by Eddie Mayrose

Your Roto-style league’s trading deadline has long since passed, your Fantasy Football season beckons and it seems like there’s no way to make a move in the standings with just four weeks left in the baseball season.  Don’t look now, but you’ve just handed the league title away.

While it’s true that the task of climbing to the top of the heap in September is difficult, it’s far from impossible.  If you’re within striking distance, a quick analysis of the statistical categories should point you in the right direction,

First, throw out any of the “average” categories- BA, OBP, WHIP and ERA.  It’s too late in the season for one player to impact what an entire team has done to this point.  However, in the “accumulated” categories such as HR, R, RBI, W, S, etc…, players currently on the waiver wire might just give you the bump you need.

For example, in the 40-Kane Fantasy League, there is currently a dogfight at the top; where just 1.5 points separate the top three teams.  Each of the three are tightly bunched in Runs scored, where a daily, three point swing is possible.  Any of the three contenders has an opportunity to distance himself by picking up a free agent with a hot bat.

If you’re in a Head to Head league, this advice still applies. As you start your playoffs, you’re chances can be significantly enhanced by a hitter or pitcher who can sustain a hot streak for a week, Finally, remember to disregard a player’s poor performance to this point.  All you need to worry about is their production over the last month.

Forget, for a second, that you’ve spent most of the summer cursing Alex Rios for the pathetic production that cost you a ninth round pick.  Rios has suddenly found his stroke, with five multi-hit games over his last eleven. He’s still suffering from a power outage, but could help you if he can score and steal bases.

Mariners’ phenom, Dustin Ackley, has had an up and down rookie season, but is currently on an eight game hitting streak. Could be that Ackley has gotten his second wind in what is certainly a no-pressure situation in Seattle.

Rockies’ OF Dexter Fowler may finally be realizing some of the potential that made him one of Colorado’s top prospects.  He’s been very consistent since returning from a minor league stint and has absolutely been raking over the past week.

With Cincinnati out of the race, it’s time the Reds got a look at catching prospect Devin Mesoraco.  The rookie turned in a wonderful 2011, going .289-15-71 in AAA.  The aging Ramon Hernandez is likely not part of the club’s 2012 plans so, Mesoraco should get the lion’s share of the AB the rest of the way.

Not that many are paying attention to the Cubs, but those that are have taken notice of the fact that SP Randy Wells is currently one of the hottest pitchers in the game.  He’s 5-0 over his last seven starts and has averaged almost 7 IP over the same stretch.  His K/BB ratio says that he’s found a formula that should carry him through a strong final month.

by Eddie Mayrose

Dear Moonlight,

I’m writing  from here in August, 2011 to urge you, the 2012 Moonlight Graham, to remember a few, critical points as you sit down at the draft table.  Just a few suggestions that, if taken, should spare you the misery that your 2011 self has had to endure.

I feel this letter is necessary because, had I been fortunate enough to receive the same courtesy from the 2010 Moonlight, I’d at least have been reminded to stay away from the almost irresistible temptations that pop up during a Fantasy Draft.

It happens to all of us.  No matter how much we’ve prepared, there comes a moment during a draft where we must put our money where our mouth is.  To strike boldly and grab that young player we believe to be on the cusp of stardom and resist the fading star that MIGHT have another big season left.  To ignore position scarcity and bolster the roster with the most talented player available and, most of all, know in your heart that a history of injury will likely continue. Because I was weak this year, turned my back on solid info in favor of a few pipe dreams, I’m hoping that this letter will save you from the same pitfalls.

Don’t Reach for Catchers- Remember how happy you were when Joe Mauer was available in the fourth round?  You jumped at the chance to fill such a weak position with an All Star.  While  the oft-injured catcher was coming off another abbreviated season, you thought, “Hey, wasn’t it just two years ago that he was an MVP?  Surely he’s worth a fourth rounder.”  Not so, as it turned out.  Not only did he, again, spend a large part of the season on the DL, he’s managed just 1 HR and 21 RBI to this point in 200 AB, making him the weakest guy in your lineup. While Mauer has struggled, backstops drafted much lower or picked up as free agents have made Mauer look like a minor leaguer.  Alex Avila (.285-13-53), Yadier Molina (.293-8-40), Miguel Montero (.270-12-56), Jonathan Lucroy (.286-8-47) and Mike Napoli (.290-18-44) have all rewarded their owners with tremendous value on late draft picks.

