as I came up a little short on the back end of my pitching staff.  You’ll also see that Joe Mauer is my UT for $17, as I got caught with my pants down, after grabbing Alex Avila,  trying to inflate his value.  Well, as you all know, I love the Twins anyway, so maybe Mauer stays off the DL this year.

Check out the impressive list of GM’s, as well as Colby’s extremely cool, Bill James based scoring. We’ll be posting from time to time about my progress, (or lack thereof), during the season.  For now, Can’t wait for Thursday! Enough of these up and down games with clocks.  Take me out to the ball game!

This is the first article in a long series about the ProFSL MLB Challenge 2012 hosted by advanced fantasy sports community ProFSL and played on Yahoo  This challenge is a free, redraft, H2H-points league composed of 12 GMs across 9 different websites.

The scoring system used for the league is fairly unique.  It is rooted in the writings of Bill James and is a Yahoo friendly version of ProFSL’s Moneyball franchise-style dynasty league.  This system weighs baseball statistics in detail covering the likes of HBP, CS, and GIDP.  It rewards position players much more than pitchers based on James’ ratios.  His ratios suggested that pitching contributed 36% to a win, batting was 47%, and defense was 17%.  Well, with a defense-neutral scoring system, these ratios change to about 57% batting and 43% pitching.  Nevertheless, a great pitching staff can lead teams to victories just as it proves in real-life.  This scoring system goes even further with the roster as there are 5 SP slots and 6 RP slots.  Rotating pitchers is not a must for teams who run 5-man rotations.  While there is no weekly IP limit, there is a weekly acquisition limit of 4 players to prevent streaming.

This first article will go into detail about Monday night’s auction draft .  It was a competitive event that lasted three hours.  We even took a couple timeouts (one for a mishap Adrian Beltre pick by the disconnected Sherpas).  Auction drafts  notoriously take longer, but some great results come out of them.  Every GM can use their own unique strategy to build their team.  In this issue, each team will not be analyzed, but the overall results of the draft and implied rankings will be analyzed.  Teams will be analyzed shortly before the season starts to give GMs time to shore up their rosters.  Before we cover the draft, here is the Roster of GMs and Dollar Values in the Challenge.   

The Moonlight Graham Roster

C –  Alex Avila $18  ( Probably spent too much,  backstops like Posey were cheaper, later on.  Love Avila, though.)

1B- Joey Votto $54  (The one guy I had to have, and a steal compared to Miggy at $68.)

2B- Ryan Roberts $5

SS- Jhonny Peralta $1 (Why does Jhonny get no love?)

3B- Ryan Zimmerman $29

OF- Josh Hamilton $25

OF- Ichiro Suzuki $8 (Need a big bounce back season or I’m through.)

OF- Delmon Young $1

UT- Joe Mauer $17 (Sometimes we outsmart ourselves.)

Bench-Paul Goldschmidt $8  (Expecting a huge year.)

Bench- Jemile Weeks $1

Bench- Dexter Fowler $1

SP- Clayton Kershaw $34   ( My anchor.  Thought he was cheap at $34)

SP- Matt Cain $18

SP- Josh Johnson $11  (If healthy, a steal.  That’s a BIG if.)

SP- John Danks $2

SP- Brett Myers $1 (Houston’s closer.  My last option for Saves.)

RP-Matt Moore $18 (The most expensive RP, because I bid on him as an SP.)

RP- John Axford $5

RP- Matt Capps $1

RP- Scott Downs $1

by Eddie Mayrose

For many serious Fantasy owners, their pre-season prep work involves in-depth analysis of statistics, mock drafts and statistical projections.  Comprehensive stuff, and a great foundation for a successful Fantasy season.  Their work continues during training camps, as they track injuries and position battles that affect playing time.

In today’s world of instant information, delivered to smart phones and tablets, it’s extremely difficult for even the most casual Fantasy players to miss that Ryan Madson and Joakim Soria have been lost for the season. Or that Ryan Howard is two months away from playing and David Wright has been dealing with a rib injury. What used to be a significant edge for the hard working owner has been eliminated, mandating that more digging is needed in order to have a leg up heading into the draft. The question is, where to dig?

You might want to point your shovel toward the AL and NL notes published daily by USA Today.  With just a little practice, you’ll learn to read between the lines; unearthing valuable tidbits of information that will allow you to identify potential sleepers and busts not known to the more casual Fantasy player.  You may have to connect a few dots, but you’ll reap the benefits later on.  Here are a few players we’ve come across just this week.

