Timing is Critical in Tweaking Your Roster

by Eddie Mayrose

Got a call this week from one of my favorite patients, Marc Hibsher, of the 40Kane Fantasy Baseball League.  It wasn’t entirely pleasant, as he was having difficulty following the method for Fantasy Baseball success that I had prescribed for him shortly after his draft.

“OK, Doc”, he began.  ” I get the whole patience thing.  I agree that the first two weeks aren’t a large enough sample of how the season will unfold and that I can do more harm than good by being hasty.  I actually agreed with you, as hasty has never been a good fit for me.  Actually, hasty has always gotten me in trouble.”

“However, I’m a month into my season and I’ve got a guy riding Matt Kemp and Josh Hamilton and running away with my league.  Now, can I do something?”

Well, Marc, I’m going to say yes, but advise moderation.  The danger you face in pulling the plug on some of your draft picks is to ship guys out that are on the verge of breaking out, while others that you desire may have a bit of a false resume.  You could end up with a non-substantive squad as empty as a newspaper with no news.

Let’s bulldozier our way through some Buy Low, Sell High and Stay Put candidates and see if we can rehabilitate your roster.

Buy Low

Gavin Floyd- The White Sox hurler has made a career as an adequate starter.  His stated goal coming into 2012 was a 20 win season; something that looked out of reach during his slow start. However, he’s now lowered his ERA to 2.53 after his latest outing while sporting a career-best K rate ans a WHIP below 1.00.  Jump on him  if you can.  He won’t cost much if you’re quick.

Adam LaRoche- Long a second half of the season superstar, LaRoche has finally gotten off to the kind of start that leads to a career year.  His OBP is the biggest indicator, sitting at a robust .430 in the middle of a solid lineup. Don’t expect his OPS to ramain above 1.000, but he’ll give you a great return on investment.

Sell High

Erik Bedard- If you were fortunate enough to scoop Bedard in the late rounds, you’ve had a nice run to this point. He’s given you a nice K rate and good ERA; stats that have hidden weaker peripherals.  He’s had a tough time going deep into games and his WHIP is an awful 1.37. Dump him before he turns south.

Hunter Pence- He hasn’t responded well to being the star of the dilapidated Phillies’ lineup, struggling along with a horrible OBP of .300.  Pence is still a guy with enough star quality to bring a decent price if you move fast.

Stay Put

Lance Lynn- The common thought about this largely disregarded phenom is that he’ll be coming back to earth very soon.  Don’t be so quick to buy into that theory, as the emerging Cardinal ace will see a good number of starts against weak divisional foes like Houston, Pittsburgh and Chicago.  Hang on to him.

Albert Pujols- Even though he’s shaping up to the biggest bust in Fantasy history, there is no recourse but to stay the course at this point. The only bids you’ll receive will be significantly discounted, and you’ll be furious when he finally does start to rake if he’s doing it for someone else.

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One Response to “Moonlight Graham’s Fantasy Forecast: Are We There Yet?”

  1. Thought summary…So you want Pence obviously? I will take Hamilton, you know they are going to find cork from wine bottles in his bat soon. (okay, mean joke), but I will suffer with that possibility. I am immortalized being an up close part of your column. LOVE the use of the word Hasty. Oh, and Doc I am only messing with the bottom portion of my roster to the tune of 50+ moves looking for a 4th closer to save my front 5-7 for the innings max. No, I am not going to catch the leader but my current 2nd place position would be acceptable under the circumstances. Finally, will my Yankee first baseman whose name I now refuse to say and my Shortstop who needs to find a Travolta masseuse to work on his groin issues ever start putting up the numbers of my new-found hero Edwin Encarnacion?

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