Relievers Are Not a Priority- No matter how often we hear that Saves are Fantasy Baseball’s most unreliable statistic, it’s difficult to pass on established closers.  However, every year, there are a number of relievers that emerge from nowhere to provide more than twenty saves while an equal amount lose the job once play begins. How many of the following save artists were even on your draft lists back in the spring? Brandon League (26), J.J. Putz (25), Jordan Walden (24),Sergio Santos (22), Fernando Salas (22), Kyle Farnsworth (20) and Ryan Madson (19) all entered the season without the title of closer.  Yet, here they are, in early August, on their way to the totals you projected for the likes of Frankie Rodriguez, Andrew Bailey, Jonathan Broxton, Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney; each of whom has been demoted.

Do NOT Draft Mets- The bane of any Fantasy owner is injury to anyone on his roster. It’s the one thing for which you can’t plan.  You know that trips to the DL will happen and can only keep your fingers crossed that there will be few of significant length. That’s why it’s so important to keep your squad free of any New York Mets; as you’ll be at the mercy of their quack medical staff, which has elevated the mis-diagnosis to an art form.

Johan Santana, likely back by the All Star break, according to the good doctors, just started a rehab stint and may not see the bigs this year.  Jose Reyes tweaked a hamstring in early July that was only going to cost him three days.  That turned into three weeks and crushed head-to-head players that kept him in their lineups during that first week.  David Wright’s back was to cost him four to six weeks that became ten.  Likewise, Angel Pagan, whose two to four week stint on the DL with an oblique strain became six.

Finally, the crowning glory of the esteemed physicians: The saga of Ike Davis and his ankle. After what seemed like a minor collision with Wright back in May, Davis, off to a terrific start, was lost for the season.  Yes, the season!  Turns out that poor Ike would have been in better hands had he seen Drs. Emmett Brown or Frank Burns.  Instead, the esteemed medical team of the Mets actually made his condition worse by placing the young 1B in a boot which restricted the very blood flow necessary for the ankle to heal.  Seems they missed some cartilage damage when they first took a peek, a tiny, little error that has Davis facing micro fracture surgery.

It’s enough of a challenge to replace your injured players when you’re dealing with accurate information.  With the Mets, however, you may as well flip a coin.  Their ineptitude in dealing with the health of their own players is an obstacle too big for Fantasy owners to overcome.

So, my 2012 brother, good luck.  Make sure there’s a copy of this letter somewhere amidst the literature that you bring to the draft.  Read it before you start and review it every few rounds.  If you do, there’s a chance you’ll, possibly, be strong enough to stay the course. Maybe.

Sincerely,
Moonlight

P.S.  The name Adam Dunn should never again be spoken at a Fantasy Baseball draft table.

by Eddie Mayrose

During the course of a Fantasy Baseball season, there will be a number of opportunities for you to make a run toward the top of the standings.  Early on, there’s a lot of competition for free agents as owners not satisfied with the roster they drafted try to upgrade. Quick evaluations to distinguish who starts from breakout seasons are necessary here but, unfortunately, are not that common.  Big chunks of a transaction budget are often spent with little bang for the buck.

Another is, usually, after the first trade of the season is made within your league.  That initial swap always seems to open the floodgates for a week or two as owners in contention vie to keep pace. Here, again, it’s important to be able to recognize a flash in the pan, although, with a larger body of work, it’s a little easier.

Then,as the Fantasy deadline approaches,sometimes a few weeks after the MLB deadline, the HAVES, gearing up for a stretch run to a title, pillage the rosters of the, by now, disinterested HAVE NOTS, who are simply looking to improve their positions heading into next year.

While most owners dip their toes into the water during these periods of the season, the guys that are also perusing the box scores on a daily basis are the ones usually doing most of the bragging over the winter.  They recognize that every day will present an opportunity to improve, even if just for a short time.  Free agents or your own reserve players on a hot streak,your own bench player two- start pitchers facing very weak teams or MLB bench players thrust into the lineup as a result of a trade or injury can all give you an advantage over those less diligent players. If any of these hidden gems can give you a statistical boost even for a few days,you might have all you need to raise a banner.

Derek Lee was shipped from Baltimore to Pittsburgh yesterday and gained 19 games in the standings.  More importantly, his return  to the National League should give him a huge boost in confidence.  Seemingly never comfortable with the Birds, the seasoned vet is now in the middle of a contenders’ lineup. Look for Lee to deliver overv the last two months.

Staying in Baltimore, the much-maligned Mark Reynolds has been on a small HR tear.  Now, it’s long been our position that Reynolds no longer belongs on your FAntasy roster and that still applies in most cases.  However, if you need some power, he’s up to 23 HR after poking two this weekend.  Take advantage of his mini hot streak but be ready to pull the plug.