Matt Cain- Always overshadowed by Tim Lincecum, Cain has become one of the NL’s steadiest hurlers.  He and the Giants have suspended talks for a contract extension, putting Cain into Moonlight’s favorite category- “Last year of his contract”.

Aroldis Chapman- Moving from the Cincy bullpen to the rotation may be difficult. But the hard throwing Cuban import has always been a starter and has shown great command in Florida, something that plagued his tenure as a reliever.

Edwin Encarnacion- If you’re in an AL only draft, Encarnacion’s value gets a bit of a bump should he gain OF eligiblity, something with which the Jays’ are currently tinkering.  The Jays don’t want to lose Edwin, their starting DH, during interleague play.

Felix Hernandez- The Mariners head to Japan to open their season this week vs. the A’s, before returning home for more exhibition games preceding their “U.S.” opener.  That means two starts for Hernandez in what will be an extended first week in most Head to Head formats.

Brian Matusz- The Oriole lefty is enjoying a strong spring, with 13 K’s in 10 IP. While it’s not unusual for young players to shine in Florida, Matusz’s number take on greater meaning because he reported to camp in great shape; a stark contrast from last season.  His spring success could be the indicator that he is ready to live up to the Birds’ lofty expectations.

Justin Morneau- The Twins’ superstar has lost most of the past two seasons to a concussion. Manager Ron Gardenhire is thrilled that he’s finally healthy and expects the former MVP to return to his lofty status.  Now, before you dismiss that assessment as typical, spring manager-speak, remember that Gardenhire has been the voice of caution through Morneau’s troubles;refusing to rush his 1B back into the lineup.

Salvador Perez- The news this week that Perez will be lost to knee surgery no doubt caused him to be lowered or removed from many draft boards. However, the Royals catching prospect is just 21, and is expected back by the All Star break.  If you’re in a keeper league, he could be a huge bargain.

Giancarlo Stanton- After being hit on the wrist with a pitch, Stanton, (the very definition of a player to be named later) has missed a ton of time.  However, before you start to worry, be aware that Stanton played just 6 ganes last spring, yet managed to post some pretty impressive numbers.

Neil Walker- The Pirates second sacker is a solid, second-tier performer at the position with decent upside.  If Bucs’ skipper folows through on his idea to insert Walker into the cleanup slot, Walker, currently a late mid-rounder in most mixed leagues, becomes an unexpected power source.

Delmon Young- The Tigers have assembled a lineup that will hit like a beer league softball team.  Young may be the biggest beneficiary, as he’ll hit fifth in this powerful order, behind Miggy and Prince and ahead of Alex Avila.  Don’t forget that Young is just two years removed from a 100 RBI season and is, still, just 26 years old.

by Eddie Mayrose

It was an interesting off season for free agents that had, formerly, been the faces of their franchises.  Since the Cardinals finished off the Rangers in the World Series, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes and Jonathan Papelbon have all signed mega-deals and changed the landscape of their new teams as well as the ones they left.

While these four perennial All Stars are certainly the most notable of the players that are wearing different uniforms in 2012, there are many more that, when valued correctly, can go a long way to improving your squad this season.

Welcome to the Neighborhood

1) Michael Cuddyer, Rockies- Our favorite guy on this list.  Always a solid RBI guy in Minnesota, he moves to the hitter-friendly Coors Field with multiple eligibility including 2B.

2)  Michael Pineda, Yankees- Yanks’ GM Brian Cashman absolutely stole Pineda from the Mariners.  The move to New York brings the potential for 15-18 wins.

3) Gio Gonzalez, Nationals- Anyone following FantasySportsDirt knows that Moonlight is a big Gio fan. Even bigger in 2012, now that Gonzalez will be facing pitchers in the NL in front of a much stronger lineup than he was accustomed in Oakland.

4) Heath Bell, Marlins- These are exciting times in Miami, and Bell should be a huge beneficiary of the improved Marlins’ lineup.  Don’t be surprised if Heath returns 50 saves on your investment.

5) Carlos Beltran, Cardinals- Don’t forget that Beltran, finally healthy, was an All Star last season.  His struggles after being traded to San Francisco should only make him more of a bargain.