Another all-or-nothing guy is Atlanta’s Dan Uggla, who has spent most of the season as a huge disappointment. So much so, that a 20 game hitting streak raised his BA to just .206.  The dingers that he was expected to provide are finally leaving the ballpark over the last few weeks, making him a must-play if you need power.

St. Louis 3B David Freese spent a good portion of the season on the DL.  For that reason, he’s still a bit under the radar, even though he’s hitting .319. A free agent in some mixed leagues, he’s got enormous value in the middle of a potent lineup.

The only thing holding back Royals’ 1B/DH Billy Butler is his lack of pop from a traditional power spot.  Butler slammed 3 HR this week and seems to be enjoying a power surge.

With the housecleaning finally done in Houston, Jason Bourgeois moves into the third spot in the order, adding another dimension to the speedster’s value.  Pick him up for the SB and be very happy when he provides a few RBI as well.

by Eddie Mayrose

With the MLB trade deadline nearing and rumors about which players may be moved continue to dominate the headlines, Fantasy owners in championship contention must evaluate their own rosters while making sense of the ramifications of those deals made by their front office counterparts in the Major Leagues.

At this point in the season, the most direct method to upgrade one’s Fantasy team is usually via trade; as it is unlikely, except in the most shallow of leagues, that any viable free agents still live on the free agent wire.  Unlikely, that is, in mixed leagues, as there are even fewer options in AL and NL only formats.  That said, it is critical for any owner to focus on the most productive avenue to make the most valuable transaction possible.

In a previous column, we talked about the proper mechanics of a trade; that the focus should be on the statistical impact rather than equal value.  Let’s take that a step further today and offer up some names that could be helpful over the season’s final two months.

First, a quick glance of your position in the league’s categories is necessary.  Discount BA, OBP, ERA and WHIP and any other “average” statistics, as any player that you might acquire will not significantly impact those categories in such a short time.  Rather, it is the “accumulated” categories, especially SB, S and W where your new players will give you the largest return on investment.

The same criteria should be used when scanning the free agent wire; a resource that should offer an increasing amount of help as the MLB trade dust settles.  Here are a few ideas about guys that may enjoy a breakout second half.

San Diego’s Mike Adams is in line to take the Padres’ closer position once Heath Bell is moved.  Adams has been sensational this season, posting a 3-1 record with a miserly 1.20 ERA.  The only risk involved with Adams is that his tremendous performance has made him almost as attractive as Bell and his name has also beeen floated as a possible trade candidate.

Don’t be too quick to grab Jason Isringhausen, who’s picked up two saves sinse the Mets shipped Frankie Rodriguez off to Milwaukee.  It’s likely that he, too, is being showcased; making flamethrower Bobby Parnell the more logical choice to assume the ninth inning role.

In Florida, Emilio Bonifacio has become a fixture at the top of the lineup; creatin g havoc on the basepaths since Jack McKeon returned as skipper.  He’s grabbed 15 bags in that month, as oppposed to just 5 before the managerial change, and will bolster your squad’s total in runs scored, as well, especially with Hanley Ramirez and Logan Morrison waking up behind him.

Will Venable has not had the breakout year that some had predicted coming into 2011.  He has, however, managed to steal 18 bases in little more than 200 AB and will likely get regular playing time if the Padres move Ryan Ludwick.

The Astros’ Jason Bourgeois finds himself in the same boat as Venable.  He’s a terrific SB guy, (17 in 103 AB) and could be installed as a regular if Hunter Pence is granted a new address.

Danny Valencia has emerged as the answer for the Twins’ long standing 3B question.  As Minnesota continues its under-the-readr charge from 16 1’2 back in the AL Central, look for Valencia to play a huge role.  He’s better than his .232 average and probably has 9 HR and 40 RBI left in his pocket.

Don’t know why, and never like to recommend a turnaround for a 39 year old, but there’s no denying that Raul Ibanez’s bat has awakened from its season long slumber. We don’t hold out much hope for his BA to improve, but the HR potential in the Phillies’ Little League stadium cannot be ignored.  Keep an eye on the Beltran situation, though.  If the Mets’ RF heads south on the turnpike, Domonic Brown and Ibanez will compete for AB.

Eddie Mayrose, a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance, appears weekly on SiriusXm’s Fantasy Sports Network, Sirius CH 210, XM CH 87.

by Eddie Mayrose

With the Major League trading deadline just two weeks away, Fantasy players, especially AL or NL only owners, are following the progress of trade negotiations involving their star players.  Will Carlos Beltran continue his resurgence in New York, where he’s stated he like to finish his career? If not, will he end up in San Francisco, where home runs are as hard to come by as they are in CitiField?  The Yankees are in the market for another hurler, especially after retreads Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon threw batting practice in Toronto this weekend.  Could their failure mean a new address for Wandy Rodriguez?

As MLB general managers seek to gain equal value throughout the trade process, Fantasy owners are also approaching trade deadlines- many under the misconception that they, too, must receive compensation on a par with the players they relinquish.

Too often, Fantasy Owners use the wrong criteria to evaluate a trade.  They forget that ours is a game driven solely by statistics and with no regard for defense, contract status or a player’s ability to assimilate into his new environment.  As a result, many miss opportunities to solidify their title hopes.

Imagine picking up your Sunday paper to find that Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman had packaged RP Mariano Rivera in a deal that brought back Astros’ OF Michael Bourn.  It’s unlikely Cashman would still have a job when you finished your eggs. But, in the Fantasy world, this deal could lead to a Yoo-Hoo shower at the end of the season.

Let’s assume a few things in order to make an important point about this trade.  First, let’s assume that Rivera’s owner is a shrewd Fantasy player near the top of the standings.  Let’s also assume that a decent gap exists in the Saves category between him and the next owner in the standings.  Now, let’s analyze.
First, take notice of the description, “decent gap exists in the Saves category between him and the next owner in the standings”.  Our fictitious owner may not be leading in Saves.  Hell, he might even be near the bottom.  But, as long as he’s clear enough of the guy behind him, Rivera becomes expendable.

While Michael Bourn is a nice player, he’ll never be considered on the same level as Rivera.  You’d never give up the Hall of Fame reliever for Bourn in April or May.  However, halfway through the season, transactions tend to become more statistic specific. (Say that three times fast.)  Bourn is a huge resource for Stolen Bases, a category that could yield three or four points to Rivera’s owner.  At that point, Bourn is ABSOLUTELY Rivera’s equal, making the deal a solid one.

Then there is the most discerning of Fantasy player; the guy who’s always ahead of the curve.  The guy that sees opportunity that no one else does. We’ve already put our pretend owner near the top of his standings.  Now let’s put him just a few points ahead of his closest rival.  A quick look at the standings may indicate that the owner in second place might be just a Save or two ahead of Bourn’s owner.  Thus, by trading Rivera for Bourn, he may be taking a point away from his closest competitor in a very tight race.

The point of this exercise, and the best advice we can give you, is to not allow your ACTUAL baseball brain affect your FANTASY baseball thinking when making a deal that could bring you a championship.  Remember, even in keeper leagues, “Flags Fly Forever”. If you’re in a position to go for the gold, pull out all the stops.

Eddie Mayrose is a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance and appears on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio every Sunday with Craig Mish.  Sirus Channel 210, XM channel 87.

by Eddie Mayrose

The wailing and gnashing of teeth will begin later today as Major League Baseball announces the players that will represent their league in next Tuesday’s All Star Game.  That was actually a carefully written sentence, as quite a few of those named have accomplished nothing close to what a discerning baseball fan would consider All Star stats.  In a well-intended system intended to encourage fan participation that has, instead, degenerated into a popularity contest, many actual stars will be watching from their living rooms while less deserving players enjoy the spotlight.

More than a few factors contribute to this annual mess, not the least of which is the voting process. Want a good laugh?  Don’t scream about the fact that Troy Tulowitzki currently leads Jose Reyes in the balloting at shortstop.  Scan down the page for the real joke: that more than a million think that Yuniesky Betancourt belongs in the game.

The fact that each team must be represented also damages the game’s credibility, creating a distinct disadvantage for the NL, which must fill two more required spots than the AL. Then there’s the nonsense by which the managers have discretion over the selection of substitutes; often abusing the privilege to accommodate their own players.

When the game was simply an exhibition, these imperfections were easily forgiven.  However, after Bud Selig decreed that the outcome of the game would determine home field advantage in the World Series, they became serious problems.  How can you determine something so important while not allowing either league to assemble its best possible roster?

There are no such obstacles in naming Fantasy All Stars; where sleepers make champions and a simple formula of combining production and draft round makes the process of recognizing the season’s best very easy.  And awaaaaay we go!

Catcher- Detroit’s Alex Avila is an easy choice here, as he was likely plucked from the free agent wire in mixed leagues.  He’s already surpassed his projected numbers for the whole season.
NL- Mr. Dependable, the Braves’ Brian McCann.  One of the game’s most underrated players.