6) Michael Bourn, Braves- Normally, we shy away from chasing SB.  In Bourn’s case, though, he should see a nice spike in R and even RBI playing with the Braves.

7) Jesus Montero, Mariners- The other half of the Pineda trade, Montero showed a big bat during a September call up witrh the Yanks.  Don’t overvalue that small sample, however.

Chris Snyder, Astros- He’s struggled with back issues in Arizona and Pittsburgh,  but is still relatively young and will be in a wonderful hitter’s park.  Late in the draft, who doesn’t love a catcher that can give you 15 dingers?

9) Chris Sale, White Sox- Sale has been bounced around in Chicago’s bullpen for a few years.  Now, with a definite role, we expect his immense talent to emerge.

10) Casey McGehee, Pirates- After a breakout 2010, McGehee was abysmal in 2011.  In the final stages of your draft, he’s worth a gamble to rebound.

by Eddie Mayrose

Stand outside the draft room of any Fantasy Baseball League and you’ll run into him when it’s all over.  He’s in every league; we all know him.  He’s the guy who selects an All Star team from two years prior but, because of injuries, starts every scouting report with, “If he stays healthy…”

Truth be told, there is room for but one or two comebacks on any successful Fantasy Baseball team.  More than that and you’re pushing the odds that are stacked against you.  And, like your buddy who’ll spend the winter telling anyone who’ll listen that, “If my guys hadn’t gotten hurt…” you’ll be at the bottom of your standings.

Here at FantasySportsDirt.com, there’s an opinion on  guys at each position that are trying to return to form.  Some, we’d stay away from at all costs while with others, we’d roll the dice.  Keeping in mind that, no matter how much we like any of them, there’s no way in the world we’d take more than two.

Catcher- You can make the case that Joe Mauer will be the most undervalued player in Fantasy Baseball this year.  Mauer’s power display in 2009 has inflated his draft value over the last two seasons, but his injuries have likely driven him down to the middle rounds for 2012.  Even without the HR, this is a three time batting champ who will score an inordinate amount of runs for a catcher and drive in more than 70.

First Base- It’s always tough to pass on an all time favorite like Justin Morneau.  But, pass we must as the status of the Twins’ first baseman is still unclear. He struggled through an abbreviated 2011, seemingly sti dealing with the effects of the concussion that cut short a wonderful 2010.  Even if he looks good in camp, we’d still look somehere else. Concussions can be dicey and this one’s not worth the gamble.

Second Base- The days of Chase Utley at the top of the draft are gone, as the Phils’ 33 year old second sacker has experienced a decline over the last three years due to what seems to be a chronic knee problem. We still view Utley as a mid round option with a high ceiling, but don’t overvalue.

Shortstop- When the draft winds down to its final rounds, a reliable middle infielder can be your best friend.  To that end, we give you the always undervalued Stephen Drew. Returning from a broken ankle that ended his campaign, Drew is a late round option that will provide double digit HR with a strong possibility of 70 RBI in a much improved D’Backs’ lineup,

Third Base- We’ve reached the point where we have to categorize certain injuries as “steroid induced”. Such is the case with Alex Rodriguez, whose joints seem to be a deteriorating. When evaluating a player, we often talk about ceilings.  In A-Roid’s case, the more important discussion is the floor.  With 500 AB he can reasonably be expected to provide 30 HR and 100 RBI. Not bad for a mid-round pick.

Outfield- With Josh Hamilton, injuries are part of the equation.  He’s almost guaranteed to miss time every year.  However, he puts up huge numbers while he is on the field, making him worthy of a second round pick. Let everyone else in your league focus on Shin Soo Choo’s disappointing 2011 while you focus on his two consecutive 20-20 .300 seasons in ’09 and ’10.  While he did miss a huge chunk of last season with a thumb injury, he didn’t seem to have any lingering effects when he returned in September.

by Eddie Mayrose

We’ve all been there.  Having sat down at the draft table resolved to take big bats  first and fill out our pitching staff in later rounds, we’ve been faced with the dilemma of choosing between a rising young hurler and a big name guy coming off an injury. At that point, the rationalization process kicks in regarding the veteran.

“He’s on a contending team.  If he could just give me 150 IP, he’s a steal.” “Even though he missed all of last season, he says he’ll be ready for Opening Day.” Or, “I know he’s had shoulder problems but he’s still only 28 and his K rate was awesome when he’s healthy.”