First Base- Even though he’s spent most of the year in the St. Louis outfield, Lance Berkman came into the 2011 fantasy season eligible only at first base.  Following an injury plagued 2010, Berkman went undrafted in many mixed leagues and was certainly not  a priority for NL-only owners, either.  His .297-21-59 first half, however, has been amazing; as is the fact that he’s playing everyday.
AL- Paul Konerko gets the nod over Adrian Gonzalez, based on a much later draft position.

Second Base- The chalk held here as Robinson Cano has justified his lofty status by outperforming all other second basemen.  Funny, his numbers, while terrific, are off of last year’s pace, giving rise to the idea that he’s underperforming.  Tough to disappoint at .291-14-54 in the middle infield.
NL- Nats’ rookie Danny Espinoza edges Brandon Phillips.

Third Base- Tell the truth. You never thought Jose Bautista could duplicate last season’s performance.  Well, you were right- he’s better. He gets the nod no matter where he was selected.
NL- Chicago’s Aramis Ramirez reigns over a field weakened by injuries to David Wright and Pablo Sandoval.

Shortstop- Asdrubal Cabrera has been the biggest reason for Cleveland’s resurgence and was probably still available in the second half of most mixed drafts.
NL- Alex Rodriguez called Jose Reyes “the best baseball player in the world.”  Who are we to argue with such an authority?

Outfield- After a disappointing 2010, even the biggest Matt Kemp fan would be surprised to see him in the middle of one of the greatest fantasy seasons ever. Curtis Granderson is suddenly hitting left-handed pitching on his way to a 30-30 season and no one could have seen 9 HR and 40 RBI coming from Boston speedster, Jacoby Ellsbury, over the first half of 2011.
Honorable Mention-Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen and Justin Upton.

Starting Pitcher- In a year where pitching has dominated, Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens has posted an incredible first half that has rewarded owners that took him in the latter stages of most drafts. Cole Hamels has returned significant value, as have Jered Weaver and the game’s hottest hurler, Justin Verlander. Rounding out our starting five is Tampa’s James Shields, who’s matched the great Roy Halladay, almost stat for stat.
Honorable Mention- Halladay, Philip Humber, Ian Kennedy, Michael Pineda and Clayton Kershaw.

Relief Pitcher- Atlanta’s young stud, Craig Kimbrel, has rung up 24 saves with an incredible 67 K in just 42 IP.
AL-  Sergio Santos was Chicago’s third choice and, apparently, its last.

Eddie Mayrose appears weekly with Craig Mish on SiriusXM’s Fantasy Sports Network — Sirius Channel 210, XM Channel 87 and can be seen by Fios customers on “Down in Front” with co-host Tom DeAngelo. Check local listings.

by Eddie Mayrose

Ray Kinsella: “Fifty years ago, for five minutes you came within… you came this close.  It would KILL some men to get so close to their dream and not touch it.  God, they’d consider it a tragedy.”

Dr. Archibald “Moonlight” Graham: “Son, if I’d only gotten to be a doctor for five minutes… now that would have been a tragedy.”

One of our favorite scenes from the classic, “Field of Dreams”, regarded by FantasySportsDirt staff as the greatest film ever made.  While we admire Moonlight’s dedication to the wonderful people of Chisholm, Minnesota, we can’t help but wish that Giants’ manager John McGraw had “waved a bony finger in my direction” just a few innings earlier, enabling the rookie to get that one Major League at bat that had eluded him.

With just about half of the 2011 season in the books, maybe we can pave the way for Moonlight to combine his two passions, as our mailbag is filled with letters from patients complaining of many symptoms that have their Fantasy Baseball teams under the weather and seeking advice.  Whattaya think, Doc?

Hey Doc,

I’m in a 5×5 mixed league, no keepers.  I’m also a huge fan of the White Sox.  Can’t get enough of ‘em.  White Sox, White Sox, White Sox. Problem is, I tend to run my Fantasy team the same way. That backfired on me this season as I missed out on Konerko and Quentin and, instead, ended up with Rios and Dunn, both of whom are absolutely killing me. Do you think they’ll rebound in the second half or should I cut ‘em loose?

Howie
Maxwell, Kansas

Howie,
My first suggestion is that you make drastic changes to your strategy.  It’s never a good idea to have too many players from one team.  That said, here’s what I think of Rios and Dunn.  Neither has a place in your lineup right now but Rios doesn’t even deserve a spot on your roster.  I can understand your desire to be patient with Dunn, given his past performance.  But there’s no ignoring the fact that he has just one hit vs. LHP in three months.  Stash him on your bench and hope that, somehow, he starts hitting the ball.  Rios has to go, however, as his disastrous 2011 is merely a continuation of the decline that started in Toronto two years ago.  No pop, no bags AND no BA make it easy for me to recommend a Rios-ectomy.  Good luck the rest of the way.