That last one is my personal favorite, as it’s the rationale by which Rich Harden has landed on my roster in two of the last three seasons.  And, of course, I was burned each time.  As were the owners that convinced themselves that Erik Bedard or Brandon Webb would somehow be rejuvenated.  All these guys really do for you is inflate your waiver wire costs.

In an effort to prevent Fantasy owners from falling down the rabbit hole, (and maybe as a personal reminder of the pitfalls involved), FantasySportsDirt presents our list of those pitchers with impressive resumes that, sadly, now include a severe injury.

Scott Baker, Twins- He finally started to realize his potential through early August when a bad shoulder shut him down. While he lowered his ERA by more than a run, he’ll be returning to a much weaker Minnesota team and shoulder injuries really scare us.  Alternative: Wandy Rodriguez, Astros

Tommy Hanson, Braves- Did we mention that shoulder injuries really scare us? His motion is anything but graceful, leading us to believe the stress on his injured shoulder will continue.  He gets a little more latitude than the rest of the list because of his youth, but we’re worried that his woes will be chronic.  Alternative: Jaime Garcia, Cardinals

Phil Hughes, Yankees- If we were to take a shot on one guy, it would be Hughes.  His “dead arm” was never diagnosed as any specific injury, and he’ll be moved down in the rotation with the Yanks’ acquisitions of Pineda and Kuroda.  He’s dropped more than 20 lbs and is doing everything asked of him in camp so far.  Keep a watchful eye on him as the spring progresses.  Alternative: Randy Wolf, Brewers

Josh Johnson, Marlins- The biggest tease on the list. An absolute stud, WHEN HEALTHY, Johnson has a tough time staying on the field.  His risk-reward ratio is very high, so he’ll likely go earlier in your draft than he should. Let someone else roll the dice. Alternative: Jeremy Hellickson, Rays

Jake Peavy, White Sox- Do yourself a favor and take Peavy off of your draft list.  This tease has been going on for years; with no level of success.  Disregard the fact that he’s still only 30 and, instead, focus on his rising WHIP and ERA.  Alternative: Mark Buerhle, Marlins

Johan Santana, Mets- The Mets are saying all the right things about Santana being ready for Opening Day, but we’re not buying.  So far, he’s been limited to just 25 pitches per session.  Johan has managed to regain his form after serious injury before but, at 33, it’s less likely now.  Besides, that’s a really bad team he’s pitching in front of.  Wins may be few and far between.  Alternative: Matt Harrison, Rangers

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals-  OK.  If you’re in a keeper league, he’s your guy.  However, for 2012, we’re worried about his command- the classic obstacle for any returning from Tommy John surgery. While his September return was a very important step in his recovery, he’ll definitely be overvalued on Draft Day – Take a pass.  Alternative: Madison Bumgarner, Giants

Adam Wainwright, Cardinals- Two consecutive seasons of 230+ IP apparently took their toll on Wainwright’s elbow, resulting in TJ surgery.  Historically, pitchers have struggled in their first season back, and we expect the same here, as Wainwright is just a year removed.  Alternative: Matt Cain, Giants

by Eddie Mayrose

Your Roto-style league’s trading deadline has long since passed, your Fantasy Football season beckons and it seems like there’s no way to make a move in the standings with just four weeks left in the baseball season.  Don’t look now, but you’ve just handed the league title away.

While it’s true that the task of climbing to the top of the heap in September is difficult, it’s far from impossible.  If you’re within striking distance, a quick analysis of the statistical categories should point you in the right direction,

First, throw out any of the “average” categories- BA, OBP, WHIP and ERA.  It’s too late in the season for one player to impact what an entire team has done to this point.  However, in the “accumulated” categories such as HR, R, RBI, W, S, etc…, players currently on the waiver wire might just give you the bump you need.

For example, in the 40-Kane Fantasy League, there is currently a dogfight at the top; where just 1.5 points separate the top three teams.  Each of the three are tightly bunched in Runs scored, where a daily, three point swing is possible.  Any of the three contenders has an opportunity to distance himself by picking up a free agent with a hot bat.

If you’re in a Head to Head league, this advice still applies. As you start your playoffs, you’re chances can be significantly enhanced by a hitter or pitcher who can sustain a hot streak for a week, Finally, remember to disregard a player’s poor performance to this point.  All you need to worry about is their production over the last month.

Forget, for a second, that you’ve spent most of the summer cursing Alex Rios for the pathetic production that cost you a ninth round pick.  Rios has suddenly found his stroke, with five multi-hit games over his last eleven. He’s still suffering from a power outage, but could help you if he can score and steal bases.

Mariners’ phenom, Dustin Ackley, has had an up and down rookie season, but is currently on an eight game hitting streak. Could be that Ackley has gotten his second wind in what is certainly a no-pressure situation in Seattle.

Rockies’ OF Dexter Fowler may finally be realizing some of the potential that made him one of Colorado’s top prospects.  He’s been very consistent since returning from a minor league stint and has absolutely been raking over the past week.

With Cincinnati out of the race, it’s time the Reds got a look at catching prospect Devin Mesoraco.  The rookie turned in a wonderful 2011, going .289-15-71 in AAA.  The aging Ramon Hernandez is likely not part of the club’s 2012 plans so, Mesoraco should get the lion’s share of the AB the rest of the way.

Not that many are paying attention to the Cubs, but those that are have taken notice of the fact that SP Randy Wells is currently one of the hottest pitchers in the game.  He’s 5-0 over his last seven starts and has averaged almost 7 IP over the same stretch.  His K/BB ratio says that he’s found a formula that should carry him through a strong final month.

by Eddie Mayrose

Dear Moonlight,

I’m writing  from here in August, 2011 to urge you, the 2012 Moonlight Graham, to remember a few, critical points as you sit down at the draft table.  Just a few suggestions that, if taken, should spare you the misery that your 2011 self has had to endure.

I feel this letter is necessary because, had I been fortunate enough to receive the same courtesy from the 2010 Moonlight, I’d at least have been reminded to stay away from the almost irresistible temptations that pop up during a Fantasy Draft.

It happens to all of us.  No matter how much we’ve prepared, there comes a moment during a draft where we must put our money where our mouth is.  To strike boldly and grab that young player we believe to be on the cusp of stardom and resist the fading star that MIGHT have another big season left.  To ignore position scarcity and bolster the roster with the most talented player available and, most of all, know in your heart that a history of injury will likely continue. Because I was weak this year, turned my back on solid info in favor of a few pipe dreams, I’m hoping that this letter will save you from the same pitfalls.

Don’t Reach for Catchers- Remember how happy you were when Joe Mauer was available in the fourth round?  You jumped at the chance to fill such a weak position with an All Star.  While  the oft-injured catcher was coming off another abbreviated season, you thought, “Hey, wasn’t it just two years ago that he was an MVP?  Surely he’s worth a fourth rounder.”  Not so, as it turned out.  Not only did he, again, spend a large part of the season on the DL, he’s managed just 1 HR and 21 RBI to this point in 200 AB, making him the weakest guy in your lineup. While Mauer has struggled, backstops drafted much lower or picked up as free agents have made Mauer look like a minor leaguer.  Alex Avila (.285-13-53), Yadier Molina (.293-8-40), Miguel Montero (.270-12-56), Jonathan Lucroy (.286-8-47) and Mike Napoli (.290-18-44) have all rewarded their owners with tremendous value on late draft picks.

Relievers Are Not a Priority- No matter how often we hear that Saves are Fantasy Baseball’s most unreliable statistic, it’s difficult to pass on established closers.  However, every year, there are a number of relievers that emerge from nowhere to provide more than twenty saves while an equal amount lose the job once play begins. How many of the following save artists were even on your draft lists back in the spring? Brandon League (26), J.J. Putz (25), Jordan Walden (24),Sergio Santos (22), Fernando Salas (22), Kyle Farnsworth (20) and Ryan Madson (19) all entered the season without the title of closer.  Yet, here they are, in early August, on their way to the totals you projected for the likes of Frankie Rodriguez, Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Broxton, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney; each of whom has been demoted.

Do NOT Draft Mets- The bane of any Fantasy owner is injury to anyone on his roster. It’s the one thing for which you can’t plan.  You know that trips to the DL will happen and can only keep your fingers crossed that there will be few of significant length. That’s why it’s so important to keep your squad free of any New York Mets; as you’ll be at the mercy of their quack medical staff, which has elevated the mis-diagnosis to an art form.