Dr. Graham,
My league is a weekly, head to head, no keepers.  I’m strong in the outfield but could use a closer.  Aside for the top tier guys, is there a closer that you think might help me in the second half that I could get for either Brennan Boesch or Seth Smith?

Richie J.
Horsehead, Montana

Richie,
The easy answer to your question is the closer that I’d target: Matt Capps of the Twins.  Minnesota is on a tear, having won 15 of the last 18, and will no doubt make their usual second half run.  Capps has been solid filling in for Joe Nathan, who doesn’t seem any closer to returning.  The guy I’d give up, however, may surprise you.  I’d trade Boesch, even though he’s doing slightly better than Smith.  The Tigers’ outfielder had a similar first half in 2010 before flaming out spectacularly while Smith is enjoying his first year as a regular and is in a much better park.  Besides, Boesch may yield more than just Capps at this point.

Moonlight,

I’m in a dynasty league and recently opened up a spot for a minor leaguer through a trade.  Is there a farmhand out there that you think might help his team in 2012?

Lynn
Cee Crease, Florida

Lynn,
Evaluating Minor Leaguers is as inexact a science as possible, with many different leagues and talent levels muddling the statistics.  However, if I had to pick one guy that’ll be in an opening day lineup next season it’d be Pull Goldschmidt in Arizona.  Fresh off a 2010 season that saw him hit 35 dingers with 108 RBI and a .314 BA, Goldschmidt has picked up right where he left off.  The D’Backs’ top prospect is currently tearing up the AA Southern League to the tune of .324-23-65 in just 72 games.  He’s your guy.

Gee, Can They Keep It Up?

After Friday night’s dominating performance against the Pirates, Dillon Gee’s record stood at 7-0, a level never before seen by a Mets’ rookie. Gee has made the most of the opportunity presented to him as a result of the many injuries with which New York has had to deal to this point, no doubt bolstering the chances of many Fantasy Owners that took a chance and plucked him from the free agent wire. The young hurler hasn’t convinced everyone, however, as he’s owned in just 65% of the leagues on CBSSportsline.  Those owners that are hesitant to jump on board are, no doubt, wondering if Gee has already peaked and an acquisition at this point is too late; something the late, great Forte Bellino of the Hausier’s Krowedum Fantasy League used to describe as, “Missed the wedding, made the funeral.”

In Gee’s case, his production  is supported by his peripheral stats, especially his AAA numbers, where he posted a terrific K/BB ratio last season.  That Gee has now established himself in the Mets’ short rotation, also reassures potential owners that he’ll have plenty of opportunity the rest of the way.  If you need pitching, Gee is a solid pickup in our book.  Should you be one of the sharp guys that picked him up early, hang on.  As for other players who have surprised so far, let’s shine the Moonlight on a few and take a look.

In Cleveland, just about every aspect of their season has come out of nowhere, none more so than the perfomance of Asdrubal Cabrera, Fantasy Baseball’s best shortstop in 2011.  The 25 year old has exploded on to the scene with 12 HR and 42 RBI in leading the Tribe to the top of the AL Central.  Cabrera has never hit more than 8 HR in any pro season, so expect the dingers to flatten out. He’s always been a high BA guy, though, so the RBI should be just fine.

Alexi Ogando is the latest product of Nolan Ryan’s “Shut up and pitch” school in Texas.  Like Gee, he’s also 7-0 after going undrafted in most leagues.  More impressive than his record, however, is the WHIP and ERA he’s logged.  The Rangers philosophy of allowing starters to go deep into games will surely benefit Ogando, a keeper the rest of the way.

Nationals’ outfielder Michael Morse is on pace for 25 HR after banging out 15 in half a season last year.  A number that should be of greater importance to Fantasy owners, perhaps, is the 49 K he’s registered in just 177 AB.  Morse is a perfect example of a guy to ride during a hot streak, as is Corey Patterson right now, but not someone with long range prospects.  Dump him in on someone else in a trade before he starts his second tour around the National League.

Can’t argue that Matt Joyce has been Tampa’s best hitter to date; making many forget that Carl Crawford is no longer patrolling left field.  We’d feel better about Joyce if he was a little younger, but have to respect the prowess of the Rays’ developmental system.  They had to have an idea this was coming.