Johan Santana, likely back by the All Star break, according to the good doctors, just started a rehab stint and may not see the bigs this year.  Jose Reyes tweaked a hamstring in early July that was only going to cost him three days.  That turned into three weeks and crushed head-to-head players that kept him in their lineups during that first week.  David Wright’s back was to cost him four to six weeks that became ten.  Likewise, Angel Pagan, whose two to four week stint on the DL with an oblique strain became six.

Finally, the crowning glory of the esteemed physicians: The saga of Ike Davis and his ankle. After what seemed like a minor collision with Wright back in May, Davis, off to a terrific start, was lost for the season.  Yes, the season!  Turns out that poor Ike would have been in better hands had he seen Drs. Emmett Brown or Frank Burns.  Instead, the esteemed medical team of the Mets actually made his condition worse by placing the young 1B in a boot which restricted the very blood flow necessary for the ankle to heal.  Seems they missed some cartilage damage when they first took a peek, a tiny, little error that has Davis facing micro fracture surgery.

It’s enough of a challenge to replace your injured players when you’re dealing with accurate information.  With the Mets, however, you may as well flip a coin.  Their ineptitude in dealing with the health of their own players is an obstacle too big for Fantasy owners to overcome.

So, my 2012 brother, good luck.  Make sure there’s a copy of this letter somewhere amidst the literature that you bring to the draft.  Read it before you start and review it every few rounds.  If you do, there’s a chance you’ll, possibly, be strong enough to stay the course. Maybe.

Sincerely,
Moonlight

P.S.  The name Adam Dunn should never again be spoken at a Fantasy Baseball draft table.

by Eddie Mayrose

During the course of a Fantasy Baseball season, there will be a number of opportunities for you to make a run toward the top of the standings.  Early on, there’s a lot of competition for free agents as owners not satisfied with the roster they drafted try to upgrade. Quick evaluations to distinguish who starts from breakout seasons are necessary here but, unfortunately, are not that common.  Big chunks of a transaction budget are often spent with little bang for the buck.

Another is, usually, after the first trade of the season is made within your league.  That initial swap always seems to open the floodgates for a week or two as owners in contention vie to keep pace. Here, again, it’s important to be able to recognize a flash in the pan, although, with a larger body of work, it’s a little easier.

Then,as the Fantasy deadline approaches,sometimes a few weeks after the MLB deadline, the HAVES, gearing up for a stretch run to a title, pillage the rosters of the, by now, disinterested HAVE NOTS, who are simply looking to improve their positions heading into next year.

While most owners dip their toes into the water during these periods of the season, the guys that are also perusing the box scores on a daily basis are the ones usually doing most of the bragging over the winter.  They recognize that every day will present an opportunity to improve, even if just for a short time.  Free agents or your own reserve players on a hot streak,your own bench player two- start pitchers facing very weak teams or MLB bench players thrust into the lineup as a result of a trade or injury can all give you an advantage over those less diligent players. If any of these hidden gems can give you a statistical boost even for a few days,you might have all you need to raise a banner.

Derek Lee was shipped from Baltimore to Pittsburgh yesterday and gained 19 games in the standings.  More importantly, his return  to the National League should give him a huge boost in confidence.  Seemingly never comfortable with the Birds, the seasoned vet is now in the middle of a contenders’ lineup. Look for Lee to deliver overv the last two months.

Staying in Baltimore, the much-maligned Mark Reynolds has been on a small HR tear.  Now, it’s long been our position that Reynolds no longer belongs on your FAntasy roster and that still applies in most cases.  However, if you need some power, he’s up to 23 HR after poking two this weekend.  Take advantage of his mini hot streak but be ready to pull the plug.

Another all-or-nothing guy is Atlanta’s Dan Uggla, who has spent most of the season as a huge disappointment. So much so, that a 20 game hitting streak raised his BA to just .206.  The dingers that he was expected to provide are finally leaving the ballpark over the last few weeks, making him a must-play if you need power.

St. Louis 3B David Freese spent a good portion of the season on the DL.  For that reason, he’s still a bit under the radar, even though he’s hitting .319. A free agent in some mixed leagues, he’s got enormous value in the middle of a potent lineup.

The only thing holding back Royals’ 1B/DH Billy Butler is his lack of pop from a traditional power spot.  Butler slammed 3 HR this week and seems to be enjoying a power surge.

With the housecleaning finally done in Houston, Jason Bourgeois moves into the third spot in the order, adding another dimension to the speedster’s value.  Pick him up for the SB and be very happy when he provides a few RBI as well.