Some Projected Stars Continue to Disappoint

Every Fantasy Baseball season introduces us to player performances that we never could have anticipated, and 2011 has not disappointed.  There has been the incredible rebirth of Lance Berkman in St. Louis and the jaw dropping performance of Jose Bautista in Toronto, where the Jays’ star has actually followed a breakout season with another.  We’ve had the surprise performances of Dillon Gee and Alexi Ogando, two hurlers that certainly went undrafted in all but the deepest leagues, each now sitting at 6-0.  Not many of us had heard the names of Darwin Barney or Justin Turner before the season started, but the two middle infielders have delivered more than 20 RBI apiece, giving a huge boost to owners, especially in NL only formats.  In Detroit, Alex Avila has burst on the scene with 8 HR and 31 RBI, while Asdrubal Cabrera has become the best shortstop in the majors.

While these and quite a few other success stories will no doubt be the ones recounted by league champions as the acquisitions that put them over the top, they are not the season’s most remarkable.  That title belongs to the surprisingly large number of stars that have broken from the gate in disastrous fashion.  We’re not talking about Joe Mauer or David Wright, disabled studs taken in the first or second round, as injuries are the obstacles that Fantasy Owners must, annually, overcome.

We’re referring, instead to the alarmingly large contingent of once reliable players whose production has been spectacularly disappointing.  Those guys that you sneer at every morning when you look at the box scores, usually to the tune of something like, “I wasted a fifth rounder on you, you stiff!”   For some reason, 2011 has given birth to more than its share of these season-killers, and we’d like to take a look at a few while offering an opinion on whether a turnaround is likely.

Catcher- Carlos Santana, Cleveland’s young stud returning from knee surgery, is limping along with a .226 BA .  However, we’re still confident that the Tribe’s switch-hitting backstop will rebound, as the knee may be more of a factor than a simple sophomore jinx.

First Base- None other than Moonlight, himself, expected a career year from Adam Dunn after his acquisition by the White Sox.  An annual 40 HR guy, he’s now in a great hitters’ park surrounded by a great lineup.  Patience is running thin for the ChiSox first sacker, as he’s been completely unable to raise his BA above the Mendoza line.  Things have been so bad for Dunn that an infield single the other night was his first base knock against a lefty all season.  If you can’t  trade Dunn, it’s time to cut ties.

Second Base- Show me a guy with 30-30 potential and I’ll show you a player that Fantasy owners can’t resist. That temptation has bit many on the backside this year, as Ian Kinsler muddles along with a .  Part of the reason may be that, with Josh Hamilton and Nelson Cruz out, Kinsler has been bounced around the lineup. Now that they’ve both returned, Kinsler is back in his customary leadoff spot.  Keep a wary eye on Kinsler, never a high BA guy, as it’s uncertain how much last year’s injury has impacted his performance.  At a thin position, you’re probably forced to keep him in the lineup, but a trade would probably help you more than keeping him. There isn’t much Moonlight love for Kinsler.

Third Base-  We know what you were thinking.  “It’s late, I need a 3B and Reynolds was a 40-20 guy just two years ago.  Let me take a shot”.  How’s that working out, so far?  Here’s the deal: Mark Reynolds does NOT belong on a Fantasy roster.  No matter how many HR he gives you, his peripherals will absolutely kill you; especially in a points league where K’s cost you.  Drop him now and don’t look back.

Shortstop- You bought into the Jeter propaganda, didn’t you?  Coming off the worst season of his career at age 37, Derek Jeter was something of a wild card in most drafts.  Shortstop is a thin spot and he does have an impressive resume an d maybe 2010 was an anomaly.  So, after grabbing him and crossing your fingers, you’ve spent the last two months watchin Asdrubal Cabrera light it up while Jeterv looks overmatched.  His .261 BA is bad enough and his .329 OBP is worse.  But, the true indication of how far he’s fallen is the measly 10 extra base hits he’s produced so far.  Jeter’s through. Move him or dump him.

Outfield- Maybe Freddi Gonzalez knew what he was doing early on when we were all killing him for batting Jason Heyward so low in the Braves’ order.  Much has gone wrong for Atlanta’s highly touted prospect, but not enough to change our opinion.  He’s a great buy low candidate, especially in keeper leagues.

Starting Pitcher- Maybe Ubaldo Jimenez has spent too much time trying to find his name on a gift shop license plate.  The Rockies’ ace has struggled since laast year’s All Star break and, only this week, registered his first win.  It was a four hit shutout, however, possibly a sign of good things to come.  We have no explanation for why he’s had such a tough time, but remain cautiuosly optimistic that he can turn things around.

Relief Pitcher- Getting burned by a reliever is an annual rite of passage for Fantasy owners and this year, Joakim Soria is the culprit.  He’s temporarily lost the closer’s role in Kansas City, but we expect he’ll eventually reclaim it.  He’s worth a stash on your roster, but monitor his K total if and when he returns.

No More Calls…We Have a Winner

It happens every spring. As certainly as the tulips will bloom, Major League Baseball owners will victimize fans with their own, annual scam, known on these pages as Arbitration Fraud.

According to the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the owners and the players association, a player with three or more years of service, but less than six years, may file for salary arbitration. There is another category called “Super Two”, in which players with more than two years and less than three who have accumulated 86 days of service in the previous season are also arbitration eligible.  If, that is, they rank in the top 17% of service time for ALL players. So, if the promotion of a player is held up for two months, he will is likely to fall below the Super Two line and will definitely have another season added before he makes the three year mark.

To that end, many small market teams assign their top prospects to their AAA affiliates when they break camp, no matter how dire their needs.  While the “head fake” given to the fans is always something along te lines of”…he needs more seasoning”, the actual reason is that the organization is delaying the start of the “Arbitration clock” by a year, thus delaying his first big payday.  This “seasoning”, always comes, miraculously, around the end of May, no matter who the player might be.

At first glance, this seems like a fiscally responsible practice, especially considering that salaries have run amok over the last decade.  Upon closer examination, however, this amounts to nothing more than fraud, as owners continue to charge top dollar for tickets and advertising while KNOWINGLY not putting their best product on the field.

Suppose you were looking to buy a new car. After finding a graet price on a fully-loaded vehicle, you head to the dealership, only to find that the only one remaining is a car that is not as completely equipped. Cloth seats instead of leather, standard rasio rather than satellite and no GPS.  Would you still pay the price of the one that was fully loaded?  Of course, not. Yet that is exactly what Bud Selig and his merry band of carpetbaggers do every year, much to the chagrin of Fantasy Baseball owners.

For the last five years, there has been at least one elite young player that has been kept down by the parent club.  As a result, Fantasy Owners have been forced to endure this process, knowing full well that the player they’re waiting for should be in the Major Leagues.  In 2007, a season generally considered to be Alex Rodriguez’s best, the Milwaukee Brewers delayed the promotion of Ryan Braun, who, form the time of his debut, posted better statistics than ARod, who won the AL MVP.  The following season saw a twist on the fraud, as thw Twins buried Francisco Liriano in AAA as he was recovering from surgery.  Liriano started the season in Minnesota, but needed more time to rehab his elbow and was legitimately demoted.   He remained in Rochester for three months, however, deszpite posting a 10-1 record with an ERA below 2.00. Not until his agent threatened to file a grievance was he recalled.

Matt Wieters took the award in 2009, forced to wait while the Orioles named the much traveled  Pat Borders their starter. His BA was below the Mendoza Line when Wieters finally arrived. Catchers made it two years in a row last season, when the Indians decided Carlos Santana wasn’t quite ready for duty.  Funny, he went right into the third slot in the order upon his promotion.

Until this week, the 2011 Arbitration Fraud Award was a two man race between Eric Hosmer of the Royals and San Diego’s Anthony Rizzo. Kansas City, perhaps recognizing a window of opportunity with the Twins, White Sox and Tigers off to disastrous starts, pulled the trigger on Hosmer, jettisoning the putrid Kila Ka’ahuie, whose name must be Hawaiian for, “Punch and Judy”.  All Hosmer did, while Kiahuue was flailing at air for six weeks, was bat .439 in 21 games with 3 HR, 15 RBI and an OBP of .525, a tad better than Ka’ahuie’s .195 BA.

That left  Rizzo as our 2011 recipient.  While Brad Hawpe has treated Padres’ fans to a .179 BA with just 1 HR and 6 RBI, Rizzo has ripped through 29 Pacific Coast League games to the tune of a .397 BA with 10 HR and 42 RBI.  But, apparently, Rizzo needs just a bit more “seasoning”.  About two weeks more, I would imagine.

Bobby Carr, owner of Citizens Kane in the 40-Kane Fantasy Baseball League, has been the unfortunate victim in four of these cases and he’s currently sitting on Rizzo.  “This quote has been attributed to a lot of people.  I first heard it from Bill Parcells and it’s one of the few notions I’ve ever come across that is always correct”, said Carr. “When they say it’s not about the money, it’s ALWAYS about the money.”  In this case however, it’s also about Fantasy Owners taking one in the shorts.